GFS Meltdown! Honks Triple Play in 36 hours!!!!!

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Scott_inVA
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GFS Meltdown! Honks Triple Play in 36 hours!!!!!

#1 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Aug 11, 2003 5:56 pm

Wonder why the GFS still gives me the willies? click here:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs//avn/2003081112//950vort6.png
Let's see...Mississippi gets hit,
LA gets hit with another.
And a wave approaches FL.
All this Wednesday.

ummm... OK :roll:


18Z hurr models/12Z GFS online http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

The overall trend here is two words:
South
Weaker

We'll see

Scott
Last edited by Scott_inVA on Mon Aug 11, 2003 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 11, 2003 6:27 pm

Even more scary, that's only 36 hours out. :roll:

What is it with the 18z GFS runs that scream ... "Maintenance check?"

SF
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#3 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Aug 11, 2003 6:34 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Even more scary, that's only 36 hours out. :roll:

What is it with the 18z GFS runs that scream ... "Maintenance check?"

SF


Even more worrisome...this panel is from the "reliable" 12Z. OMG!
Scott
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 11, 2003 6:41 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Even more scary, that's only 36 hours out. :roll:

What is it with the 18z GFS runs that scream ... "Maintenance check?"

SF


Even more worrisome...this panel is from the "reliable" 12Z. OMG!
Scott


That's right, it's from the PSU site and they only update twice a day.
:17:
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JetMaxx

#5 Postby JetMaxx » Mon Aug 11, 2003 7:01 pm

OMG...someone give that model some prozac ASAP! :D
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#6 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 11, 2003 7:05 pm

I think a bullet to the processor would be much kinder LOL
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#7 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 11, 2003 7:20 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Scott_inVA wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Even more scary, that's only 36 hours out. :roll:

What is it with the 18z GFS runs that scream ... "Maintenance check?"

SF


Even more worrisome...this panel is from the "reliable" 12Z. OMG!
Scott


That's right, it's from the PSU site and they only update twice a day.
:17:
Two systems that close together in the GOM..I will believe it when and if it happens!! :roll: :roll:
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#8 Postby wx247 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:11 pm

That is crazy. :roll: Yeesh! How about a model reality check... hurry! Please.
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#9 Postby weatherlover427 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:58 pm

Somkeone needs to change the motherboard in the GFS because that ain't gonna happen. We all know that two systems so close together would inflict shear upon one another. Or at least I think so... :roll:
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GFS

#10 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:43 pm

I think you guys need to get out of "tropical mode" for a second. Take a look at the GFS from 00hr to 36hr and you'll see that it is, in fact, tracking several MCSs southward through Texas then out into the Gulf around the back side of that upper low then tracking them northeastward toward Louisiana on the "front" side of the upper low. They're not tropical systems, just vorticity maxima rotating counter-clockwise around the upper low. :wink:

And if you want the <b>best</b> GFS site out there, try NCEP's. They update the GFS out to 384hrs every 6hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml
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Re: GFS

#11 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think you guys need to get out of "tropical mode" for a second. Take a look at the GFS from 00hr to 36hr and you'll see that it is, in fact, tracking several MCSs southward through Texas then out into the Gulf around the back side of that upper low then tracking them northeastward toward Louisiana on the "front" side of the upper low. They're not tropical systems, just vorticity maxima rotating counter-clockwise around the upper low. :wink:

And if you want the <b>best</b> GFS site out there, try NCEP's. They update the GFS out to 384hrs every 6hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml


I know. Just found the GFS presentation um... entertaining given its' recent performance :roll:

I rely heavily on NCEP for the GFS. One item I noted was a lack of a jet streak (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_250_036m.gif) and assumed (???) the vorts were due in part to 50 KNT winds on the front of the trof. But you are correct...every vort or MCS does not a TC make :wink:

Scott
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Re: GFS

#12 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:24 am

Scott_inVA wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think you guys need to get out of "tropical mode" for a second. Take a look at the GFS from 00hr to 36hr and you'll see that it is, in fact, tracking several MCSs southward through Texas then out into the Gulf around the back side of that upper low then tracking them northeastward toward Louisiana on the "front" side of the upper low. They're not tropical systems, just vorticity maxima rotating counter-clockwise around the upper low. :wink:

And if you want the <b>best</b> GFS site out there, try NCEP's. They update the GFS out to 384hrs every 6hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml


I know. Just found the GFS presentation um... entertaining given its' recent performance :roll:

I rely heavily on NCEP for the GFS. One item I noted was a lack of a jet streak (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_250_036m.gif) and assumed (???) the vorts were due in part to 50 KNT winds on the front of the trof. But you are correct...every vort or MCS does not a TC make :wink:

Scott


As I rely heavily on NCEP's ETA/GFS website (linked on my website) for input ... I was having a little fun at the expense of the GFS.

SF
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