ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Since its slow Ill post it here as well. That is our little friend in the Gulf on the 00z GFS

[Fego]

!BAM! 92L hit a wall. See the sw side, it look like flat.
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[Aric Dunn]

IT has easily been a TD for the last 24 hours.. oh well no big deal I guess.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

The recent burst is clearly due to the highly divergent synoptics at the moment ..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8dvg.GIF

[pepeavilenho]

Let's wait until visible image

[Weatherfreak000]

That is an unbelievably tenacious circulation and it doesn't seem to ever wanna quit. I'd love to see some pro mets discuss the possibility of it making it past the shear zone to the north of the puerto rico and the islands.

[pepeavilenho]

Am I crazy seeing Tropical Depression here?



I don't think so...

[Cryomaniac]

Am I crazy seeing Tropical Depression here?



I don't think so...

Not crazy, but I doubt the NHC will agree with you.

[xironman]

Am I crazy seeing Tropical Depression here?



I don't think so...

That WV loop show nicely how the trough to the NW of 92L is slowly retrograding just a bit slower than 92L is moving west. In 48 hrs the jet streak is all the way up to PR.

[NONAME]

T-numbers are up to 1.5 for the first time with 92L.

16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L

[KWT]

The thing with 92L is can it hold this convection this time into the afternoon, if it can then the NHC are going to have a very tough call on what to do with it.

Also this does raise the odds of it surviving past the jet streak...man this one is making a fool of us most of us!

[NONAME]

First visible those are some high cloud tops.

[Gustywind]

[OURAGAN]

it's not a surprise to me, 92L is healthy today

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Convection is improving...

[Gustywind]

Watching the Pacific and central Atlantic
Guy Walton, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jun. 16, 2010 5:39 am ET
The tropics continue to be void of any named tropical systems around the globe.

There are two slowly organizing areas of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Pacific that are being monitored: one is located 400 miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, and the other is about 200 miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Both of these systems could become tropical depressions over the next few days. The low pressure in the central Atlantic is facing some challenges and the chances for any further development are low. It is currently located around 800 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west-northwest to northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The thunderstorms west of the low have increased overnight. The system will experience increasing wind shear aloft (a more hostile environment) as it moves nearer to the Windward Islands.

[KWT]

The system looks real good this morning but it really does need to hold this convection for a while yet, if it does the NHC may well be forced to play its hand...the shear is pretty horrid to the north but is just about lifting out quickly enough to keep 92L in decent conditions aloft.

Its gotta be raised to code orange at least though based on what its doing right now.

[HURAKAN]

Remember Nana in 2007? I was classified knowing it was going to be killed almost instantly. There's precedent.

[HURAKAN]

Visible