ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

That's 7 hours old

And what's the matter? Don't forget Hurakan those who want to compared it 7 hours ago...

[Parungo]

Impressive...

[HURAKAN]

And what's the matter? Don't forget Hurakan those who want to compared it 7 hours ago...

LOL



More current

[KWT]

7hrs old, no it isn't!!

Remember the times are UTC, therefore the image Hurakan put up before of 12.15 UTC was actually just over an hour and a bit ago...

Parungo, that loop is great, it also shows that stable cloud deck I've been talking about starting to plunge WSW...

[Gustywind]

And what's the matter? Don't forget Hurakan those who want to compared it 7 hours ago...

LOL



More current

Thanks my friend HURAKAN , we appreciate! We're a FAMILY and each has the opportunity to provide informations

[HURAKAN]

7hrs old, no it isn't!!

Remember the times are UTC, therefore the image Hurakan put up before of 12.15 UTC was actually just over an hour and a bit ago...

The image that Gusty posted says 6:15 UTC, Right now it's 13:30 UTC. That's 7 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

We have images at anytime at any moment from everybody and we're all happy Hurakan... that's the main story

[wxman57]

WV loops shows strong WSW winds just NW of the disturbance that are already disrupting the outflow in that quadrant. It may not have a large time window for development.

[cycloneye]

They made a quick update on the 12z Best track.

AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 67N, 342W, 25, 1011, DB

[lonelymike]

WV loops shows strong WSW winds just NW of the disturbance that are already disrupting the outflow in that quadrant. It may not have a large time window for development.

I think I just heard screaming from Pensacola to Maine! Another hurricane dream crushed by wxman57

[Blown Away]

IF 92 develops I don't see much opportunity for the system to miss the islands. Look at the WV loop, looks like a hurricane w/ an eye in the NE GOM, cool low!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

WV loops shows strong WSW winds just NW of the disturbance that are already disrupting the outflow in that quadrant. It may not have a large time window for development.

I think I just heard screaming from Pensacola to Maine! Another hurricane dream crushed by wxman57

Just had a look at the WV and you can see what Wxman57 said, the NW outer region of the system is starting to get hit by those WSW winds. I'd imagine though for a time that may help to fan the system before the system actually moves into the higher shear region, then the troubles for it probably start.

[NDG]

92L for this time of the year is a good example of when we get very warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and very little if any SAL.
The euro has 92L to have decent UL conditions for the next 36 to 48 hrs, more than plenty time to maybe have our 1st name system out of this possibly. After that the most that it has encountering is 20-25 knots of windshear over its center, which may not be detructive enough to make it to the windward islands.

[Blown Away]

If 92L doesn't gain latitude soon its proximity to SA will prevent development. 92L is a couple of days away from the shear to the NW and it appears the shear to the WSW is easing a little. IMO, the broad circulation is near 7.5 -8N.

[KWT]

I'm still not happy with the way the SAL layer seems to be drawing into the circulation from the northern side, you can even see where the convection is lacking at the moment.

I'd imagine given its in the ITCZ there should be decent mixing out but it may just slow things down if the trend carries on.

Still suspect we will get a depression out of this however...no real reason why it can't happen in the short term, of course past 48hrs other issues will probably slowly weaken the system again.

[cycloneye]

I'm still not happy with the way the SAL layer seems to be drawing into the circulation from the northern side, you can even see where the convection is lacking at the moment.

I'd imagine given its in the ITCZ there should be decent mixing out but it may just slow things down if the trend carries on.

Still suspect we will get a depression out of this however...no real reason why it can't happen in the short term, of course past 48hrs other issues will probably slowly weaken the system again.

Is not a big sal outbreak,but there is some to the north.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Notice in the SAL map, way to the NW in Invest 92's track there is no SAL

[NDG]

I'm still not happy with the way the SAL layer seems to be drawing into the circulation from the northern side, you can even see where the convection is lacking at the moment.

I'd imagine given its in the ITCZ there should be decent mixing out but it may just slow things down if the trend carries on.

Still suspect we will get a depression out of this however...no real reason why it can't happen in the short term, of course past 48hrs other issues will probably slowly weaken the system again.

Is not a big sal outbreak,but there is some to the north.

I agree, SAL is not that bad and is fairly far to the north to not really affect this system, 92L is over a very moist environment and drawing in very moist airmass more in.

[cycloneye]

No visit yet by planes as is still far from land.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 13 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-013

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.