ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[tailgater]

Wave axis or broad center looks to be very near Jamaica from the first vis pics this morning.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[Aquawind]

Alrighty then.. If they fly today it will be for the blob near Jamaica..doubtful but the blob is impressive this am. Other than that the obvious LL activity associated is out west again and still naked. I still like the LL area to take charge but, without QSCAT it's hard to see under the convection and ASCAT sucks.. Ho Hum.. The Swirl Watch continues..

[lonelymike]

The TWC gave Dr. Knabb like 20 seconds for the tropical update. He mentioned the hurricane in the EPAC and nothing about 93.
A segment about a tree falling on a mini-van received the majority of the time. I miss John Hope and Steve Lyons

[Aquawind]

Up to 30%

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM HAITI SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

Hmmm Without trying to read into the graphic so much it looks like it is directly over the Jamaica blob and they don't even include the western portion with obvious a northerly LL component.

[Aquawind]

The TWC gave Dr. Knabb like 20 seconds for the tropical update. He mentioned the hurricane in the EPAC and nothing about 93.
A segment about a tree falling on a mini-van received the majority of the time. I miss John Hope and Steve Lyons

Not a single word on 93L? Did he mention the ATL basin at all? 20 seconds or not that's wrong if so.

[tolakram]

The spin is going past Jamaica. Very interesting setup. I expected things to get going well west of where NHC says the disturbance is.



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[Blown Away]

Exactly Aquawind, the graphic does not include the center where all these models were initializing. Maybe some big changes coming.

[StarmanHDB]

Thanks to many of the people on this site, I'm learning a lot about a topic in which I've been interested for years, and I am still (and hopefully always will be) learning. With that out of the way....

....When I went to sleep last night, I thought I saw a center around 18N 72W with no convection anywhere near that point. This morning, I still see what I believe to be a center around 18N 72.5W with a sudden pop of convection just to the very near ESE of that center. I'm also seeing last night's convection splitting off into two distinct areas with the one to the west exploding.

Am I observing what I am supposed to be observing and what exactly is going on with this wave? Looking forward to reading your responses.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

All I can say looking at 93L this morning is what a disorganized mess! I can't see development happening at least for the next 48 hours and possibly even beyond that. The area is also getting increasingly close to the islands which will also help prohibit development. The best chance it will have is in the WCAR in about 2-3 days from now and again I think only a 20% maybe 30% chance there.

As for the ECMWF showing the monster in the GOM, I would put zero stock in that solution --- see models thread for my post on what I am seeing with the models.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[srainhoutx]

Posted this earlier in the model thread...

HPC thoughts this morning...

MEANWHILE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEFINE A RATHER WIDE SOLN
ENVELOPE WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE
DEEPEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE GULF. ASIDE FROM THE FAST
CANADIAN MOST GUIDANCE BECOMES SLOWER THAN YDAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATED TRACK... SO CONTINUITY IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SLOWER BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST.

[Blown Away]

Hurakan, that graphic is boring you have set the bar high and need to keep up your creative wit! The Nintendo DS was very funny and the 8 ball is always a goto graphic! Keep up the good work!

[Aquawind]

Oh great..slower.. Just you all wait. When/if this pops and is a slow mover over all the TCHP we are talking scary stuff..just like some of the models suggest only worse. What actually happens on strength is to be seen of course but, when organized I expect the intensity in the models to go crazy..

[StarmanHDB]

The TWC gave Dr. Knabb like 20 seconds for the tropical update. He mentioned the hurricane in the EPAC and nothing about 93.
A segment about a tree falling on a mini-van received the majority of the time. I miss John Hope and Steve Lyons

Not a single word on 93L? Did he mention the ATL basin at all? 20 seconds or not that's wrong if so.

He didn't mention a single word about 93L, nor did he mention anything about the Atlantic Basin. I think it's the ever conservative former NHC employee in him. Yes, I'm very glad that he's choosing to not irresponsibly fan the 2010 hyper-hype (*ahem*Joe Bastardi), but he should have at least mentioned something to the extent that "we are monitoring a system in the Atlantic and will keep you updated".

As far as the mini-van, I hope they had insurance!

[ronjon]

What a mess this morning - how's that for a technical assessment? From this mornings VIS SAT, I see a weak LLC near 15.5N-75.3W and yesterdays MLC near 16.3N-73.5W. It appears that the MLC is decaying. At the same time, the wave east of the 93L is mving toward the western convective blob. All in all, this is the most disorganized the system has looked in two days. I can't see RECON flying today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[djones65]

When I look at hi resolution visible loops I can see what appears to be a well defined, but broad surface rotation south southwest of Jamaica near 16.5N and 78W. If you look carefully I believe you will see the same with a broad surface circulation based on the low level wind flow. There is only isolated and disorganized convection near this area. I can only see easterly winds near the surface blowing straight through the concentrated convection south of Hispaniola without any curvature noted. I believe that if a surface circulation/cyclone is to develop it almost certainly has to be well west of the deep convection south of Hispaniola. I also note the strong convection there is also warming rapidly. If it were to develop it would probably be southwest of Jamaica in my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

Available everywhere

[tailgater]

When I look at hi resolution visible loops I can see what appears to be a well defined, but broad surface rotation south southwest of Jamaica near 16.5N and 78W. If you look carefully I believe you will see the same with a broad surface circulation based on the low level wind flow. There is only isolated and disorganized convection near this area. I can only see easterly winds near the surface blowing straight through the concentrated convection south of Hispaniola without any curvature noted. I believe that if a surface circulation/cyclone is to develop it almost certainly has to be well west of the deep convection south of Hispaniola. I also note the strong convection there is also warming rapidly. If it were to develop it would probably be southwest of Jamaica in my opinion.

yep that 's about what I see also not well defined though a little elongated SW-NE. Should staring firing up this morning and we will wait some more to see if there is any deeping.

[Blown Away]

Nice Hurakan coming through under pressure!
Go US Today In WC!!
Cloud tops warming and very little convection associated w/ the circulation center to the SW.