ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

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Stormcenter
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Re: Re:

#441 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:17 am

I don't think anyone is sounding the all clear right now. Though to be honest "right now" there isn't anything to be clear of but a tropical wave (93L).


CourierPR wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS rolling out, looks like 93L is getting buried in the Yucatan again with no development. Large ridge over the GOM and Southern US to the north...same thing the GFS has been showing for the past several runs over the past couple of days. I expect the ECMWF to come on board in the next few runs.

It's also showing a good amount of SW shear in the GOM (Northern and Western GOM) at 66 hours out which is not good for any significant development. A large anticyclone appears to develop in the SE GOM.

Great news.
The NHC discussion on Darby includes a mention of the developing system in the Caribbean and characterizes the GFS solution as an outlier. Way too early for anyone to be sounding an ALL CLEAR!
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Re: Re:

#442 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:17 am

Stormcenter wrote:Excellent news.....we don't need anything tropical anywhere in the GOM
right now (or ever)with the oil spill crisis going on.


Speak for yourself Stormcenter, with portions of east, central, and north Texas running a precip deficit and experiencing a summer with already above-normal temperatures ... we could use a nice tropical depression or storm with 3-5 inches of rain (over a few days of course!).

The Disorganized Mess Currently Known as 93L can stay that way and come to the Lone Star State.
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Re: Re:

#443 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:24 am

Okay I stand corrected some folks could use 93L's rains. :)

Portastorm wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Excellent news.....we don't need anything tropical anywhere in the GOM
right now (or ever)with the oil spill crisis going on.


Speak for yourself Stormcenter, with portions of east, central, and north Texas running a precip deficit and experiencing a summer with already above-normal temperatures ... we could use a nice tropical depression or storm with 3-5 inches of rain (over a few days of course!).

The Disorganized Mess Currently Known as 93L can stay that way and come to the Lone Star State.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#444 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:41 am

Some of the ensemble model members are pointing now toward the western FL panhandle. Latest GFS showing a strong trough beginning to dig down on Sunday with a cold front reaching central Florida by Tuesday next week. I think either it doesn't develop and heads to mexico or it does and then moves north and then NE into the NE GOM.

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#445 Postby ROCK » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:45 am

very rare for that trof to dig all the way to Central FL in late June......
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#446 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:48 am

I agree with ROCK.....I seriously don't see how any of those ensemble members are taking it towards Florida at all. The HWRF is the only exception as it is typically, the right outlier.

93L may have to be a very powerful storm I believe it make it a Florida threat...and I am certain that would be the something those guys wouldn't want to see.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#447 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:49 am

ROCK wrote:very rare for that trof to dig all the way to Central FL in late June......


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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#448 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:58 am

Possible, but I can't see that happening either. Is their any current obs we can look at to determine exactly how strong this trough is now and if it would have that type of muscle?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#449 Postby Ikester » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:00 pm

I agree. I think a trough is nothing more than wishful thinking. Then again, I've seen it snow in southeast Texas in April so I think anything is *possible* but not likely. I can think of several examples where the models looked like windshield wipers before settling on a stretch of coast. The last example was Ike.
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#450 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:02 pm

Perhaps the trough will dig down and stall out before washing out? Wouldn't that still leave a weakness, while being more likely?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#451 Postby Comanche » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:04 pm

Ikester wrote: the models looked like windshield wipers before settling on a stretch of coast.



:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#452 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:09 pm

12z Canadian has a weak low in central Louisiana...lot's of rain though

Image

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#453 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:22 pm

12z HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#454 Postby Comanche » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:22 pm

What time does the euro run start? i guess all eyes seem to be watching this one since it seems to be the most dramatic. (central satandard time)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#455 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:25 pm

Comanche wrote:What time does the euro run start? i guess all eyes seem to be watching this one since it seems to be the most dramatic. (central satandard time)


Should start rolling out around 1:30 CDT..finished around 1:58
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#456 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:26 pm

12z GFDL

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#457 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:36 pm

Looks like 60kt or so on that GFDL graphic.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#458 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:38 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

#459 Postby ROCK » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:11 pm

little more left swing to these runs.....the windshield analogy was perfect. :lol:

EURO in 20 minutes...the suspense is killing me!!!
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Re:

#460 Postby Rainband » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:16 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I agree with ROCK.....I seriously don't see how any of those ensemble members are taking it towards Florida at all. The HWRF is the only exception as it is typically, the right outlier.

93L may have to be a very powerful storm I believe it make it a Florida threat...and I am certain that would be the something those guys wouldn't want to see.
Nor would anyone in their right mind. :roll: I understand we are all weather geeks but this is bad timing for any storm in the GOM. Lets pray this thing either poofs or goes west.
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