ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[HouTXmetro]

thanks

[Ivanhater]

One hell of a trough on the 18Z GFS

[HouTXmetro]

Is that even plausible? such a trough in June?

[wxman57]

Looks like the MLC just south of Haiti is losing its convection. Convection is increasing near the lower-level vorticity center near 15.5N/75W, the feature identified on the 18Z model initialization. No evidence of any LLC, though. Have to wait another 48 hours, at least.

I notice that the EC, GFS and Canadian all indicate the ridge over the central Gulf coast weakening significantly by the weekend. EC and CMC develop a moderate trof across the central and NW Gulf then. Such a feature could turn this system north and eventually even NNE. Question is - where is it when it turns northward? Farther west and the TX coast is threatened. Farther east and it could hit the mid Gulf coast (SE LA to MS). Of course, this assumes something does develop.

[brunota2003]

*IF* the convection increases with the dmax here in a few hours, won't that increase the rotation, which would create positive feedback into the system and then continue to come together?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the MLC just south of Haiti is losing its convection. Convection is increasing near the lower-level vorticity center near 15.5N/75W, the feature identified on the 18Z model initialization. No evidence of any LLC, though. Have to wait another 48 hours, at least.

I notice that the EC, GFS and Canadian all indicate the ridge over the central Gulf coast weakening significantly by the weekend. EC and CMC develop a moderate trof across the central and NW Gulf then. Such a feature could turn this system north and eventually even NNE. Question is - where is it when it turns northward? Farther west and the TX coast is threatened. Farther east and it could hit the mid Gulf coast (SE LA to MS). Of course, this assumes something does develop.

Sounds reasonable. The 18z GFS does have strong shear in the western and northern gulf though

[KWT]

Is that even plausible? such a trough in June?

Its an extreme solution thats for sure, I'd be surprised, esp given the GFS has a bad habit of digging troughs way down south in the longer ranges.

[lonelymike]

Anyone got one of those cool tropical cyclone track maps from like 50 B.C through the present day of June Cyclone tracks?


BTW Ivan keep doing that hurricane dance. Need to send this Rocks way

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps turns NE at the end of the run but is awfully fast and sheared

[clfenwi]

Alt version???? what do you mean?

This runs right along with the other version. Seems like it is calibrated a little differently, but actually keeps 93l on this run with the other models

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

My understanding is that what's currently running as the parallel GFS is the upgrade that will become operational in July. Looking at the 192h seems to confirm that.

[Ivanhater]

Alt version???? what do you mean?

This runs right along with the other version. Seems like it is calibrated a little differently, but actually keeps 93l on this run with the other models

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... arib.shtml

My understanding is that what's currently running as the parallel GFS is the upgrade that will become operational in July. Looking at the 192h seems to confirm that.

Seems like it, much more detailed throughout the period.

[clfenwi]

Anyone got one of those cool tropical cyclone track maps from like 50 B.C through the present day of June Cyclone tracks?


BTW Ivan keep doing that hurricane dance. Need to send this Rocks way

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[KWT]

That shows the two different camps quite nicely, the camp that takes this system up through the Yucatan channel and the models that take it over the Yucatan and into the Gulf (which has gained more support recently)

[wxman57]

18Z GFS 5 day point is near 27N/91W moving just east of due north. Basically, SE LA. What are the odds of it being right before a storm even forms, though?

[Ivanhater]

HWRF STRONGER



GFDL CAT 2 IN Gulf

HOUR:126.0 LONG: -90.79 LAT: 27.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.15

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z GFS 5 day point is near 27N/91W moving just east of due north. Basically, SE LA. What are the odds of it being right before a storm even forms, though?

Slim.

[Ivanhater]

Ouch..







HWRF

[vbhoutex]

GFDL CAT 2 IN Gulf

HOUR:126.0 LONG: -90.79 LAT: 27.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.37 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 86.15

I do hope this does not come to pass!! That would be a HORRIBLE position for it to be in.

[lonelymike]

Sounds like the trough may be overdone eh?

[Comanche]

If that verifies, you will displace many people for quite awhile as wind driven oil will get far inland, coating everything with toxic crap. Major economic hit not to mention loss of energy/chemical demand. Horrible thought.