ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

I'm fairly certain you can see low level inflow into the blob below Haiti in this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The lazy circulation near Jamaica looks less and less well defined and near the end of the loop you can see clouds once again moving e/se where the circulation once was. I'm not sure I would call this better organized, just changing at the moment.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

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I would say this looks like a fairly vigorous typical early season mess. There has been no obvious organization to speak of. Nice convection recently over what I thought was a bit of a swirl around 17n/72w last night, but thats collapsing. It fails the persistence test so we will have to "wait and see". I'm glad at least something is out there to watch.

[ronjon]

The latest GFDL wants to develop low pressure near 17N-77W over the next 12 hours - due south of JAM. This also is the highest zone of 850 mb vorticity. If it's going to develop like the models say it will - this should be the area to focus on.

[KatDaddy]

Invest 93L looking more organized. From Joe Bastardi's morning post:

So strap in, here we go. The tropics are bubbling and the lid is about to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.

[Stormcenter]

I guess because there really isn't anything to talk about right now concerning 93L.

The TWC gave Dr. Knabb like 20 seconds for the tropical update. He mentioned the hurricane in the EPAC and nothing about 93.
A segment about a tree falling on a mini-van received the majority of the time. I miss John Hope and Steve Lyons

[Javlin]

Call me crazy but I remember about 4 runs ago the CMC coming up with some stupid solution with 2 systems coming out of this area and now I am wondering both are perkulating quite well this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

[HouTXmetro]

out to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.

I'm having a hard time believing that when there is no convection. All of the heavy convection is well East of that point. But we shall see.

[JPmia]

Me he dado cuenta que hay un buen número de hablantes de español en el foro que podría no ser capaz de escribir en Inglés asi que aquí hay un enlace al traductor de Google para traducir antes de publicarlos. No es perfecto, pero debe ayudarle a:

"I notice there are a good number of spanish speakers in the forum that might not be able to write in english so here is a link to the Google Translator for you to translate before you post. It's not perfect, but it should help you:"

http://www.google.com/language_tools?hl=es

[mf_dolphin]

Thanks for posting that JPmia.

[tolakram]

Is it yesterday? Convection around rotating MLC-like feature waning, and increasing closer to what might be the future center?

[wzrgirl1]

Is there any credence to the two system theory because there are two really nice areas of convection, or is that mass east of 93L related?

[jlauderdal]

Call me crazy but I remember about 4 runs ago the CMC coming up with some stupid solution with 2 systems coming out of this area and now I am wondering both are perkulating quite well this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

cmc had split the energy yesterday, seemed reasonable then and seems reasonable now, we really need something to develop at the surface to get a clue although the momentum is west west and more west

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

convection continues to fire

[fci]

Invest 93L looking more organized. From Joe Bastardi's morning post:

So strap in, here we go. The tropics are bubbling and the lid is about to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.

Ah...... nice to see a little hype.
The Atlantic Tropical Season has arrived when the hype machine starts getting cranked up!!

[bvigal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

convection continues to fire

It does look like clouds building over area of interest. Here's the change in 4hrs.

edit: That line through the picture is 75W

[Javlin]

Well it looks like the dominate area is at 17'N and 72.5'W some rotation going on there for sure but is it at the surface ??Not much in steering currents out there.

I like the unenhanced http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

[clfenwi]

Dr. Masters has posted his latest thoughts on 93L. Money line

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

[Plant grower]

Invest 93L looking more organized. From Joe Bastardi's morning post:

So strap in, here we go. The tropics are bubbling and the lid is about to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.

Ah...... nice to see a little hype.
The Atlantic Tropical Season has arrived when the hype machine starts getting cranked up!!

can you post the link so I can read it. Can not find at accu weather

[Stormcenter]

I guess that means there is a 80% chance we won't have a hurricane
in the GOM next week. I like those percentages.

Dr. Masters has posted his latest thoughts on 93L. Money line

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

[petit_bois]

I guess that means there is a 80% chance we won't have a hurricane
in the GOM next week. I like those percentages.

Dr. Masters has posted his latest thoughts on 93L. Money line

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

nope... there in a 80% chance that development won't happen in the next 48 hours....