ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

60 percent chance? Code red, but graphic still has 92L as orange.

It delays to update but in a couple of minutes it will.

[SeminoleWind]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=ir

Looking more Organized

[KWT]

I think we will probably see an upgrade come the first vis imagery tomorrow, esp as the system should be on the upward swing in terms of convection by that time as well...

[lester]

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think we will probably see an upgrade come the first vis imagery tomorrow, esp as the system should be on the upward swing in terms of convection by that time as well...

Oh yes. I agree there. TD by 5/8AM TS by 11/2Am/Pm

[Blown Away]

What happen to Storm2k for the past few hours?

JB onboard w/ 92L developing and going into the Caribbean!
http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... bbling.asp

[tolakram]

Looking at TPW you can really see this thing winding up. Looks like the center is northwest of what appeared earlier to be the center.



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[Cdeck81]

Code RED!

[brunota2003]

We have 196 people browsing the site currently, and 149 of them are guests. If you are a guest lurking, and would like to talk about 92L, then please feel free to join!

[Cdeck81]

What happen to Storm2k for the past few hours?

JB onboard w/ 92L developing and going into the Caribbean!
http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... bbling.asp

I think the servers were down.

[Ivanhater]

I expect thunderstorms to continue to grow in and around the center tonight and be upgraded to TD status once visible comes in.

[cycloneye]

What happen to Storm2k for the past few hours?

JB onboard w/ 92L developing and going into the Caribbean!
http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... bbling.asp

I think the servers were down.

The Admins are looking for the real cause of the blackout.They will provide the information later on.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I couldnt get on to STORM2K before, i thought i was banned! lol yeah, to many peeps got on or something.

I agree with the posts that say TD by vis sat. (which would be about 5-6AM?)

[lester]

I couldnt get on to STORM2K before, i thought i was banned! lol yeah, to many peeps got on or something.

I agree with the posts that say TD by vis sat. (which would be about 5-6AM?)

Forum's been down the past few hours.

Yea I agree it should be TD1 by tomorrow.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I couldnt get on to STORM2K before, i thought i was banned! lol yeah, to many peeps got on or something.

I agree with the posts that say TD by vis sat. (which would be about 5-6AM?)

Forum's been down the past few hours.

Yea I agree it should be TD1 by tomorrow.

lol. your avatar is freaking me out. Anyway..I also think TS by tommorow night or Tuesday morning.

[Blown Away]

The thunderstorms have really begun to concentrate near the circulation center this afternoon! I really enjoy watching the transition from wave to TD!

[Sihara]

What happen to Storm2k for the past few hours?

That's what I'd like to know - kept trying to access it without success - a moment ago I tried to make a post and was immediately booted off. Very frustrating - S2K withdrawal!

Back to 92L - thanks to Wxman57 for your analysis. This thing is impressive, but what's really amazing is how far east it formed this early in the season. Just a feeling, but it could portend a busy and destructive CV season. Just what FL -or any part of the gulf coast - does NOT need.

It will be interesting to see what happens with it tomorrow. Just looking at it, could swear I've seen TD's look less impressive.

[Weatherfreak000]

I wonder what pro met opinion is now, especially after the convective waning??

[SeminoleWind]

what are the realistic chances that this can stay organized and make it to the islands?

[KWT]

Yep thats the key, to get the convergence over the center of the system, thats the key thing I learnt over the years from reading Derek Ortt's post, for developing systems you really want one region of higher convergence levels over the system.