ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

maybe someone can help me understand this.. I am looking at the IR shortwave loop and to me it appears the LLC is near 16N-78W.. isnt this farther east than where we thought it was?

You won't be able to find any LLC using IR imagery tonight. And what we're seeing are indications that an LLC may be forming, it's quite weak. Can only find it with high-res visible imagery and/or surface obs.

[Air Force Met]

No reason to upgrade before recon gets there tomorrow afternoon. There would have to be quite compelling surface obs to do so beforehand.

I agree...and short of something that is undeniable...that's probably what will happen.

[Nederlander]

slightly OT: anybody thats anxious to see something pretty.. go take a look at a vis loop of celia.. wow

[SunnyThoughts]

AFM and Wxman57.... Do you think if this is upgraded tomorrow, as both of you seem to think is probable, Will the calls go out to the relief workers in the gulf, digging the relief wells, to batten down and get to shore? Or will it depend on trends in the models as possibly the storm could actually miss that area to the WEST or be a very weak system if some of the models are correct? I guess i'm wondering if you think enough lead time will be in play, for them to wait longer than a day or so to decide what to do as it takes quite a while for them to shut everything down and get to safety..

[Dean4Storms]

slightly OT: anybody thats anxious to see something pretty.. go take a look at a vis loop of celia.. wow

Really impressive!

[South Texas Storms]

Irak are you worried at all about 93L hitting corpus?

[CrazyC83]

Given its current direction, there are only two reasonable analogs - the 1921 and 1922 tropical storms. I don't see it going into the oil spill zone or anywhere farther east. I'd say either a Texas or Mexico system (with two Mexican landfalls the most likely scenario IMO).

[wxman57]

AFM and Wxman57.... Do you think if this is upgraded tomorrow, as both of you seem to think is probable, Will the calls go out to the relief workers in the gulf, digging the relief wells, to batten down and get to shore? Or will it depend on trends in the models as possibly the storm could actually miss that area to the WEST or be a very weak system if some of the models are correct? I guess i'm wondering if you think enough lead time will be in play, for them to wait longer than a day or so to decide what to do as it takes quite a while for them to shut everything down and get to safety..

Can't talk a lot about that, as I'm participating in conference calls with them. What I can say is that they're paying very close attention to this disturbance and I've told them that the earliest that they might see squalls which could shut down helicopter evacuation operations is on Tuesday. They won't stay on location if there is a significant threat of a TS/H heading their way. And it'll be a VERY big deal if they have to abandon the capturing of oil and the relief wells. Let's hope it heads to Mexico and/or it doesn't develop.

[Air Force Met]

Can't talk a lot about that, as I'm participating in conference calls with them. What I can say is that they're paying very close attention to this disturbance and I've told them that the earliest that they might see squalls which could shut down helicopter evacuation operations is on Tuesday. They won't stay on location if there is a significant threat of a TS/H heading their way. And it'll be a VERY big deal if they have to abandon the capturing of oil and the relief wells. Let's hope it heads to Mexico and/or it doesn't develop.

I can't really talk about it either...since I am in the loop on the DHS/NORTHCOM side of the house...but what said...

[South Texas Storms]

wxman57, should i be worried about feeling effects from this system from corpus christi to san antonio?

[vbhoutex]

If there is an LLC to be seen I would place it at 16.5N, 82.5W, not any further East. 93L is definitely wrapping up now. Visibles should be very telling in the morning if this system really doing what it appears to be doing. Looks like an interesting weekend ahead for GOMers.

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks wxman57 for the reply, I share your sentiments in that last sentence of your text.

[dixiebreeze]

Pressure down to 1006. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wxman57]

wxman57, should i be worried about feeling effects from this system from corpus christi to san antonio?

I wouldn't worry in San Antonio. May be some rain for Texas next week. Odds are after crossing the Yucatan that it won't have enough time to really organize into a strong hurricane prior to landfall if it heads to northern MX or south TX.

[lrak]

Irak are you worried at all about 93L hitting corpus?

You bet I am, its too hot not to have electricity. In my younger day I would welcome any storm. Waves from storm swell in S. Pardre are awesome. As good as the Pacific breaks.

Anyone think the swell and tides from any storm west of the oil won't push water to the N and Eastern Gulf? Higher tides! It seems any big storm in the Gulf this year is going to be nasty

[South Texas Storms]

ok thanks. so i shouldnt expect any strong winds here because it wont be that strong if and when it hits the texas coast?

[South Texas Storms]

Irak are you worried at all about 93L hitting corpus?

You bet I am, its too hot not to have electricity. In my younger day I would welcome any storm. Waves from storm swell in S. Pardre are awesome. As good as the Pacific breaks.

Anyone think the swell and tides from any storm west of the oil won't push water to the N and Eastern Gulf? Higher tides! It seems any big storm in the Gulf this year is going to be nasty

Yeah i think corpus is due for a hurricane. You guys havnt had a direct hit in a while right?

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Statements
903
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-024

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 17.5N 83.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 26/0200Z
D. 18.0N 84.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/090

[KWT]

Will be good to finally see recon flying for the first time this season!

93L still looking pretty good at least on IR!

[srainhoutx]

Thanks guys. Your input is appreciated.