ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

More of the 8pm computer models seem to be moving the system closer to Florida if it develops.

they were left this am and right this evening. Wait for the LLC and then the models should show more consistency....

It looks like one is trying to form but it might be mid.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - I see the twist!

[Aquawind]

Could we see a code red at the 2 AM updated?

I have my doubts..no data suggests such..many would argue they are already overstating it at 50% at this point. There is nothing there yet..but everyone expects conditions to improve even more as it moves into the Western Carib. Now if they find a defined LLC then it goes up..imo.

[HURAKAN]

Could we see a code red at the 2 AM updated?

I have my doubts..no data suggests such..many would argue they are already overstating it at 50% at this point. There is nothing there yet..but everyone expects conditions to improve even more as it moves into the Western Carib. Now if they find a defined LLC then it goes up..imo.

IMO it will go up by 8 am if convection increases and we see some evidence of at least a stronger MLC

[RL3AO]

Its certainly organizing. Think we could have TD 1 in 48 to 72 hours.

[Aquawind]

Agreed the AM visable could do it..

[Ptarmigan]

I think we could see a TD soon.

[ozonepete]

Could we see a code red at the 2 AM updated?

I have my doubts..no data suggests such..many would argue they are already overstating it at 50% at this point. There is nothing there yet..but everyone expects conditions to improve even more as it moves into the Western Carib. Now if they find a defined LLC then it goes up..imo.

No way code red at 2AM. Even though there's a spin now, there's no sure way of telling how much of it is at the surface. In addition, it's not doing a nocturnal convective flare-up at all so far. This has a couple of days to go before environmental conditions get really conducive for development.

[Florida1118]

:uarrow: Agreed the AM visable could do it..

I dont know. Invest 92 looked like it but nevergot it. Then again, It was not in a good place...

[HURAKAN]

Interesting ship report. I wonder how accurate it's or if it's just a local effect

[cycloneye]

The latest image at 2:15 AM UTC or 10:15 PM EDT.You can see some banding features starting to appear.

[RL3AO]

Interesting ship report. I wonder how accurate it's or if it's just a local effect

Which one? The 1012 mb one just south of the "I"? Thats just where the trough is from the tropical wave.

[HURAKAN]

Which one? The 1012 mb one just south of the "I"? Thats just where the trough is from the tropical wave.

Ok, that might explain it!

[Aquawind]

We have to keep in mind the color code is for within 48 hours of that forecast sooo.. it's not falling apart and clearly getting closer to better conditions. So they could make a call of more confidence if they were already at 50%.. We will find out how this % stuff works.. clearly it doesn't seem like it's going to pop overnight..

[clfenwi]

I concur in expecting that the probability will remain unchanged at 2 AM.

It does seem to be the case, in the Atlantic at least, that the NHC is trying to extend its lead time for its "Code Red"/High Probability of formation forecasts so more of the 48 hour forecast period is covered (vice only going Code Red when it's a virtual slam dunk and a TD forms within 12 hours).

Given that a circulation has only recently shown a hint of being apparent, along with the lack of organization convection, I would say it's reasonable to expect a tropical depression being classified no earlier than Wednesday (assuming that there is development, of course).

[mvtrucking]

Este sistema 93L si llegara a ser una depresion tropical para el informe de las 2:00pm de manana. No hay manera que este sistema corra la misma suerte que el 92L. Cual es su impresion de tener 2 sistemas en el pacifico y dos areas en desarrollo en pleno mes de junio??? las antillas mayores sufriran el azote de un sistema, sea tormenta o nivel huracan. en especial Cuba y Puerto Rico.... veo un comienzo de temporada muy irregular y preocupante!!

I believe you are saying that 93L should become a TD by 2 pm tomorrow and not suffer the same fate as 92L did? Also what bearing the 2 Pacific storms will have on 93L if any? Greater Antilles, Cuba & Puerto Rico should bear the brunt of this storm?

[ozonepete]

Not sure land breezes would be important here, though. They would be too local in reach.

I'm talking about inflow from the south which would feed the storm. It's essentially limited by continental dry air of SA. Air currents from a large land mass has less moisture and will lead to greater subsidence.

Sorry, Ronjon, I misunderstood you. Yeah there's definitely dry air coming off the north SA coast. What's especially key is that as the air comes down those high mountains it dries out due to warming from compression on descent. But that air is also moistened quite a bit again as it moves in towards the circulation center and passes over very high SSTs. So some storms come through that region and weaken due to it and some intensify despite it. Guess we'll just have to watch. But I do see your point and it's a good one.

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, 50% is a bit to high, at least for now. Until the convection gets more organized around some sort of center circulation, I believe this has about a 30% of forming within 2 days.

[littlevince]

MIMIC-TPW (12z - 01z)

[Aquawind]

Hmmmm Next invest near 60W..