ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro rolling

48 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

Way south again on this run....

[vaffie]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

South of the Texas/Louisiana border, drifting west or northwest at 240 hours. It appears to me that the run to run differences in the Euro hinge on whether or not a big low pressure forms in New England. When a big one forms like in this run, the high pressure over the Deep South pushes "Alex" to the west at the end of the run. When the low in New England is weak, it pushes north into Louisiana or even further eastward.

[Blown Away]

Where did the GFS and EURO initialize?

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif

South of the Texas/Louisiana border, drifting west or northwest at 240 hours. It appears to me that the run to run differences in the Euro hinge on whether or not a big low pressure forms in New England. When a big one forms like in this run, the high pressure over the Deep South pushes "Alex" to the west at the end of the run. When the low in New England is weak, it pushes north into Louisiana or even further eastward.

Thats still yesterday's 12z EURO run. The latest 12z EURO run has only updated to hour 48 so far.

Update: Now hour 168 out too, but the other hours have yet to update. Southerngale's posted image below looks to show a much further south track on this run.

[southerngale]

[Big O]

A poster on another forum says the European sends 93L into the Mexican coasts 200 miles south of the TX/MX border at 192h. This is more in line with the previous ensemble runs, which have been relatively consistent in sending 93L towards northern Mexico or extreme deep south Texas. It will be interesting to see today's 12z Euro ensembles and ensemble mean.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep....someone posted an old model....

Here was the latest:

[Extremeweatherguy]

The European model continues to be all over the place with 93L. Yesterday's 12z run showed a landfall near the TX/LA border...today's 00z run showed a landfall in central LA...and now today's 12z run looks to be aimed toward Mexico. There is definitely no real run-to-run consistency yet.

[HouTXmetro]

with Alex struggling to develop could the GFS be right after all? The other models are all over the place including the EURO. Honestly I expect all other models to start shifting west towards Mexico....just my uneducated opinion.

[Ikester]

So here's my thoughts....I don't doubt that there will be some kind of break down in the ridge by next week. I just don't think it will be nearly as deep as the gfs indicates. Models will continue the "windshield wiper" until it gets a grasp on how deep the trough will be. Personally, I think the Euro over corrected. I don't think the ridge will be solid enough to shove it due west into Mexico. I'd be more inclined to believe a bend to 270 degrees and a gradual shift to the WNW and eventual NW in the system...assuming it becomes "Alex."

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The European model continues to be all over the place with 93L. Yesterday's 12z run showed a landfall near the TX/LA border...today's 00z run showed a landfall in central LA...and now today's 12z run looks to be aimed toward Mexico. There is definitely no real run-to-run consistency yet.

And there wont be until something develops.

[ROCK]

EWG, nice to see your still kicking around....EURO has a weaker system, lower lat, misses weakness...


Just by looking whats out there right now the EURO might be on to something...I dont know...I hate these long drawn out developments...

[Ikester]

The European model continues to be all over the place with 93L. Yesterday's 12z run showed a landfall near the TX/LA border...today's 00z run showed a landfall in central LA...and now today's 12z run looks to be aimed toward Mexico. There is definitely no real run-to-run consistency yet.

And there wont be until something develops.

Couldn't have typed it better myself.

[Aquawind]

Still status quo for the models.. development but confusion..gimme LLC or cheesy poof.

[cycloneye]

The 18z BAM model suite.

WHXX01 KWBC 231929
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1929 UTC WED JUN 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100623 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 0600 100624 1800 100625 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 78.6W 16.7N 80.7W 17.1N 82.5W 17.2N 83.9W
BAMD 16.6N 78.6W 16.6N 80.0W 16.6N 81.4W 16.6N 82.8W
BAMM 16.6N 78.6W 16.6N 80.3W 16.8N 81.8W 16.9N 83.1W
LBAR 16.6N 78.6W 17.0N 80.6W 17.5N 82.9W 18.2N 85.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100625 1800 100626 1800 100627 1800 100628 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 85.3W 19.0N 87.8W 20.6N 90.2W 21.7N 92.7W
BAMD 16.8N 84.4W 17.2N 87.6W 17.6N 90.9W 17.7N 94.2W
BAMM 17.1N 84.4W 17.9N 87.2W 18.7N 90.0W 19.1N 93.0W
LBAR 19.1N 87.7W 21.0N 91.8W 23.1N 94.1W 25.1N 94.7W
SHIP 50KTS 66KTS 78KTS 88KTS
DSHP 50KTS 66KTS 35KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 76.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[brunota2003]

wow...one thing I will say is that I wish they had sent some form of recon into the system so we could have some data to put into the models.

[ROCK]

BAMMS following the EURO...

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF run has now aligned itself with the GFS as I expected. The trend is definitely more west with the models as large-scale ridging looks like it will build in from the Central plains SE towards the GOM at the end of the forecast period, at least that is what the global consensus is at the moment. The difference is that the ECMWF develops a stronger system that goes into Mexico while the GFS keeps the system into Mexico as a wave.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gonna be nuts if GFS goes 2-0 this season...