ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[wxwatcher91]

Starting to look like something now on satellite. The original LLC is WAAAY west and out of the picture. Even the NHC doesnt outline it in the TWO. It's the MLC and the divergence maximum that matters, and it looks like they're starting to get along.

Models still initializing 93L with the LLC. 18z was at 16.6N 78.6W

Unless a new invest is named, 00z should initialize somewhere near 17N/73W, a full 5 degrees east lol

[CourierPR]

The ECMWF run has now aligned itself with the GFS as I expected. The trend is definitely more west with the models as large-scale ridging looks like it will build in from the Central plains SE towards the GOM, at least that is what the global consensus is at the moment. The difference is that the ECMWF develops a stronger system that goes into Mexico while the GFS keeps the system into Mexico as a wave.

You always try to post in an authoritative manner, as though you are a meteorologist. Do you have a degree in meteorology or atmospheric science?

[HouTXmetro]

BAMMS following the EURO...

actually the EURO followed the BAMMS.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Wise choice. GFS is horrible.

[CourierPR]

Just finished watching a video featuring two AccuWeather meteorologists, sans JB, who deliver a careful analysis of 93L and its potential development into next week, using NHC models and the GFDL. They forecast conditions conducive for development and a more northerly track. They said that the GFDL model has been a reliable model in the past. The video can be sourced on the free site.

[bvigal]

Wise choice. GFS is horrible.

Agree! And nothing new, in my opinion. GFS is our main daily weather model here, I look at it every single day, 365/yr for wind, direction, precip and each day get to see how close it was (vs the NAM) in predicting our weather - it's pretty good. But, in 11 hurricane seasons, I've found myself paying less and less attention to it concerning tropical formation.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

EURO has always been our first model of choice for Tropics.

[Stormcenter]

You gotta love Accuweather for their dramatics. They go with the outlier model that brings 93L closer to the states. We shall see.

Just finished watching a video featuring two AccuWeather meteorologists, sans JB, who deliver a careful analysis of 93L and its potential development into next week, using NHC models and the GFDL. They forecast conditions conducive for development and a more northerly track. They said that the GFDL model has been a reliable model in the past. The video can be sourced on the free site.

[Weatherfreak000]

You gotta love Accuweather for their dramatics. They go with the outlier model that brings 93L closer to the states. We shall see.

Just finished watching a video featuring two AccuWeather meteorologists, sans JB, who deliver a careful analysis of 93L and its potential development into next week, using NHC models and the GFDL. They forecast conditions conducive for development and a more northerly track. They said that the GFDL model has been a reliable model in the past. The video can be sourced on the free site.

Two things are gonna happen here probably:

1. It develops in the 54 hour timeframe...still a long time from now....the models seem to be respecting the shear here...the GFDL just believes it can fire up when it closed off days from now. Indeed when it makes it to 80W it'll be under absurdly high SST's and heat potential. It could be Rapid Intensification, in which case the GFS and EURO solutions are foiled. Florida then a possible target if your following the HWRF...I personally dislike it.

2. It continues to stagnant and not gain much latitude, slam into the Yucatan and then, depending on its intensity when it hits the Yucatan can definitely gain alot of latitiude and strike just about anywhere in Mexico or Texas...or even swing back towards the Central Gulf.


I'm fascinated by these invests this year. The Climatology almost seems through out the window half the time and we hardly even notice it. 93L is an exercise of strict timing, all of which is necessary for model input.


Edit: Wxman57, if your reading this I have a question just a thought. If you thought development would occur by tomorrow or friday and it potentially happening on saturday having a huge effect as far as verifying the GFDL?

[Ivanhater]

Dynamical models. Of course , this depending on if something develops. I don't know why it cant consolidate.

[Aquawind]

The ECMWF run has now aligned itself with the GFS as I expected. The trend is definitely more west with the models as large-scale ridging looks like it will build in from the Central plains SE towards the GOM, at least that is what the global consensus is at the moment. The difference is that the ECMWF develops a stronger system that goes into Mexico while the GFS keeps the system into Mexico as a wave.

You always try to post in an authoritative manner, as though you are a meteorologist. Do you have a degree in meteorology or atmospheric science?

Nahh. He does good job posting.. He just slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night and is feeling 100%..

[HouTXmetro]

Dynamical models. Of course , this depending on if something develops. I don't know why it cant consolidate.

BIG IF

[KWT]

To be fair the 12z ECM looks fairly realisitic to me, I think thats the most likely track as well, because I think the GFS suite of models are somewhat being ambitous with the upper trough. Either way your going to get moisture into texas as Darby comes up as well.

[MGC]

GFDL brings a fairly stong TC into central Louisiana on the 12Z run. GFS don't even have Darby plotted. Nogaps brings a weak TC into western La. We shall see. 93L is still a mess.......MGC

[CrazyC83]

At this point, I'm not sure if it will even recurve at all...it might just head into Central America and develop in the EPAC...

[KWT]

I'm pretty sure it'll gain enough latitude in time Crazy fo it to not really be an issue in the EPAC, even the ECM which is the furtherest south would still not emerge south enough for that to occur...

What is the GFDL showing at the moment, and when is the 18z run out for it?

[tolakram]

At this point, I'm not sure if it will even recurve at all...it might just head into Central America and develop in the EPAC...

Might want to look at the wider view. Due west right now takes it deep into Mexico.

[Ivanhater]

Just a note from the NHC DISCO on Darby about the GFS...

BOTH THE GFS AND
GFS-PARALLEL RUNS TAKE A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING DARBY QUICKLY
WESTWARD...WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO POOR MODEL
INITIALIZATION.

[lonelymike]

Looks like 93 is deciding between Cajun or Tex-Mex

[Rockin4NOLA]

Looks like 93 is deciding between Cajun or Tex-Mex

Haha well thats one way of putting it...we'll know how "hungry" it is soon enough.