ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Sabanic]

Going to be lotsa sore eyes around here for the next week or so . . . .

[Ivanhater]

[Dean4Storms]

Just hope it keeps going to the right.

What?? Are you out of your mind? Any further to the right and all of the eastern Gulf Coast is going to be bathed in oil.

It needs to head toward MEXICO!!!

That's a very very non-selfish wish... I understand you don't want oil in the coast but I'm also sure that Mexican people don't want to deal with a hurricane either, it would be better if it doesn't develop at all or if it takes a fish track wich seems unlikely.

Of course I would rather it just go poof and gone, but if it tracks toward the Gulf the best case would be for it to track over the Yucatan losing some organization then head for Mexico. This was what I meant with what I was saying. Any track into the central Gulf is going to be a much bigger disaster than a weakened storm headed for Mexico.

[Bluefrog]

not funny ivan

[HouTXmetro]

IF this develops it's apparent that the oil stricken region will be affected.

[ROCK]

these models will change...we are still almost a week away....

Lets see what the EURO does tonight...maybe it comes in line with the rest...

[Ivanhater]

BTW I would suggest people use the upgraded version of the GFS for tonights run. It is a much more detailed version, even past 192 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

[Fego]

I found this page very interesting because shows an outlook valid from the 25 to the 29.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

VALID 12Z FRI JUN 25 2010 - 12Z TUE JUN 29 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

ONCE AGAIN...RELIED ON THE LATEST ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE
PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS
MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR DAYS NOW...AND CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE MODELS ARE BETTER
CLUSTERED TODAY...CLOSE TO THE ECENS MEAN...FOR THE FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH BOTH THE GEFS MEAN AND
CMCE MEAN WELL CORRELATED. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WAS SENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST A COUPLE RUNS AGO...NOW CLOSER TO THE MEAN AND TRACK
COORDINATED WITH TPC YESTERDAY. THE POLAR FRONT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SHARP FOR LATE JUNE...WITH AN ENORMOUS THERMAL CONTRAST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A STRONG PUSH OF MARITIME POLAR AIR
IS SLATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7...WITH AREAS WEST
OF THE CASCADES REALLY FEELING THE COOLING EFFECT.

[ROCK]

IF this develops it's apparent that the oil stricken region will be affected.

really depends on the SV and if digs enough to weaken the ridge which most models are seeing....does it dig enough before the high builds back in? does 93L miss the door? all sort of scenerios left to be played out.

[Weatherfreak000]

these models will change...we are still almost a week away....

Lets see what the EURO does tonight...maybe it comes in line with the rest...

Change as in where? Where do you suggest 93L will go?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If it develops farther East then chances are it will be farther east in the GOM. We'll see what the EURO shows.

[Rockin4NOLA]

I'm still kind of confused as to what factors might influence 93L west or east (or neither, as the case might be)..sorry to have to ask these questions but I'm less than a novice when it comes to reading models etc...I'm just hoping and praying that track towards the middle of the GOM doesn't happen....

I do want to say that I really appreciate everyone's input on these storms. You guys make alot more sense to me than my local weathermen

[ROCK]

these models will change...we are still almost a week away....

Lets see what the EURO does tonight...maybe it comes in line with the rest...

Change as in where? Where do you suggest 93L will go?

it could go almost anywhere without a true center to track...throwing darts right now. If the LLC is closer to that MLC then all of these will change.....are you saying they won't?

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs 12h

[Wx_Warrior]

24h

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS Link....Changes are supposed to be made to the GFS in July to improve it from what i've heard. Here's the link to the NEW GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... el_l.shtml

[Wx_Warrior]

36h

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The New version of the GFS is farther south than the operational one.

[Wx_Warrior]

Big time

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Post them both if you can..