ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Just look at the euro ensembles...they have shifted north

[LaBreeze]

Just look at the euro ensembles...they have shifted north

How much of a shift Ivanhater?

[Ivanhater]

Just look at the euro ensembles...they have shifted north

How much of a shift Ivanhater?

This is the Euro ensembles from last night..before none of them were showing Texas...now...

[Portastorm]

The Para GFS seems to be aligning more with the ECMWF. Both now bring this south of the United States (Texas). Just wouldn't put much stock in the old GFS (read the MWatkins post on it).

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

You've got that wrong. Its not aligning more with the Euro...its aligning less. if you go back to the 00Z run last night...it brought it in about 150 miles south of BRO. Now it brings it in at BRO. There was almost no spread b/w the Euro and para GFS at 00z. Now there is almost a 150 mile spread.

As far as the GFS...read what Stacey Stewart said about it in the 09Z discussion.

As far as the Euro is concerned...one only has to read my posts to understand that I am as big a EURO pimp as the next guy...but what none of us EURO pimps want to seem to talk about is this FACT: The EURO runs have consistently moved the 500 mb feature inland but maintained a sfc feature near the coast. The 12Z run moves the 500Mb low inland south of BRO but keeps the sfc low right at the coast for 4 days...

And that just aint right. Something is NOT right with what it is seeing.

I'm glad you mentioned this as I have seen little discussion about it. I also saw that surface reflection well after the 500mb feature of Alex goes inland per the Euro and wondered "well where did THAT come from?"

[thetruesms]

Hey, remember those 12 or so hours when all the models were generally on the same page and had a rough agreement? Ah, the good old hours

[Brent]

Hey, remember those 12 or so hours when all the models were generally on the same page and had a rough agreement? Ah, the good old hours

Those were the days...

and very interesting post AFM.

[Air Force Met]

Those were the days...

and very interesting post AFM.

It's been doing it for multiple runs now. Go back to Friday morning's run...it keep a broad 1010mb trof in the western Gulf. Its like it doesn't want to progress the sfc pattern

[KWT]

Hey, remember those 12 or so hours when all the models were generally on the same page and had a rough agreement? Ah, the good old hours

Oh yeah though even then the CMC was refusing to join the party, and now its slowly getting more support for its ideas...so we still have two camps though it does seem like they are closing in on each other somewhat with the southerly group slowly moving thier way northwards...

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z HWRF:



Landfall just south of Corpus Christi, near Baffin Bay.

[Air Force Met]

18 Z HWRF initial still looks to be north of BRO...but a south of the previous run...

[KWT]

I wonder whether the 18z GFDL can come up with a more realistic solution than its 12z run which took it NNE then bent it due west...strange run, far more odd than the ECM run thats for sure!!

[Air Force Met]

I wonder whether the 18z GFDL can come up with a more realistic solution than its 12z run which took it NNE then bent it due west...strange run, far more odd than the ECM run thats for sure!!

There is a small group of people on here that just hate the Euro. If Alex ends up hitting TX...and the EURO is an epic FAIL...and gets PWNED...we will never hear the end of it.

[KWT]

HWRF takes it nearly due north inbetween 6-12hrs...that doesn't seem all that likely to come off even if it does take a more northerly route...

[Ivanhater]

GFDL another odd track but further north with Brownsville

[KWT]

I'm really unsure of what exactly the GFDL is trying to do, I think its got the right idea in terms of track but its just going way wide of the mark in the first 24hrs, baffling!

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL another odd track but further north with Brownsville

Strange track, turns it almost NNE tonight and tomorrow and then eventually sends it due west to Brownsville.

[ROCK]

safe to say IVAN the trend is still north...might be evening out some..I think the HWRF was a little more north on its last run from the previous....we will see tonights run....another late night it seems..

[Ivanhater]

safe to say IVAN the trend is still north...might be evening out some..I think the HWRF was a little more north on its last run from the previous....we will see tonights run....another late night it seems..

Rock take a look at the loop I posted on the other thread...look at the outer bands moving due north to even NE...The trough is really digging and an ULL over East Texas...I expect 00z models to respond...

[Nederlander]

safe to say IVAN the trend is still north...might be evening out some..I think the HWRF was a little more north on its last run from the previous....we will see tonights run....another late night it seems..

Rock take a look at the loop I posted on the other thread...look at the outer bands moving due north to even NE...The trough is really digging and an ULL over East Texas...I expect 00z models to respond...

just a hunch, but I think the Euro will be in Texas after tonights run.. that ULL is doing some damage to that ridge..

[ROCK]

safe to say IVAN the trend is still north...might be evening out some..I think the HWRF was a little more north on its last run from the previous....we will see tonights run....another late night it seems..

Rock take a look at the loop I posted on the other thread...look at the outer bands moving due north to even NE...The trough is really digging and an ULL over East Texas...I expect 00z models to respond...

I see it now....yep definetely models are going to shift....hell the CMC might have been right fro some time now...