ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[floridasun78]

other thing this be good weakup call for all who not ready for season . this could be what alot forecaster were saying busy season alhead

[Brent]

Wow is all I have to say. This would be a wow in September...

[boca]

I haven't been on in a couple of days and boom 92L. Just read thru 7 pages quite amazing.This will develop in my opinion looking at developing banding features on sat pic.Will this be a fish thats the question.

[brunota2003]

That image Brent posted looks similar to disturbances in the WPAC about 24 to 36 hours before they become a TD. Banding features looking like they are appearing, with convection on the southern side, then the one little ball over where the LLC forms usually.

[KWT]

That is an insane system for June....

Anyway the conditions are more akin to August down there right now, you've got zero SAL around it, very low shear and the SST's are good as well...

Therefore I wouldn't be all that shocked to see this end up at least as TD1, whether it makes it to Alex will depend much on the strength of the shear once it gets further west...

[Explorer93]

Is it me or is the forecast models looking a little like Hurricane Ivans'? Just a bit?

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Here are the first visible images.

[KWT]

Looking very good right now, of course lets see what happens by the afternoon hours there and the cloud tops warm somewhat.

It does look a lot like a WPAC type disturbance...lets hope this season doesn't go the way they usually do...

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Code orange[img][/img]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
24W-40W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 29W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

[KWT]

The thing that is most striking is the fact that it has a pretty decent looking structure for this stage. That being said when they look like this I tend to find they do need a little time to really get going, which is something 92L may not have if it doesn't stay nearly due west.

[bob rulz]

As far as I know, this storm in 1933:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1933_ ... _track.png

and Ana in 1979:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ana_1979_track.png

are the only storms on record to form east of the Windward Islands in June.

[cycloneye]

History in the making by being the farthest east to develop in early June?

[KWT]

That 1933 storm probably formed further east then what is suggested there as well, that being said I doubt it happens like that unless it manages to track west long enough for the shear to decrease further north.

[Hurricane Andrew]

WOW! we have quite a storm here. I think if it can survive till tonight, when its cloud tops cool again, we might have TD1.

[bob rulz]

That 1933 storm probably formed further east then what is suggested there as well, that being said I doubt it happens like that unless it manages to track west long enough for the shear to decrease further north.

1933 was an incredible year in so many ways....I can't even begin to imagine what it would've looked like if we had satellite coverage back then.

Back on topic, I echo the consensus here...I can't believe we're seeing a wave of this magnitude in June. Even the professionals are giving it a chance!

[KWT]

The fact we are even talking about a possible system developing that far south-east is pretty unreal.

As has been said, the system more or less has conditions you'd find later in the season usually right now, esp with the lack of SAL around the systems circulation.

[OURAGAN]

I never saw a system like that so far east

[OURAGAN]

so far south in the atlantic

[KWT]

Its pretty rare to get a system that far east even in July looking as good as it does, yet alone in June.