ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Chacor]

Will be good to finally see recon flying for the first time this season!

The Plan of the Day has called for recon three days in a row now. The last two days, it was cancelled.

And, sorry I'm plugging this here, for those who enjoy the sheer brilliance of hurricanes, have a look over at the EPac Hurricane Celia thread. It's nearly annular and almost a Cat 5.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing for certain, there is a lot of moisture coming up with this system, I think everyone from Texas clear to FL Panhandle could see a good bit of rain from this especially if that trough sets up along the Gulf Coast.

[KWT]

Will be good to finally see recon flying for the first time this season!

The Plan of the Day has called for recon three days in a row now. The last two days, it was cancelled.

True but this time I think we are at the point in the game where I think they will want to try and find a LLC, esp if the convection remains...

[South Texas Storms]

does 93L remind yall of hurricane dolly a few years ago? it looks pretty similar to me.

[Air Force Met]

does 93L remind yall of hurricane dolly a few years ago? it looks pretty similar to me.

A buddy of mine made a similar comment earlier. Hope it doesn't mean Igor is going to cream Galveston....

[Nimbus]

Down at the low levels the circulation was elongated earlier in the day. This latest convective plume may focus the energy. It will be interesting to see the model runs once they get a clear LLC fix on this thing.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been following this quietly as well, but this doesn't remind me of Dolly too much. For some reason, I'm actually reminded of Tropical Storm Bill from 2003 and Hurricane Cindy from 2005. The time of the year is similar, and I know a popular early forecast for Cindy took it into Texas as a minimal hurricane. Yet, both of them landfalled in the same general area, in eastern Louisiana, and even took similar paths getting there and beyond.

I dunno, it could easily end up in Mexico or Texas, but I get a vibe that this may be another Bill or Cindy. Time will tell though!

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

Latest TAFB graphic at 72 hours:. Ridge (jagged line) appears to be breaking down over Texas and WGOM:

[thetruesms]

Can't talk a lot about that, as I'm participating in conference calls with them. What I can say is that they're paying very close attention to this disturbance and I've told them that the earliest that they might see squalls which could shut down helicopter evacuation operations is on Tuesday. They won't stay on location if there is a significant threat of a TS/H heading their way. And it'll be a VERY big deal if they have to abandon the capturing of oil and the relief wells. Let's hope it heads to Mexico and/or it doesn't develop.

I can't really talk about it either...since I am in the loop on the DHS/NORTHCOM side of the house...but what said...

How many of us around here are involved with spill response? That's at least three, though I'm more of a backstop than consistently involved

True but this time I think we are at the point in the game where I think they will want to try and find a LLC, esp if the convection remains...

Yeah, I'm fully expecting that the schedule for tomorrow will go through now that there's something to go looking for

[cycloneye]

Latest 850MB vorticity data has expanded. AFM,what does this tells you, relocation may be more NE?

[gatorcane]

What a nice upper anticyclone sitting over the Western Caribbean. The reason why you see the convection blowing off to the South right now is because it is still under the influence of some northerly shear on the east side of this upper high. But by this time tomorrow, should be right underneath the upper high where ideal conditions will be present:

[canetracker]

The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been following this quietly as well, but this doesn't remind me of Dolly too much. For some reason, I'm actually reminded of Tropical Storm Bill from 2003 and Hurricane Cindy from 2005. The time of the year is similar, and I know a popular early forecast for Cindy took it into Texas as a minimal hurricane. Yet, both of them landfalled in the same general area, in eastern Louisiana, and even took similar paths getting there and beyond.

I dunno, it could easily end up in Mexico or Texas, but I get a vibe that this may be another Bill or Cindy. Time will tell though!

-Andrew92

Me too and totally agree. I hope wherever it hits that it will do the least amount of oil spill damage to the coastlines.

[Kludge]

My non-professional observation would be:

In order to build into anything beyond the peak status of a minimal depression, this blob better hurry up and intensify quickly. Otherwise, the Yucatan will Yuca-tear it apart.

Without a quickening of forward speed, or an abrupt northward turn, or a stall in the campeche bathtub, the chances of building into a substantial storm before a final landfall seem unlikely.

If it were to slide across the Yucatan and somehow survive, then stall as a result of the "front"... over the jacuzzi gulf waters... then all bets are off. At that point, Alex would be able to take its time and do a thorough assessment, and then decide "whose ass to kick".

[Time_Zone]

My non-professional observation would be:

In order to build into anything beyond the peak status of a minimal depression, this blob better hurry up and intensify quickly. Otherwise, the Yucatan will Yuca-tear it apart.

Without a quickening of forward speed, or an abrupt northward turn, or a stall in the campeche bathtub, the chances of building into a substantial storm before a final landfall seem unlikely.

If it were to slide across the Yucatan and somehow survive, then stall as a result of the "front"... over the jacuzzi gulf waters... then all bets are off. At that point, Alex would be able to take its time and do a thorough assessment, and then decide "whose ass to kick".

I wouldn't say it's likely to die if it clips the Yucatan.

[HURAKAN]

00z

[Ivanhater]

ASCAT

Looks like we have a closed low

[Macrocane]

I agree it will survive the Yucatan Peninsula, it will probably weaken but will survive unless it spends a lot of time inland. Some examples of systems that have survived Yucatan:

2005 Stan
2005 Wilma
2007 Dean
2008 Dolly

[Sanibel]

Could be a center split with one nearer to the convection.


I think crash and burn on Honduras on this course...

[cycloneye]

ASCAT

Looks like we have a closed low

Still kind of broad.

[CourierPR]

What a nice upper anticyclone sitting over the Western Caribbean. The reason why you see the convection blowing off to the South right now is because it is still under the influence of some northerly shear on the east side of this upper high. But by this time tomorrow, should be right underneath the upper high where ideal conditions will be present:

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, Gatorcane, you were telling us that this would not develop and that the models were lining up in agreement. Welcome aboard the bandwagon.