ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[perk]

Air Force Met i'd be really interested in your take on development chances for 92L.

[Cryomaniac]

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise, and as such should not be used for any purpose

This system seems to developing, and as has been mentioned a lot, that doesn't bode well for the season as a whole. I can't see this being more than a TS, but obviously track is very important even in that case. We could see code red later and then a TD in 24 hours time.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Off topic=Look what is emerging West Africa.Are we looking at what may be Bonnie in the future? I know I am way ahead of myself,but I am posting this image to point out that already we can see why this 2010 season will be as the experts have forecasted.

The second wave looks impressive. Bonnie?

(what was the replacment name for charley? I know Ivan was Igor)

[lester]

Off topic=Look what is emerging West Africa.Are we looking at what may be Bonnie in the future? I know I am way ahead of myself,but I am posting this image to point out that already we can see why this 2010 season will be as the experts have forecasted.

The second wave looks impressive. Bonnie?

(what was the replacment name for charley? I know Ivan was Igor)

Colin.

[Ivanhater]

I agree this is on the WAY to development, which if conditions were favorable a couple days out, certainly would continue. My only concern is if it takes time to develop, it will not reach the full potential. Still looking fr a concentration of thunderstorms over the center today/tonight.

[TexasStorm]

The ship models all ways seem to shoot high on the intensity

Hi all I am new to this sight and have very much enjoyed reading your insight. The link below is a intesity forcast I found for invest 92 I thought looked a little high with winds going to 80 knts in 72 hours? This is the ships forecast, any input would be appreciated.

Matt

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[bvigal]

NHC says conditions are conducive for slow development. I guess we'll see who's right on this issue

That's right, Lester. At 8am it was a 30% chance, now at 2pm it's a 50% chance. So to SOMEONE at NHC, it apparently got BETTER organized, not LESS organized, despite shear, etc. It's going to be a BUSY season folks, no room for here. I had trouble getting my post screens to render, and it's only an invest! We have slow internet in the islands, lots of 'hops'. Please everyone, on "Active" forum, STAY ESSENTIAL.

[Gustywind]

Off topic=Look what is emerging West Africa.Are we looking at what may be Bonnie in the future? I know I am way ahead of myself,but I am posting this image to point out that already we can see why this 2010 season will be as the experts have forecasted.

hey hey

[wxman57]

Its appearance indicates it's considerably better organized now. Significant banding is evident, and I think we do have a tightening LLC. In fact, it could technically be classified as a TD already. I have seen far less organized systems called a TD in recent years. I do think that the shear over the eastern Caribbean would have a significant impact on its intensity, but if it doesn't destroy it then it could be threatening Cuba, southern Florida then reach the eastern Gulf around the 25th.

Oh, and I think there's a very good chance it'll be TD One tomorrow morning and Alex within 24-36 hrs form now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Its appearance indicates it's considerably better organized now. Significant banding is evident, and I think we do have a tightening LLC. In fact, it could technically be classified as a TD already. I have seen far less organized systems called a TD in recent years. I do think that the shear over the eastern Caribbean would have a significant impact on its intensity, but if it doesn't destroy it then it could be threatening Cuba, southern Florida then reach the eastern Gulf around the 25th.

Oh, and I think there's a very good chance it'll be TD One tomorrow morning and Alex within 24-36 hrs form now.

Just wondering, what station do you work for?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Glad you're back up Storm2K.

Edited to add I just read vbhoutex "ALL MEMBERS please read this thread again, especially about the "one- liners", and "nonsense" posts." http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97927&hilit=

Sorry. I just missed ya!

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[tolakram]

Just wondering, what station do you work for?

He's a private forecaster providing weather for clients in the gulf (at least, may be more).

[KWT]

Well good to see S2k back just in time for this to be made a Code Red...its cherry time!

Anyway as Wxman57 said if what some of the models are suggesting comes off then we could see this system survive or possibly regenerate down the line, esp if it can get through the shear and make it up past say 20-25N by 120-144hrs time...

[HurricaneBelle]

Looks like someone ordered a code red.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well good to see S2k back just in time for this to be made a Code Red...its cherry time!

Anyway as Wxman57 said if what some of the models are suggesting comes off then we could see this system survive or possibly regenerate down the line, esp if it can get through the shear and make it up past say 20-25N by 120-144hrs time...

Oh good, its back up.

[cycloneye]

[lester]

Graphic hasn't updated yet.

[Recurve]

THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

60 percent chance? Code red, but graphic still has 92L as orange.

Edit -- I forgot graphic is changed only on schedule.

Edit again -- now it's red.