ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

Don't worry the fat lady is warming up, Bones is on call and wxman57 will be along tomorrow to shatter another hurricane fantasy of many a young and promising youth

Ivanhater: The work goes on and the dream never dies

Probably. I thought it might have a real shot today, but I think it's chances are dropping fast. Shear is increasing and covective tops are warming.

[NDG]

Interesting picture that today's 12z euro painted for 92L once its energy reaches the central Caribbean south of Cuba/Hispaniola by late weekend into early next week:

[Nimbus]

The convection is picking up a little tonight but it looks like there might be some light shear displacing the clouds toward the Northwest.

[ronjon]

Shear looks to be lessening toward the west - 92L has an opportunity for strenghtening tonight and tomorrow - definitely more organized then 6 hours ago. Also looks like a more W-NW heading after jogging NW last night.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[Ivanhater]

Don't worry the fat lady is warming up, Bones is on call and wxman57 will be along tomorrow to shatter another hurricane fantasy of many a young and promising youth

Ivanhater: The work goes on and the dream never dies

Regardless if 92L develops or not, it is a very bad sign of things to come this season. We should not even be having a possibility of something developing this time of year in this location anyway.

I have a feeling Bones will not be showing up often this season

Oh, the wave behind this one looks good as well, and it's June ...

[Blown Away]

GFS forecasts the shear near the islands to start easing beginning in the next 12 hours. IMO, if 92L stays on this general WNW track the shear will be 15-20kts if it goes NW then 20-25kt shear.
http://www.atwc.org/p5.php

[ronjon]

Shear is decreasing immediately west of 92L.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

[wxman57]

Don't worry the fat lady is warming up, Bones is on call and wxman57 will be along tomorrow to shatter another hurricane fantasy of many a young and promising youth

Ivanhater: The work goes on and the dream never dies

Regardless if 92L develops or not, it is a very bad sign of things to come this season. We should not even be having a possibility of something developing this time of year in this location anyway.

I have a feeling Bones will not be showing up often this season

Oh, the wave behind this one looks good as well, and it's June ...

Bones tells me he'll be taking a vacation from August through September.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm hearing so much about the hyperactive season and how this system is a sign of a huge year but is there any possibility that the season won't be so active such as high levels of shear or dry air, I mean warm waters are not a guarantee to an active season. Maybe 10-12 storms instead of 16-20+ like some forecasts predict.

[ronjon]

Steering for 92L is pretty much due west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html

[vbhoutex]

The convection is picking up a little tonight but it looks like there might be some light shear displacing the clouds toward the Northwest.

Don't you mean the NE? What I am seeing is an exposed and somewhat elongated(but apparently concoslidating LLC) with the convection, which may be stronger than earlier, to the NE of the center. Shear appears to already be affecting it and that effect will probably increase for at least the next 24 hours. I'm still of the opinion that 92l had its best chance about 18 hours ago or so. If the shear ahead of it isn't as strong as predicted this could turn into a whole different ball game.
My big question is like many others-What the heck are we doing discussing a strong invest in the mid-Atlantic in June???

[Nimbus]

The convection is picking up a little tonight but it looks like there might be some light shear displacing the clouds toward the Northwest.

Don't you mean the NE? What I am seeing is an exposed and somewhat elongated(but apparently concoslidating LLC) with the convection, which may be stronger than earlier, to the NE of the center.

The early visible shots should show an exposed center with some convection just to the NW. There is also the larger plume further off to the northeast that was sheared earlier.

[Vortex]

92L looks abit more organized this evening compared to just 6-12 hours ago. Analysis of latest hi-res imagery certainly cofirms this deeper convetion over or near the ceter. If this trend persists a TD or even minimal storm seems plausible before the shear takes over in the next 36-48 hours. It should be interesting to see if this trend continues overnight...

[USTropics]

Latest image (9:45PM ET) with shear overlay.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think shear is a problem at this point, as you can see thunderstorms wrapping on the NW side. It has a chance to really wrap up tonight.

[ColdFusion]

I don't think shear is a problem at this point, as you can see thunderstorms wrapping on the NW side. It has a chance to really wrap up tonight.

Shhh...you'll upset the members of the board that wrote this storm off earlier today.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think shear is a problem at this point, as you can see thunderstorms wrapping on the NW side. It has a chance to really wrap up tonight.

Shhh...you'll upset the members of the board that wrote this storm off earlier today.

Got a burst phase going on earlier than last night

[Ivanhater]

Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[USTropics]

I don't think shear is a problem at this point, as you can see thunderstorms wrapping on the NW side. It has a chance to really wrap up tonight.

Completely agree, center is still under ~10kts of shear, with some of the more northern convection being displaced to the NE. From the image I posted above, shear doesn't appear to be an issue with the core until it reaches 47/48W. Convection appears to be on the increase in recent AVN loops, which is quite a bit earlier then what we saw last night (convection did not increase until around 1-2AM)

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looked over the data again (including posts in this thread from throughout the day). I get the feeling that many are trying to find some glimmer of "hope" for 92L. The reality is that the chances of 92L developing now are quite low and I really expect NHC to give it a code yellow by this time tomorrow, if not sooner. Model support is quite lousy still. In fact I have seen some claim the GFS is not getting this right. It so far has performed excellent with 92L. It keeps it as a wave and does not develop it at all. Of course, down the road perhaps 5 days from now it may find itself it a more favorable environment but doesn't nearly every wave headed towards the Western Caribbean this time of year have some kind of potential? We have plenty of time to watch this so I have absolutely no concern about 92L at this time.

What I don't get is that 92E in the EPAC looks like it could very-well become the next named system down the road but there is relatively no interest in the EPAC system compared to 92L. Convection is quite nice, model support is there. If you want to see an invest with real potential, look at this one.