ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[I-wall]

Latest (for those of you who are sleeping right now):

Appears to be a TD or minimal TS, in my opinion.

[Brent]

It does look really good and I can't believe how small it is. It was only a day or two ago it was too big to fit on the floater.

[I-wall]

What do you guys make of this? Last image before I go to sleep...

[Time_Zone]

Looks like a disorganized TD to me.

Nothing too impressive lol.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks like a disorganized TD to me.

Nothing too impressive lol.

You could get a degree in obvious. or maybe even a minor in wasting forum space.


But seriously, it isn't the organization we are interested in...it's the location and time that makes this system so important, and such an anomaly. Nobody expected 92L to ever honestly get too organized, I can assure you of that.

That being said, I am slightly encouraged tonight. I hope the convection can wrap around some more over night and perhaps things will be looking even better then.


Edit: Enjoy the phantom eye feature as it lasts....an ominous sign!

[Time_Zone]

Looks like a disorganized TD to me.

Nothing too impressive lol.

You could get a degree in obvious. or maybe even a minor in wasting forum space.


But seriously, it isn't the organization we are interested in...it's the location and time that makes this system so important, and such an anomaly. Nobody expected 92L to ever honestly get too organized, I can assure you of that.

That being said, I am slightly encouraged tonight. I hope the convection can wrap around some more over night and perhaps things will be looking even better then.

I'm sorry I offended you.

anyways, It seems like it's trying to wrap up.....I wonder if the NHC declares it TD1 at 5am? I'd be surprised if they did but you never know...it's running out of time though.

[AdamFirst]

Who needs to sleep...there's a marginal tropical disturbance in the east atlantic that needs watching

This is it's last chance in my totally untrained and unprofessional opinion...circulation has remained strong but nothing has been able to wrap around. Even if they do upgrade this thing to TD1, its going to have very little time to grow into Alex before it runs into shear and dry air (unless those forecasts have changed and I'm not aware of it).

Just one more day...another 24 hours for 92L

[KWT]

92L hasn't done badly overnight, convection still flaring up but if you look at the loops you can see the shear is really rather close now...so its not got long.

I'd guess if this was in the Gulf of Mexico though this would probably have been upgraded but its position means its always going to be unlikely, since they have to be nearly TS for them to upgrade east of 50W usually...

[alan1961]

Yes kwt..the time is rapidly approaching for 92L
to fight the shear barrier ahead, as you say convection
as increased a little over the centre of circulation so lets
see if its up for the shear fight...

[xironman]

Definitely goes into the nice try with that blow up of convection in the first visible.

[KWT]

It looks pretty good, but I'm not sure the NHC will decide to upgrade it given its rapidly heading towards that jet core. In another situation though I'd be confident it would be upgraded, esp if it was in the Gulf/Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. This from the San Juan Discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE JUN 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT CENTERED NEAR 19 NORTH 55 WEST AND EXTENDING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
AND PULL NORTH WEDNESDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR 12 NORTH AND 43 WEST IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO AND ROTATION IS STILL
REMARKABLE FOR A SYSTEM THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...NEVERTHELESS THE
MODELS HOLD NO MORE HOPE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE NOW THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY AND SO EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO
PASS AS AN OPEN WAVE. INCREASING SHEAR TO THE LOWS NORTHWEST
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. THE LOW MAY ALSO BE INGESTING SOME DRY AIR
ON ITS WESTERN SIDE SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED SAHARAN
DUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE LOW
AND KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS DRY SLOT
PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE OPEN
WAVE...THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE HEAVIEST MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE GFS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WET...PROLONGS THAT MOISTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY IN A LONG TAIL THAT MAY WELL BE THE REMNANTS OF THE MOST
RECENT WAVE TO HAVE CLEARED THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. EITHER
WAY...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND PEAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A THIRD WAVE MAY ARRIVE ON
THE THURSDAY AFTER NEXT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[HURAKAN]

Mid-level shear may also be a problem

[KWT]

Yeah the shear at all levels is going to be a problem, thats what you get when you have a true jet streak dipping that far down.

Will be interesting to see what happens to the system over the next 12hrs as it gets more shear and the Durinal cycle causes the convective tops to warm as well like it has done in previous days, the combo of the two will probably mean a less organised system by tonight but we shall see, this system seems to be a bit of a fighter!

[wxman57]

Convection still looks quite weak this morning. Tops are relatively warm. No deep convection. NHC won't upgrade without deep convection.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Convection starting to weaken again, looks like Wxman57 may be ready to get bones out again, because its heading into the jaws of a pretty potent Jet...

[cycloneye]

First visible image. Good circulation but little convection.