ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[SFLcane]

Think the european model has this nailed if you asked me. The core has clearly taken a beating but should recovery nicely based on the ideal conditions aloft.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS exp version: 114h (brownsville)

[Nederlander]

Even the GFS PARA run has it moving on a NNW to N heading

yeah the GFS para has been hanging out with ECMWF if im correct

[Ikester]

Eventually the Euro or the GFS will have to give. It's not going to stay split forever....which will it be???

[vaffie]

If this 18Z model run hitting Matagorda Bay were to pan out, SE Texas would start experiencing an on/off steady rain as early as Wednesday morning, with the rain increasing in intensity slowly for 72 hours. That's a lot of rain!

[Ivanhater]

Yep, regualr gfs has upper Texas coast and the GFS PARA has moved north in the last few runs. It used to be in the Euro camp

[Nederlander]

Eventually the Euro or the GFS will have to give. It's not going to stay split forever....which will it be???

Euro has already been giving in some.. we shall see if the trend continues.. but yeah there is still a huge split that spans the entire texas coastline..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New EXP GFS just South of Brownsville at landfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_108l.gif

[gatorcane]

The Para GFS seems to be aligning more with the ECMWF. Both now bring this south of the United States (Texas). Just wouldn't put much stock in the old GFS (read the MWatkins post on it).

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

[Wx_Warrior]

The GFS para model will be used over the original in a few weeks.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

And looks alot better than the Operational one.

[Nederlander]

The GFS para model will be used over the original in a few weeks.

what happens if the operational GFS outdoes the GFS para?

[Ivanhater]

Look at the trends guys..the Para used to be MID MEXICO yesterday, even the para has moved to Texas...

Yesterday's run showing mid Mexico



Regular gfs still showing upper Texas coast

[F-dubWxGuy]

:eek: Is this gonna be another Rita scenario? What is that area over SE LA on the 96hr run?

That might be a disturbance riding along a stalled front. The front is forecast to stall north of the Gulf Coast by Tuesday and persist for some time.

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[ROCK]

ok so we go with the ops or the old GFS? sheesh....

[TTheriot1975]

What direction is Alex heading at this point and what is the ridge doing at this time?

[KWT]

Yeah the Para GFS is very close to a landfalling US system, really wouldn't need much of a shift to get a hurricane to hit the US at the first time of asking.

The Para GFS is sorta now in the middle of the two camps of solutions, the fact is quite a lot of the models have shifted northwards when compared to thier respective 12z runs yesterday...will need to watch Alex very closely in the next 24hrs...

[Nederlander]

Yeah the Para GFS is very close to a landfalling US system, really wouldn't need much of a shift to get a hurricane to hit the US at the first time of asking.

The Para GFS is sorta now in the middle of the two camps of solutions, the fact is quite a lot of the models have shifted northwards when compared to thier respective 12z runs yesterday...will need to watch Alex very closely in the next 24hrs...

Remember how we all talked about last nights euro run being huge?.. well tonights may be even bigger.. the next couple of runs for the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF should tell us a lot

[Air Force Met]

The Para GFS seems to be aligning more with the ECMWF. Both now bring this south of the United States (Texas). Just wouldn't put much stock in the old GFS (read the MWatkins post on it).

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

You've got that wrong. Its not aligning more with the Euro...its aligning less. if you go back to the 00Z run last night...it brought it in about 150 miles south of BRO. Now it brings it in at BRO. There was almost no spread b/w the Euro and para GFS at 00z. Now there is almost a 150 mile spread.

As far as the GFS...read what Stacey Stewart said about it in the 09Z discussion.

As far as the Euro is concerned...one only has to read my posts to understand that I am as big a EURO pimp as the next guy...but what none of us EURO pimps want to seem to talk about is this FACT: The EURO runs have consistently moved the 500 mb feature inland but maintained a sfc feature near the coast. The 12Z run moves the 500Mb low inland south of BRO but keeps the sfc low right at the coast for 4 days...

And that just aint right. Something is NOT right with what it is seeing.

[ROCK]

The Para GFS seems to be aligning more with the ECMWF. Both now bring this south of the United States (Texas). Just wouldn't put much stock in the old GFS (read the MWatkins post on it).

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=108361

You've got that wrong. Its not aligning more with the Euro...its aligning less. if you go back to the 00Z run last night...it brought it in about 150 miles south of BRO. Now it brings it in at BRO. There was almost no spread b/w the Euro and para GFS at 00z. Now there is almost a 150 mile spread.

As far as the GFS...read what Stacey Stewart said about it in the 09Z discussion.

As far as the Euro is concerned...one only has to read my posts to understand that I am as big a EURO pimp as the next guy...but what none of us EURO pimps want to seem to talk about is this FACT: The EURO runs have consistently moves the 500 mb feature inland but maintained a sfc feature near the coast. The 12Z run moves the 500Mb low inland south of BRO but keeps the sfc low right at the coast for 4 days...

And that just aint right. Something is NOT right with what it is seeing.

Man, I wish I had that statement before I made all those "I love the EURO" posts....