EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[Chacor]

2052 GMT, 115 kt:

0059 GMT, 135 kt:

[Chacor]

The TPC/TAFB now have Celia at T7.0/7.0, joining the SAB. More and more likely the NHC will just go straight to 140 kt and Cat 5 at the advisory...

[bombarderoazul]

Wow a Cat 5 storm! not a bad start for the Epac, then again last year was a hot season as well.

[Brent]

Looks like a Cat 5 IMO.

Reminds me of Isabel when it peaked in the Atlantic.

[bahamaswx]

Thats one pretty storm.

[gatorcane]

[CrazyC83]

I don't think ANYONE expected this. It would be like a Cat 5 in mid to late July in the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

good example how the models can really miss the intensity forecast. They did not expect this much strengthening as noted in the latest NHC disco.

[Kingarabian]

good example how the models can really miss the intensity forecast. They did not expect this much strengthening as noted in the latest NHC disco.

What's more interesting is that this storm followed a mysterious pattern.

Strengthens then weakens, then strengthens and weakenes again, now its shooting for the moon.

Edit: Looks like the NHC is going to give it 135 kt's.

[Macrocane]

Truly amazing The WPAC and the Atlanctic have been inactive so far so the energy of the tropics must be used in some way and the North Indian and the EPAC have found that way.

[cycloneye]

Impressive loop. Mother nature at it's best.

[Kingarabian]

It was yesterday when were agreeing on how bad Celia looked on radar.

[HURAKAN]

Azúcar!!!

[Chacor]

Here we go...

CAT 5!

WTPZ24 KNHC 250242
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
0300 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

...CELIA BECOMES A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER OPEN WATERS...NO
THREAT TO LAND...

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 250243
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SYMMETRIC
HURRICANE WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN...WELL-DEFINED
EYE...AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T7.0...140 KT. THESE
DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KT...MAKING CELIA A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. CELIA WILL SOON PASS OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE RAPID
WEAKENING COMMENCING BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW. LATER ON... GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE HURRICANE...WHICH
SHOULD AID THE WEAKENING PROCESS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS NOW
MOVING 285/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND
CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF CELIA
DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE HURRICANE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AT
THAT TIME... LEADING TO A LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE BEST BET
AT THIS POINT IS THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN STEERING
CURRENTS GETTING QUITE WEAK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5... AND THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CELIA AT THAT TIME FRAME.

CELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
IN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W 140 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 140 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W 115 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Macrocane]

No surprise, well I'm surprised to see a category 5 hurricane in the EPAC in June, but I'm not surprised given the impressive and beautiful satellite appearence, what a nice and exciting storm!

[bvigal]

WOW! I can appreciate the beauty and symmetry of Celia, since she's headed away from land! That's some BD.

[RL3AO]

Geez. I missed a lot today. Very very impressive storm.

[neospaceblue]

And to think that it was just a Category 2 this morning.

BTW, I think that this is the first time that the EPAC had a Category 5 for two consecutive years.