CourierPR wrote:The NHC discussion on Darby includes a mention of the developing system in the Caribbean and characterizes the GFS solution as an outlier. Way too early for anyone to be sounding an ALL CLEAR!gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS rolling out, looks like 93L is getting buried in the Yucatan again with no development. Large ridge over the GOM and Southern US to the north...same thing the GFS has been showing for the past several runs over the past couple of days. I expect the ECMWF to come on board in the next few runs.
It's also showing a good amount of SW shear in the GOM (Northern and Western GOM) at 66 hours out which is not good for any significant development. A large anticyclone appears to develop in the SE GOM.
Great news.
ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
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Re: Re:
I don't think anyone is sounding the all clear right now. Though to be honest "right now" there isn't anything to be clear of but a tropical wave (93L).
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Re: Re:
Stormcenter wrote:Excellent news.....we don't need anything tropical anywhere in the GOM
right now (or ever)with the oil spill crisis going on.
Speak for yourself Stormcenter, with portions of east, central, and north Texas running a precip deficit and experiencing a summer with already above-normal temperatures ... we could use a nice tropical depression or storm with 3-5 inches of rain (over a few days of course!).
The Disorganized Mess Currently Known as 93L can stay that way and come to the Lone Star State.
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Re: Re:
Okay I stand corrected some folks could use 93L's rains. 

Portastorm wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Excellent news.....we don't need anything tropical anywhere in the GOM
right now (or ever)with the oil spill crisis going on.
Speak for yourself Stormcenter, with portions of east, central, and north Texas running a precip deficit and experiencing a summer with already above-normal temperatures ... we could use a nice tropical depression or storm with 3-5 inches of rain (over a few days of course!).
The Disorganized Mess Currently Known as 93L can stay that way and come to the Lone Star State.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
Some of the ensemble model members are pointing now toward the western FL panhandle. Latest GFS showing a strong trough beginning to dig down on Sunday with a cold front reaching central Florida by Tuesday next week. I think either it doesn't develop and heads to mexico or it does and then moves north and then NE into the NE GOM.


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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
very rare for that trof to dig all the way to Central FL in late June......
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I agree with ROCK.....I seriously don't see how any of those ensemble members are taking it towards Florida at all. The HWRF is the only exception as it is typically, the right outlier.
93L may have to be a very powerful storm I believe it make it a Florida threat...and I am certain that would be the something those guys wouldn't want to see.
93L may have to be a very powerful storm I believe it make it a Florida threat...and I am certain that would be the something those guys wouldn't want to see.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
ROCK wrote:very rare for that trof to dig all the way to Central FL in late June......

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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
Possible, but I can't see that happening either. Is their any current obs we can look at to determine exactly how strong this trough is now and if it would have that type of muscle?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
I agree. I think a trough is nothing more than wishful thinking. Then again, I've seen it snow in southeast Texas in April so I think anything is *possible* but not likely. I can think of several examples where the models looked like windshield wipers before settling on a stretch of coast. The last example was Ike.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
Ikester wrote: the models looked like windshield wipers before settling on a stretch of coast.



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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
12z Canadian has a weak low in central Louisiana...lot's of rain though




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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
What time does the euro run start? i guess all eyes seem to be watching this one since it seems to be the most dramatic. (central satandard time)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
Comanche wrote:What time does the euro run start? i guess all eyes seem to be watching this one since it seems to be the most dramatic. (central satandard time)
Should start rolling out around 1:30 CDT..finished around 1:58
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Michael
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
New version of the GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_120l.gif
This version is supposed to take over in July
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_120l.gif
This version is supposed to take over in July
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
little more left swing to these runs.....the windshield analogy was perfect.
EURO in 20 minutes...the suspense is killing me!!!

EURO in 20 minutes...the suspense is killing me!!!
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Re:
Nor would anyone in their right mind.Weatherfreak000 wrote:I agree with ROCK.....I seriously don't see how any of those ensemble members are taking it towards Florida at all. The HWRF is the only exception as it is typically, the right outlier.
93L may have to be a very powerful storm I believe it make it a Florida threat...and I am certain that would be the something those guys wouldn't want to see.

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