Shear lifting out/ Season likely to start soon

[Frank2]

On the contrary, the shear seems to be hanging tough in the Caribbean and MDR. I know we are in ENSO neutral at the moment, but the pattern looks a bit like left over Nino type shear.

I agree - the last Invest was obliterated by shear over the Lesser Antilles, so not sure why some are saying it's below average - in fact, it's still at Winter/El Nino levels in some areas...

If (if) we get through June without anything (not even a depression) then that'll be significant, since climatologically the "season" actually begins in early May (statistically it's May 5), and if we get through the first two months without even a whimper (though we did have the one non-tropical system in May), that'll be something to consider in the long run, though of course we all understand that El Nino is still in the weakening stage...

Frank

[Macrocane]

What do you mean when you say that the season begins in early May? Did you mean June? IMO if we don't have tropical systems in June or July it doesn't mean that the season can't be hyperactive, it has been said before that seasons like 1969, 1998 and 2004 had a slow start but in August the activity ramped up.

[cycloneye]

we all understand that El Nino is still in the weakening stage...

El Nino is gone right now as ENSO is in Neutral status (In fact,cold neutral -0.4C) as you can see in the last ENSO updates by CPC and BoM in the ENSO thread at link below.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&p=1989259#p1989259

[Scorpion]

On the contrary, the shear seems to be hanging tough in the Caribbean and MDR. I know we are in ENSO neutral at the moment, but the pattern looks a bit like left over Nino type shear.

I agree - the last Invest was obliterated by shear over the Lesser Antilles, so not sure why some are saying it's below average - in fact, it's still at Winter/El Nino levels in some areas...

If (if) we get through June without anything (not even a depression) then that'll be significant, since climatologically the "season" actually begins in early May (statistically it's May 5), and if we get through the first two months without even a whimper (though we did have the one non-tropical system in May), that'll be something to consider in the long run, though of course we all understand that El Nino is still in the weakening stage...

Frank

Yup.. season cancel. 11 NS at best.

[Aquawind]

Looks like June. It's still spring people.

Bingo!

[Ivanhater]

On the contrary, the shear seems to be hanging tough in the Caribbean and MDR. I know we are in ENSO neutral at the moment, but the pattern looks a bit like left over Nino type shear.

I agree - the last Invest was obliterated by shear over the Lesser Antilles, so not sure why some are saying it's below average - in fact, it's still at Winter/El Nino levels in some areas...

If (if) we get through June without anything (not even a depression) then that'll be significant, since climatologically the "season" actually begins in early May (statistically it's May 5), and if we get through the first two months without even a whimper (though we did have the one non-tropical system in May), that'll be something to consider in the long run, though of course we all understand that El Nino is still in the weakening stage...

Frank

That's a whole lot of wishful thinking IMO, would be nice if this were the case; but it wont be.

Shear is actually below normal across the entire basin for this time of year and will likely stay that way for the entire season.

Gulf



Caribbean



Atlantic



Top this with astronomically SST anomalies across the ENTIRE basin, even more than 2005 in most cases!



Also the Heat content is stronger now than this time in 2005!

2010



2005


Top all this with the the forecast for La Nina and really low pressures across the entire Atlantic, I don't see how we will escape without a very active season.

[Aquawind]

Alright Ivanhater.. That's enough outta you! We get it! LOL

[Ivanhater]

Alright Ivanhater.. That's enough outta you! We get it! LOL

Lol, I was thinking of adding more but I'll leave it

[KWT]

On the contrary, the shear seems to be hanging tough in the Caribbean and MDR. I know we are in ENSO neutral at the moment, but the pattern looks a bit like left over Nino type shear.

I agree - the last Invest was obliterated by shear over the Lesser Antilles, so not sure why some are saying it's below average - in fact, it's still at Winter/El Nino levels in some areas...

If (if) we get through June without anything (not even a depression) then that'll be significant, since climatologically the "season" actually begins in early May (statistically it's May 5), and if we get through the first two months without even a whimper (though we did have the one non-tropical system in May), that'll be something to consider in the long run, though of course we all understand that El Nino is still in the weakening stage...

Frank

Sorry Frank but shear is well below average as the graphs earlier put up prove, infact the shear is forecast to really drop down again in the basin in the next 4-5 days.

As for your second point, the first storm even in the top 8 most active ever seasons was the 31st of May...so yeah we are a little behind the pace...but even if we get through June without anything 18-20 storms is still quite possible...

If you want proof Frank, just read back about 1969, which as you maybe aware had 0/0/0 by mid July...and ended at 18/11/5...which is close to what is being forecasted this year by many.

[lonelymike]

I've always thought that Frank's posts have been well thought out. He doesn't shoot from the hip

[Ivanhater]

Won't be quiet for to much longer

[KWT]

Those MJO charts are to be looked at much the same way as the global models are out from 9-15 days, it may well be good for general trends but I wouldn't get too sucked into it.