EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Making the push for major status

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Iune]

Celia and Darby

[cycloneye]

Major Hurricane at 2 PM PDT advisory

EP, 04, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1098W, 100, 960, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[brunota2003]

Two peas in a pod. Glad they developed in the EPac, versus where they were trying to develop before in the Atlantic!

I will say this...Celia looks 100 times better on visible imagery than she does on infrared. On visible, she looks like an easy Cat 3, nice and beautiful like you'd expect from a mature, strong hurricane. On infrared, she looks like a disorganized mess, maybe a Cat 2 at most. No real, deep ring of convection around a solid, well formed eye.

[Macrocane]

That's how I like the storms strong but fish. I agree that it looks better in visible tan IR.

[Aquawind]

Beautiful eye and a fish as well.. Good Girl Celia!!!

[HURAKAN]

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[hurricaneCW]

Hmm we are going into a La Nina aren't we? What an active 10 days for the east pacific. Luckily for them, most storms go OTS although Darby may threaten land in the future. I'm thinking the east pacific activity will greatly relax in a couple of weeks and the Atlantic will begin given the progression of ENSO conditions.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 105 kt now.

As for the activity, I think it is all the storms trying to develop in the Atlantic but never get going become food for the EPAC. We're not in La Nina yet.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010

CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE EYE NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AND WARMER THAN EARLIER AND THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5/102 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 100 KT...A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE IT IS
OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THE CYCLONE REMAINING IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN NUDGED UPWARD...DUE TO THE INITIAL HIGHER INTENSITY...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
EROSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 12.3N 110.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 12.6N 112.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 13.1N 114.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 13.8N 117.0W 110 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 119.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[KWT]

Yeah looks like it has a decent chance of making it to category-4, amazing how explosive the EPAC season has been...

Who needs the Atl season when you have this sort of EPAC season, poor old Atl can't even throw a TD together yet alone a Major!

[Macrocane]

That's what I think, if the Atlantic doesn't give you anything interesting, another basin will, and the best thing is that EPAC storms are generally fish.

[Aquawind]

NOOOOO!!!!! Jinx.. Alex in the morning... j/k

[KWT]

Looks to be about 105 kt now.

As for the activity, I think it is all the storms trying to develop in the Atlantic but never get going become food for the EPAC. We're not in La Nina yet.

FWIW thats what I think as well, the Atlantic is powering up the waves but its not quite there yet, so the stronger waves form in the EPAC where conditions aloft are good enough...will probably see August/September go a similar way to the last 2 weeks in the EPAC have done in the Atlantic.

[alan1961]

Celia and Darby

Beautiful...celia feeding of the ITCZ..and Darby hot on her heels.
nice image phoenix

[Rockin4NOLA]

Celia and Darby

Beautiful...celia feeding of the ITCZ..and Darby hot on her heels.
nice image phoenix

Get 'er Darby, get 'er!

[HURAKAN]

00z

EP, 04, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1110W, 90, 971, HU

Not a major anymore

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 240244
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010


THE DEVELOPMENTAL TREND THAT CELIA WAS EXPERIENCING EARLIER HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. AN 2129 UTC AMSU-B
OVERPASS DEPICTED A CLOSED EYE BUT THE INNER CORE ORGANIZATION OF
THE HURRICANE HAS DETERIORATED FURTHER SINCE THEN. IN ADDITION...A
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS SHRUNK
CONSIDERABLY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 AND
5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE THESE AND THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF CELIA IS
LOWERED TO 90 KT.

RECENT CENTER FIXES...THOUGH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...YIELD THE SAME
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/11. LARGE-
SCALE MODELS SHOW CELIA MAINTAINING A WESTERLY MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTH. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO IMPART CELIA WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH AT
LEAST 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS..MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...TAKING IT BACK ON A WESTERLY COURSE AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE RECENT INTENSITY TRENDS ARE PUZZLING...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT
HAS LED TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CELIA REMAINS IN A VERY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OR PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT-TERM. CELIA SHOULD REACH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48
HOURS AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD BECOME FASTER TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE
WHICH NO LONGER STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AS MUCH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 12.4N 111.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 12.8N 113.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 115.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 14.1N 118.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 14.8N 120.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 16.2N 125.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

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