ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Had another look at things. Looks like it is starting to gradually lose organization and shear is starting to pick-up already. It wouldn't surpise me if the NHC downgrades the code for the next update. At this point I would say a less than 50% chance shot of Alex forming out of this (I'd give it about a 10-20% chance at the moment), so it looks like my original thinking of no named system out of this system may hold. 12Z GFS doesn't develop it, but rather sends it towards/through the Northern Leewards as a wave. Just too much dry air and shear for this now rapidly-shrinking invest.

Probably time to start looking elsewhere soon. Unless this TUTT lets up though anything in this part of the Atlantic is not going to have a good chance at developing and persisting through the Caribbean (including the wave behind 92L)

[HUC]

Seems always for me that 92L is weakening;no more equatorial humidity advected in the system.More than shear ,i think that this weakening is due to some drying in the air mass around 92L.
But,this is only the begin of the begining!!!

[vbhoutex]

Hey!!! I think the center went almost on top of this buoy!! 12.000 N 38.000 W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

Winds were 20-24 Kts the switched SSW at 8 knots once it passed. No pressure readings...

The winds alone would suggest one of three things:
1. The center is above 12N
2. The center is tilted W to NE
3. The center is trying to close or opening up right now...

May I have door no. 2 and door no.3? Looking at the posted loops this am I think that both 2 an d 3 are what is happening(center starting to open back up-I don't think it ever got well consolidated-it has always appeared elongated SW to NE to me). Also as stated above, it certainly appears to me that the shear is a lot closer than 2 days away. I think 92L is/was probably at its best within the last 24 hours.

[CourierPR]

Had another look at things. Looks like it is starting to gradually lose organization and shear is starting to pick-up already. It wouldn't surpise me if the NHC downgrades the code for the next update. At this point I would say a less than 50% chance shot of Alex forming out of this (I'd give it about a 10-20% chance at the moment), so it looks like my original thinking of no named system out of this system may hold. 12Z GFS doesn't develop it, but rather sends it towards/through the Northern Leewards as a wave. Just too much dry air and shear for this now rapidly-shrinking invest.

Probably time to start looking elsewhere soon. Unless this TUTT lets up though anything in this part of the Atlantic is not going to have a good chance at developing and persisting through the Caribbean (including the wave behind 92L)

Rapidly shrinking? I don't think so. This may not survive but it is not rapidly falling apart. I'll rely on NHC for forecast info.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Watching 92L - I see the upper level winds indicate a trough around 15N/45W. This weakness would normally suck a developed cyclone in like a hoover. I don't see that happening with 92L. Developing storms don't have much of anything up high so they are steered mostly by the lower levels. As convection is occurring, it is being blown off. If the LLC can survive past 45W then I think this storm is going to be our first named one. Until then I don't see anything but being blown about and pulsing up and down in strength.

[hurricaneCW]

I said yesterday that it's unlikely to be a named storm. Whether other conditions such as the SAL layer and SST's are favorable, the wind shear is still at June standards and no wave that far east in June will be able to overcome that. It's clearly getting ripped apart and I expect it to be obliterated within the next 24 hours.

[Nederlander]

Rapidly shrinking? I don't think so. This may not survive but it is not rapidly falling apart. I'll rely on NHC for forecast info.

I think he was referring to the actual size of the system. Yesterday, 92L show significant banding and starting getting that 'pretty' look to it. Now, ehh not so much. Much smaller in size than it was yesterday IMO.

[CourierPR]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Had another look at things. Looks like it is starting to gradually lose organization and shear is starting to pick-up already. It wouldn't surpise me if the NHC downgrades the code for the next update. At this point I would say a less than 50% chance shot of Alex forming out of this (I'd give it about a 10-20% chance at the moment), so it looks like my original thinking of no named system out of this system may hold. 12Z GFS doesn't develop it, but rather sends it towards/through the Northern Leewards as a wave. Just too much dry air and shear for this now rapidly-shrinking invest.

Probably time to start looking elsewhere soon. Unless this TUTT lets up though anything in this part of the Atlantic is not going to have a good chance at developing and persisting through the Caribbean (including the wave behind 92L)

Gatorcane, upon further review, your points are valid. My humble apology goes out to you.

[Blown Away]

LOL, wow you guys throw in the towel quickly. No doubt shear is going to have a significant influence on 92L and rate now this system is very shallow w/ limited thunderstorms near the circulation center. 92L has great cyclonic rotation and is over warm SST's and I wouldn't be surprised to see the convection pulse again this afternoon. May fall to "Code Orange".

[Swimdude]

LOL, wow you guys throw in the towel quickly. No doubt shear is going to have a significant influence on 92L and rate now this system is very shallow w/ limited thunderstorms near the circulation center. 92L has great cyclonic rotation and is over warm SST's and I wouldn't be surprised to see the convection pulse again this afternoon. May fall to "Code Orange".

^ That's exactly what I've been thinking (after going through the last 5-6 pages since I went to bed last night). I honestly wonder, since the present and future of the storm hasn't itself changed much in the last 8 hours (although the predictions from S2K members have), if many of y'all are just relying too much on how 92L looks visibly? Yesterday night, 92L certainly looked much more *pretty* and *hurricane-like* than it does now, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was organizing more or less than it is now. After all, the NHC didn't lower their code red (60%) [yet].

A more exaggerated example of this is Tropical Storm Erika from last September. If you didn't know any better, this looks like a hurricane--if an eye opened up in the middle of that, it would easily be a cat-2, right? But now you remember that Erika was hugely lopsided, with the center way off to the West of this blob. The winds in this storm were no more than 45 mph, and Erika would be history within 24 hours.



^Tropical Storm Erika, 2009

[HurricaneJoe22]

that was the 2 a.m. TWO

[HURAKAN]

MEDIUM CHANCE - 40%

085
ABNT20 KNHC 141739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[Ivanhater]

I mentioned this in the model thread, remember this is a BAND if shear, not a constant all the way to the U.S, that will in the weakening phase, if it can keep some energy after the band, it will have a shot imo. No sense in making a decision one way or another if this will survive, let's see what happens after the band of shear.

[cycloneye]

Sorry for the wrong outlook as I clicked the wrong one on the list but that happens.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[StormClouds63]

Next contestant, please. Alex isn't ready to make his debut just yet.

[Frank2]

I just read the 2 TWO - awesome (Gil Clark was right)...

Frank

[vacanechaser]

Sorry for the wrong outlook as I clicked the wrong one on the list but that happens.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

tighten up down there!!!!

its interesting that the globals show nothing really... until we see more of the globals come into agreement on something developing, i think we are looking at a strong invest and nothing more... at least at this point.. it certainly shows a sign of things to come i am afraid for the season!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

Bill Read talking about 92L ...

[Stormcenter]

Oh well......next.

[tolakram]

Take a look at the AVN loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

See those clouds racing off to the NE just ahead of the system? I thought 92L had a chance when it was showing solid organization but now that it's struggling I can't see anything developing until it's well past that shear. Never say never, of course, but you can almost depend on all shear forecasts to be wrong.