ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Cdeck81]

In case anyone missed it,here is the video that Joe Bastardi made this afternoon about 92L.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp

Thank you for that video, Cycloneye!

[boca]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think 92L has a great shot at depression status or a minimum tropical storm.I think the 20 to 25 mph shear out in front by 50w will keep this system in check or possible get ripped apart like gatorcane stated above.This system is so large that I think it might take another 48 hours of pulsing before it gets to TD status.This still has to tighten up a bit.The high to the north looks like it stays in tact enough to keep 92L in the Caribbean.

Here's the shear map and it looks like its going to have a rough time with the shear in the 20+ range till 60w when it drops off.It has 10 degrees of high shear to go thru from 50w to 60w.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Blown Away]

I like looping that shear map! Remember 92L is a few days away from that shear and the shear seems to be peaking in that area rate now and it's difficult to say the shear will be as strong in 3 days!

[bvigal]

GFS shear forecast 00z/15th

more at http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane

[blp]

We are RED. 60% now.

[boca]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE



This might pop earlier and I said 48hrs.

[Blown Away]

I noticed the OOz models keep 92L as a moderate TS through 120 hours and places the system near 14N/60W. That position is almost through the shear which tells me the models see 92L surviving as it passes through the @20kt shear. The next few runs of models should be interesting because the 120 hour mark will be in very light shear.

[gatorcane]

I took another really close look a the models. I basically see that the CMC and UKMET are the two models that show shear out ahead of 92L the lightest (relatively-speaking) around 50W and westwards to the Leewards. The ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, GFS, and NOGAPS show some strong shear ahead and really lose 92L. Given the time of year, that is pretty expected. Usually when you have this good of a consensus with a system in the medium forecasting range, it happens.

That's telling me that there is a better-than-not chance that should it develop, it will become an open wave again before it could really threaten any land areas (such as the Leewards). As far as what happens past the shear zone where it appears some more favorable conditions exist, well it could be so disrupted going through that it really may not be able to recover that quickly if at all.

That said, pretty cool to be tracking a potential Cape Verde system so early in the season.

[boca]

I wonder because of 92L size it might be able to overcome that shear and actually make it.I can't believe I'm talking about a possible Cape Verde system in June.

[MGC]

Back from Alaska and the tropics are cooking. 92L looks like it has a decent shot a becoming at TC, and the wave just coming off Africa looks good too. I hate to think what July and August will bring us if the waves keep rolling off Africa in such a manner. Good to be home......MGC

[Blown Away]

I took another really close look a the models. I basically see that the CMC and UKMET are the two models that show shear out ahead of 92L the lightest (relatively-speaking) around 50W and westwards to the Leewards. The ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF, GFS, and NOGAPS show some strong shear ahead and really lose 92L. Given the time of year, that is pretty expected. Usually when you have this good of a consensus with a system in the medium forecasting range, it happens.

That's telling me that there is a better-than-not chance that should it develop, it will become an open wave again before it could really threaten any land areas (such as the Leewards). As far as what happens past the shear zone where it appears some more favorable conditions exist, well it could be so disrupted going through that it really may not be able to recover that quickly if at all.

That said, pretty cool to be tracking a potential Cape Verde system so early in the season.

NHC gives a 60% shot in the next 48 hours. The HWRF drives 92L NW into the strongest shear, NW track does not seem likely. The GFDL loses 92L before it ever encounters the shear. The 00z ships keep 92L as a TS through the shear. Climatology says no, but we have seen climatology busted so many times over the past few years.

[cycloneye]

The 00z surface analysis from TAFB.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Duddy]

I have learned that climatology no longer matters. Especially during seasons like this one might turn out to be.

[NOLA2010]

So what is the National Hurricane Center going to do at the 2AM EST advisory? Just keep it at a 60% of development?

[HURAKAN]

So what is the National Hurricane Center going to do at the 2AM EST advisory? Just keep it at a 60% of development?

I don't see the need to increase or decrease. Lets see how it responds to D-MAX. Normally, we will see the convection increase by the morning hours.

[boca]

Doesn't 92L know that its only June and the system needs to form in the Western Caribbean like climitology says. Oh wait I think we might have to throw out climitology this season.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow could be interesting, good night!

[Ivanhater]

[CourierPR]

Ivanhater, that's an awesome loop. I find it just a little unnerving to see that forming where it is in mid June.