ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

This system is big, I hope it goes poof.

[Florida1118]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

This system is big, I hope it goes poof.

Dont we all?

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

This system is big, I hope it goes poof.

Dont we all?

I'd hope so, no reason to question it.

[BigB0882]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

[Florida1118]

HPC shows LLC forming by Thursday.

[Time_Zone]

Not too impressed with this system as of right now. No defined LLC....No real convection. I'd say it's gonna take a few days to develop if it even develops at all...

[Aquawind]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

While the warm waters are a concern.. Speed, Dry air from inland and shear are big players when this close to the Northern Coast.. Previous mets have mentioned dry air intrusion from inland oftens weakens the systems in the GOM.. not always but, warm water is only one part of a very complex system and I doubt the warm water will override the atmospheric conditions..

[jasons2k]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

There are a number of factors that can contribute to weakening but in many cases along the Gulf Coast, weakening is due to dry air intrusion rather than cool water temps.

[ROCK]

Could we see a code red at the 2 AM updated?

not with warming cloud tops we wont...convection waning...

[RL3AO]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

From my understanding, while the waters in the Northern GOM are warm, storms approaching the central gulf coast are usually moving north which means they've started to be impacted by the mid-latitude westerlies and also, when you have a storm taking a Katrina like path, its pulling in dry air from its east side (Florida) and its north side, which starts to weaken it really quickly.

If you contrast that with storms that impact Texas, they are usually heading west/wnw at landfall so they are still being steered by the tropical winds and also the storm doesn't pull in as much dry air leading up to landfall. Thats why its common to see storms intensify all the way to landfall around Texas.

[HurricaneBelle]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

I would think the warmer waters might only help the storm maintain its intensity, as the storms that approach the northern gulf coast tend to weaken as they entrain dry air from having more and more of their circulation over land.

[Florida1118]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

From my understanding, while the waters in the Northern GOM are warm, storms approaching the central gulf coast are usually moving north which means they've started to be impacted by the mid-latitude westerlies and also, when you have a storm taking a Katrina like path, its pulling in dry air from its east side (Florida) and its north side, which starts to weaken it really quickly.

If you contrast that with storms that impact Texas, they are usually heading west/wnw at landfall so they are still being steered by the tropical winds and also the storm doesn't pull in as much dry air leading up to landfall. Thats why its common to see storms intensify all the way to landfall around Texas.

Storms that impact Florida tend to intensify until the coast also. Wilma for example.

[ROCK]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

There are a number of factors that can contribute to weakening but in many cases along the Gulf Coast, weakening is due to dry air intrusion rather than cool water temps.

SO true Jason.....Rita sucked in some dry air and weakened dramatically...doesnt take much..93L doesnt have a problem with moisture...needs to tap into the surface to get going...until then we will see these flare ups and downs....

[I-wall]

I see some spin around 69W 15N.

[ROCK]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

From my understanding, while the waters in the Northern GOM are warm, storms approaching the central gulf coast are usually moving north which means they've started to be impacted by the mid-latitude westerlies and also, when you have a storm taking a Katrina like path, its pulling in dry air from its east side (Florida) and its north side, which starts to weaken it really quickly.

If you contrast that with storms that impact Texas, they are usually heading west/wnw at landfall so they are still being steered by the tropical winds and also the storm doesn't pull in as much dry air leading up to landfall. Thats why its common to see storms intensify all the way to landfall around Texas.

Storms that impact Florida tend to intensify until the coast also. Wilma for example.

was Wilma intensifying as it approached FL? I seem to recall it peaked south the Yucatan and shot off NE into FL as a cat 2....

[lrak]

I see some spin around 69W 15N.

It appears that a lower area of pressure is pulling the storms to about 14n 71w.

[ROCK]

I see some spin around 69W 15N.

mid-level.....you will know when its at the surface.

[Florida1118]

I may be wrong but I seem to remember Wilma intensify to cat. 3 as it neared our coast... It might have intensified further out though. I will go check.

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a question about the super warm waters along the central GOM coast. In the past I can recall hurricanes weakening as they neared the shore, Katrina and Gustav come to mind as recent examples. Are these high water temps signs that hurricanes may not experience the same weakening if one should come ashore in the central GOM? Or, was the weakening of Katrina and Gustav due to more than just water temps in the past? I'm just worried that with these high temps, a hurricane approaching the coast may ramp up in intensity instead of the other way like we have had recently.

From my understanding, while the waters in the Northern GOM are warm, storms approaching the central gulf coast are usually moving north which means they've started to be impacted by the mid-latitude westerlies and also, when you have a storm taking a Katrina like path, its pulling in dry air from its east side (Florida) and its north side, which starts to weaken it really quickly.

If you contrast that with storms that impact Texas, they are usually heading west/wnw at landfall so they are still being steered by the tropical winds and also the storm doesn't pull in as much dry air leading up to landfall. Thats why its common to see storms intensify all the way to landfall around Texas.

Storms that impact Florida tend to intensify until the coast also. Wilma for example.[/quote

Wilma was enhanced by the cold front that swept her Northeast across the state. Another more appropriate example would be Hurricane Andrew that intensified steadily over the warm Gulf Stream waters.

[ROCK]

Just by looking at the IR...if I had to guess I would put a non-existant center at 71W 13.5N..JMO though