ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[blp]

It looks like it is consolidating its convection closer to the COC this evening. It was having trouble yesterday and most of the day today with its large size. It definitely has more spin today. Shear does look to be strong above 10N and so it has a small window to develop.

[blp]

Nice rotation....

[Ivanhater]

[weatherwindow]

bonjour mon amis....it appears that our robust friend may have a future in the southwestern atlantic...let us never underestimate the value of a large envelope. assuming trop cyclogenesis east of 40w, would this be a record contender for june?....exciting stuff

[HURAKAN]

TCFA

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 39.0W TO 10.8N 44.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 08.2N AND 38.5W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
AT 14/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW WIND SHEER,
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, IT IS
LATER ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT LESS
CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150600Z.//

[hockeytim19]

Interesting map showing some analog storm tracks

[hockeytim19]

Check out the WV loop at the below link. Put on the Lat/Lon lines and watch the blob of thunderstorms at 15N/50W... watch as it moves NNE and hits the jet streak and is completely buzzed. Possible foreshadowing of 92L's future...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[boca]

NWS in San Juan seem to think that 92L will open up into an open wave by the time of this weekend in that area.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 37W IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND APPEARS THIS SYSTEM HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE IN
BECOMING THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WNW OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERING STRONG SHEAR AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE REGION SAT BUT
AS AN OPEN WAVE. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. SO RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE WET BUT
THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH HAS YET
TO FORM. GIVEN GOOD TRACK RECORD OF EUROPEAN MODEL WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONES OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS IT APPEARS WILL SEE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THIS STORM FORMS OR NOT...BOTTOMLINE IS THAT CONDITIONS IN
THE TROP ATLC ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AND PEOPLE SHOULD GO OVER THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND BE READY FOR
THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT NO MATTER WHEN IT MIGHT COMING
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR.

[jaxfladude]

Interesting map showing some analog storm tracks

Oh noes, Hurricane Dora of 1964 fame is one of the analog storm tracks
Go poof Invest 92L!
"I have a bad feeling about this(invest/season)!"

No matter what is in Invest 92L's future, this is not good, may fate be kind to all.

[Weatherfreak000]

I believe we may already have Tropical Storm Alex.


The season has begun.

[SunnyThoughts]

Nice to see everyone, hope everyone is prepared for the season ahead. Just amazing that we are looking this far out in the Atlantic in June. I look forward to the input of everyone associated with S2K as we dive head first into what looks to be a VERY busy Hurricane season.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I believe we may already have Tropical Storm Alex.


The season has begun.

So, you dont stick anymore to the 30% chance of development you gave it earlier today?

[Weatherfreak000]

I believe we may already have Tropical Storm Alex.


The season has begun.

So, you dont stick anymore to the 30% chance of development you gave it earlier today?

Hard to go against a well defined LLC. The problem is convection, and has always been the problem. The reason I said that was because I believed with the convection collapsing the LLC wouldn't get as well organized as it has. We definitely still need to see convection refiring to see this storm get the NHC upgrade

[tailgater]

I believe we may already have Tropical Storm Alex.


The season has begun.

Why do think this is already Alex or is that just your gut feeling?

[Weatherfreak000]

I believe we may already have Tropical Storm Alex.


The season has begun.

Why do think this is already Alex or is that just your gut feeling?

To quote Wxman, it has a clear, well-defined LLC and winds of probably at least TD range.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I believe we may already have Tropical Storm Alex.


The season has begun.

So, you dont stick anymore to the 30% chance of development you gave it earlier today?

Hard to go against a well defined LLC. The problem is convection, and has always been the problem. The reason I said that was because I believed with the convection collapsing the LLC wouldn't get as well organized as it has. We definitely still need to see convection refiring to see this storm definitely get upgraded.

Very true. It will be very interesting to see how it behaves overnight and how it looks when we wake up in the morning to see whether or not is the deal.

[USTropics]

latest ASCAT scan (4:01UTC/12:01ET) caught most of Invest 92L, center appears elongated from NE to SW but evident.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like we are getting storms firing OVER the center for the first time, let's see if it holds

[Fego]

Hurricane-Master-PR, glad to read you.
As for the 92L, I'm keeping an eye in the shear values outlook. Timing will make the difference.