ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like it's breaking down a bit.

It will redevelop in the evening, thats what TC's do.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

My approximate circulation center and the recent convection building around the center??

[KWT]

Yeah its just the normal daytime warming that you see in the tropics of the cloud tops, in these developing systems you'll tend to find it takes a couple of cycles usually to really set-up a strong LLC, once you have that the waxing and waning of the convection isn't quite as important.

They'll probably raise to 50% but keep code Orange, since orange means 30-50%.

[CourierPR]

Looks like it's breaking down a bit.

Actually, it appears to be getting better organized to these untrained eyes.

[Air Force Met]

I think TD at 8PM TS at 2AM

Doubtful. NHC doesn't like to upgrade invests that far out...even if they look like they meet the criteria...until they are pretty sure it won't fizzle. It needs core convection for at least 12-18 hours before they will consider it.

That's how the game is played.

EDIT: And they CERTAINLY are not going to upgrade a system in the middle of the night (remember...its only 4 or 5 hours from sunset where the system is). If they do not have recon or ship reports (which they don't)...they will not upgrade a system overnight to a TD or TS without vis imagery unless there is just no way around it. They will wait for daylight.

[cycloneye]

% up to 50.

ABNT20 KNHC 131730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Blown Away]

Interesting the NHC says WNW or NW, anxious to see the 18z models!!

[KWT]

Interesting the NHC says WNW or NW, anxious to see the 18z models!!

I suspect the fact they make reference to the NW is probably because the hurricane models both take this system instantly to the NW.

I'd have thought we will keep a WNW motion once the system develops and possibly a bend back westwards, with probably the system getting severely sheared once it gets to between 50-60W.

I suspect we maybe watching this system for quite some time yet, whilst I think it'll not have a long first life, you can never rule out regeneration like we saw with Ana last year.

[Weatherfreak000]

I disagree with some posts i've been seeing regarding intensity.

I think it's clear that not only is 92L not developing quickly, I would say it's weakening. There is really no further need to worry about daily convective waning and waxing if the system has a LLC. That would mean to imply it is now capable of sustaining itself, and therefore should be doing so. But I think it is safe to say that is not the case.

Why? It is uncertain to me. Wxman claims there is shear and I completely agree. I see what I believe to be direct shear impacting the storm from the NW and it has completely destroyed the convective structure. I am now looking for the shear to persist and eventually destroy the LLC.

Bumping my odds down to 30%.

[lester]

I disagree with some posts i've been seeing regarding intensity.

I think it's clear that not only is 92L not developing quickly, I would say it's weakening. There is really no further need to worry about daily convective waning and waxing if the system has a LLC. That would mean to imply it is now capable of sustaining itself, and therefore should be doing so. But I think it is safe to say that is not the case.

Why? It is uncertain to me. Wxman claims there is shear and I completely agree. I see what I believe to be direct shear impacting the storm from the NW and it has completely destroyed the convective structure. I am now looking for the shear to persist and eventually destroy the LLC.

Bumping my odds down to 30%.

NHC says conditions are conducive for slow development. I guess we'll see who's right on this issue

[gatorcane]

Impressive indeed (not a big surprise given a large upper antic-cylone it is still under), however, will stick to my forecast that it will not become a named storm as shear really starts to hammer it in a few days. It's also at a very low lattitude not to mention the GFS doesn't really like area. The best it may look is the next 24-48 hours or so.

That said, this may be a harbinger of things to come --- that the Cape Verde season could get quite active this year with a system out there that is already this impressive.

[Blown Away]

Interesting the NHC says WNW or NW, anxious to see the 18z models!!

I suspect the fact they make reference to the NW is probably because the hurricane models both take this system instantly to the NW.

I'd have thought we will keep a WNW motion once the system develops and possibly a bend back westwards, with probably the system getting severely sheared once it gets to between 50-60W.

I suspect we maybe watching this system for quite some time yet, whilst I think it'll not have a long first life, you can never rule out regeneration like we saw with Ana last year.

If 92L maintains a general WNW track it will be 4 days before the shear gets bad based on current conditions. I don't put high confidence in shear maps 4 days out

[cycloneye]

Off topic=Look what is emerging West Africa.Are we looking at what may be Bonnie in the future? I know I am way ahead of myself,but I am posting this image to point out that already we can see why this 2010 season will be as the experts have forecasted.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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I am going to say 50% for 24 Hours, then 70% for 48. Once nighttime comes, it should start up.

[RL3AO]

I think TD at 8PM TS at 2AM

It just doesn't happen that quick. There are clear signs of a MLC and maybe some signs of some sort of LLC, but clearly there is no well defined surface circulation. Tomorrow afternoon at the earliest IMO if things go very well.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've done a quick mental analysis of 92L. I would keep chances at 40%. I see a lot of outflow, but a subtle lack of intense convection. Shear will be on the rise in about 48 hours, but all other conditions appear to be in the positive direction.

I will be flying across country tonight for a week, so I'm not sure if I will get a full forecast out tonight or not. I probably will not have a whole lot of time to do forecasts for the next 2 weeks. I will post a forecast from the airport or from the plane if I have wifi. I am quite a bit intrigued by this system.

[minter45]

Hi all I am new to this sight and have very much enjoyed reading your insight. The link below is a intesity forcast I found for invest 92 I thought looked a little high with winds going to 80 knts in 72 hours? This is the ships forecast, any input would be appreciated.

Matt

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[KWT]

If 92L maintains a general WNW track it will be 4 days before the shear gets bad based on current conditions. I don't put high confidence in shear maps 4 days out

Whilst I would normally agree with you with regards to those shear maps, I think looking at the actual levels of shear, there is a clear jet streak extending right through the Caribbean itself and thats going to have to get itself out of the way with some upstream changes, which I can't see happening for another 5-7 days yet, which will be too late for 92L.

Plus the shear really isn't that far away from 92L, every bit of latitude it gains puts the northern quadrants closer to the shear levels.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hi all I am new to this sight and have very much enjoyed reading your insight. The link below is a intesity forcast I found for invest 92 I thought looked a little high with winds going to 80 knts in 72 hours? This is the ships forecast, any input would be appreciated.

Matt

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Welcome to STORM2K. Yes, i do think so..but it has held that intensity(only slight changes) for almost 24 Hours now.