ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[lrak]

Ok so the SW side not the big blob to the North is where the action might start.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok so the SW side not the big blob to the North is where the action might start.

right if it can maintain that is..

[Ivanhater]

Stronger thunderstorms today, that should help lower some pressure

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

This current convective burst maybe able to establish some sort of MLC, it probably won't get the job done in the first asking, it has got time on its side and as it gets further west I think things will be good enough further develop. Like Aric said look for something to possibly develop once west of 75W.

I still think this has a pretty solid chance of being upgraded down the line.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The Northern system could be the real threat. It could travel more NW, gaining some latitude early and taking a path more like yesterday's Euro run. That would not be good for the oil spill.

I believe this will be TD by 6:00am tomorrow. Those waters are just far too warm and this could rapidly get organized if the spin can establish itself just a little during the day today.

Disclosure...yada yada...I'm certainly not a pro nor represent the site...yada yada...follow your local NWS & NOAA guidance...yada yada

[Frank2]

A possible MLC is seen at 16.5N 70.5W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

per the models, if something should form it seems destined for the Yucatan at least in the short term, though significant shear is to the NW ATTM...

[jlauderdal]

wait till it passes 75 west..

No need, 93L is no longer attached to the ITCZ, as well as it's location as opposed to South America.


I must give you your props Aric, I learned a good lesson from you yesterday. The proximity to South America is a huge factor this early in the season. The latest satellite imagery however suggest in my opinion that 93L is currently looking better than it ever has however. I believe 93L has a decent chance of developing before 75W.

Proximity to SA is a huge factor at anytime on the season. This system has a much better chance west of 75W. I stand by my prediction yesterday, this has Texas in its sights regardless of strength.

[Dean4Storms]

A possible MLC is seen at 16.5N 70.5W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

per the models, if something should form it seems destined for the Yucatan at least in the short term, though significant shear is to the NW ATTM...

I think I see a lower level rotation near 15.8N 71.2W

[KWT]

A possible MLC is seen at 16.5N 70.5W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

per the models, if something should form it seems destined for the Yucatan at least in the short term, though significant shear is to the NW ATTM...

Yeah it sure does look like that, it'd make sense as well given the convection that has been present in that area for the last 9-12hrs now.

[cycloneye]

High Seas Forecast

[Florida1118]

Possible tropical cyclone....

[lrak]

SURF

[I-wall]

When is the upper level anti-cyclone supposed to develop over 93L?

[Aric Dunn]

When is the upper level anti-cyclone supposed to develop over 93L?

already has

[cycloneye]

When is the upper level anti-cyclone supposed to develop over 93L?

There is is.

[curtadams]

Definitely an MLC looking at the rgb loop. It's very high, though; it seems to affect high clouds more than low clouds. Even an MLC at the low cloud level often doesn't go to the surface, so this is probably a long way from having an LLC.

[coreyl]

I didn't expect this wave to be some big bad storm at this point but I am not impressed by this system so far. Am I missing something?

[Ivanhater]

Interesting tidbit from Tallahassee NWS if we have a stronger system

"THEN BOTH THE GFS AND 12Z EURO SHOWS THE RIDGING
BREAKING DOWN AS A TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY."

[KWT]

That upper high looks a little too the west of where you'd it to be for the eastern region of convection, just confirms that its probably once again the jet that is causing that convective blow up. If that forcing weakens then I'd imagine the convection may end up decaying again, esp if it can't develop a strong enough circulation in the time.