ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[somethingfunny]

Sounds like Dolly v.2

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't miscount $$$ in the morning! LOL

[Brent]

and I stayed up for this.....NO more I tell you...

LOL!

[Weatherfreak000]

The spread will probably shift more towards the right and away from mexico. we've been through this time and time again...EURO is a west outlier... HWRF is a right outlier. What's NOGAPS say?

[South Texas Storms]

the models are driving me crazy! i just want to know where this thing is going already! dont yall feel the same?

[southerngale]

and I stayed up for this.....NO more I tell you...

Yeah, right. See you tomorrow night. Same time, same place.

[ROCK]

Well...the spread in the models continues

I blame you Ivan... night night time for me....


Peace out

[Ivanhater]

so the spread now is anywhere from mexico to new orleans it appears...
that sure is a big spread

Mexico to Florida! Crazy.

Yep, Euro is furthest south with Mexico...HWRF furthers east around Destin, Florida....glad we got it narrowed down tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

The spread will probably shift more towards the right and away from mexico. we've been through this time and time again...EURO is a west outlier... HWRF is a right outlier. What's NOGAPS say?

the nogaps is actually my favorite model presently. it has a weak tropical system moving wnw into south texas!

[southerngale]

the models are driving me crazy! i just want to know where this thing is going already! dont yall feel the same?

If you're going to track tropical systems, particularly something that hasn't even developed yet, you're going to have to learn some patience, or you'll drive yourself and the rest of us crazy.

[South Texas Storms]

the models are driving me crazy! i just want to know where this thing is going already! dont yall feel the same?

If you're going to track tropical systems, particularly something that hasn't even developed yet, you're going to have to learn some patience, or you'll drive yourself and the rest of us crazy.

haha yeah i know. this helps me to get up in the morning though!

[ROCK]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots


clear as mud!!

[South Texas Storms]

is there a chance that this system doesnt develop at all?

[KWT]

Very interesting ECM run, looks like it hits somewhere close to where Bret/Stan made landfall in 2005. ECM looks way too slow to landfall, will probably be inland in 48hrs or so...also makes something of the leftovers behind 93L as well...

Anyway year there is a lot of spread, I feel the westerly models are more likely given the models that recurve are showing one hell of a trough which I think is overdone.

[AJC3]

Very interesting ECM run, looks like it hits somewhere close to where Bret/Stan made landfall in 2005. ECM looks way too slow to landfall, will probably be inland in 48hrs or so...also makes something of the leftovers behind 93L as well...

Anyway year there is a lot of spread, I feel the westerly models are more likely given the models that recurve are showing one hell of a trough which I think is overdone.

The 24/00Z ECM actually brings 93L inland near Veracruz, MX Tuesday morning. The system that it brings up to near Brownsville on 3 July is actually the leftovers that you mention. The model spins up the second low between 150 and 180 hours out as it crosses from east of the Yucatan to the Bay of Campeche.

[KWT]

Oh I know, I mean the ECM is way to slow on the first landfall, this will probably be nearly on the other side of the Yucatan by 72hrs, yet alone not even on land for its first hit, the rate its going at now it'll be inland by 48-60hrs...small differences but might make all the difference to this system.

[ronjon]

What I don't understand is why the HWRF has consistently shown hurricane type pressures (below 990 mb) yet only tropical storm force winds - any explaination from the METs would be helpful.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010062400-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Ah the HWRF has a very poor pressure-wind relationship because the way it is created, I wouldb't use the HWRF for the pressure but for the wind speeds.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the ECMWF and GFS are now both showing a wave that heads west through the Yucatan and into the BOC. The ECMWF develops a weak TS in the BOC and pushes it into Mexico. The GFS just pushes the wave into Mexico. At this point I like the consistency I am seeing with the global models and the solution from these models has been the one I have gone with for 93L since the beginning.

Looking through the posts, I am not sure why so many put down the GFS when it appears the ECMWF has veered towards the GFS solution? I do like the ECMWF as well but it's hard to believe it when one run it shows a major hurricane in the GOM and another completely drops that solution. The GFS has been consistent run after run with 93L.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree at least with the track idea, but as Wxman57 said its because the models are showing a different wave now trying to develop, the lead wave that is 93L is not the one that is needed to be watched but the one to its east.

That explains the sudden shift well southwards again of the ECM because a system further east doesn't get scooped up by the weakness that is impinged.