EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

That IR image is actually a stonker, I'd imagine its about 120kts right now though the eye isn't quite as sharp and cloud free as it was.

[antonlsu]

Small compact, but dangerous storm!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

what a beautiful hurricane, I can say this with all honesty and no guilt because it is safely spinning out in the middle of nowhere. Nature can truly be breathtaking.

[CrazyC83]

Not sure what Dvorak says, but I would guess about 125 kt.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JUN 2010 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 12:57:16 N Lon : 115:24:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 914.2mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.6 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[clfenwi]

SAB's rating

25/0000 UTC 13.0N 115.4W T7.0/7.0 CELIA -- East Pacific

[bob rulz]

Wow, I was just about to say, this looks like it's around 145-150mph. This is extremely impressive for a late June hurricane.

[Chacor]

T7.0 would mean 140 knots, or Category 5 strength.

[clfenwi]

Best track says:

EP, 04, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1154W, 135, 932, HU

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive cyclone. Certainly has been interesting to track.

[Chacor]

1 knot shy of a Category 5 hurricane. Would become only the second June EPac Cat 5, as far as I can tell.

[Chacor]

00z SHIPS is out. Celia becomes a Cat 5 on the most recent SHIPS run, peaking at 142 knots.

EDIT: The AHI (annular hurricane index) on the 00z SHIPS run says Celia is marginally annular. Wouldn't that be something, an annular category 5.

How about being more flexible in the topic title to reflect the RI? Maybe "HURRICANE CELIA - has undergone RI - DISCUSSION"

[clfenwi]

Didn't exactly rock the index, but it did clear the screening for annular hurricane.

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[KWT]

Wow 135kts...Jeez!!!!

What an amazing hurricane, its really set the benchmark for the Atlantic this year...

[bob rulz]

And it still has 2 more hours of intensification before the advisory comes out, so it theoretically could become a cat 5 at 8pm.

This is incredible - we could have a category 5 in the EPac before we have even a single tropical cyclone in the Atlantic!

[Chacor]

[cycloneye]

Fortunaly is a fish. On another note,the EPAC continues to sprint in the ACE numbers. For information on the ACE numbers go to the 2010 ACE thread at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=107339&hilit=&p=1996376#p1996376

[Air Force Met]

Wow 135kts...Jeez!!!!

What an amazing hurricane, its really set the benchmark for the Atlantic this year...

This is why I became a meteorologist. These things are beautiful...until they are at your doorstep.

[HURAKAN]

OMG!!! Celia's having a good night!!!

[CrazyC83]

Good thing this isn't headed for anyone!