ITCZ placement now north of mean

[Aquawind]

May #3 2010 ----13.6 14.5 14.5 14.9 14.7 13.0 12.6 12.3 11.8 12.8 14.1
May #3 2005 ----10.5 13.3 15.4 17.3 16.4 14.5 13.6 13.5 13.2 14.5 16.2

The ITCZ mean lat for the last period in May 2010 is very close to the average but, a little south yet. In 2005 the ITCZ was well ahead of shedule except for the very western tip.

May #2 2005 ----13.4 14.2 15.0 15.0 13.2 11.3 11.1 11.0 9.9 10.3 12.4
May #3 2005 ----10.5 13.3 15.4 17.3 16.4 14.5 13.6 13.5 13.2 14.5 16.2

You can see in 2005 the ITCZ made a major jump to the north overall at the end of May and stayed above average for most of the season.

In 2005 our first 3 sytems were WC and BOC systems and Dennis was first to wave pop near the ITCZ in the EC. So even in a hyper-active seasoon like 2005 we didn't have much ITCZ action until July 5th with Dennis and then Emily both Majors.

The same period in 1998 was even further north at this time and stayed that way for most of the season and 1996 an active CV season was the same. In contrast the slow 1993 season showed the ITCZ was further south at the same time.

May #3 1998 ----12.9 14.5 16.4 17.5 17.5 15.5 14.3 13.8 12.9 14.1 14.4
May #3 1996 ----15.7 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.8 15.0 14.7 12.3 12.0 11.3 11.0
May #3 1993 ----14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.7 15.2 15.2 14.8 14.0 13.9 14.3

The 2010 ITCZ in a little south of these busy years but, it has some time before the CV activity even kicked in during the hyper-active seasons like 2005 where the ITCZ is north of the average means.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml

Title edit..

[Macrocane]

I have noticed that since 2006 the ITCZ has moved north later than average, I don't know why but it seems that this year the trend continues.

[cycloneye]

Good topic Paul. If this season is going to be very active (In some cases hyperactive) as the experts have forecasted in their seasonal outlooks,the ITCZ has to move north of the mean by July.

[Gustywind]

Matter of days fort the ITCZ...

[KWT]

Not sure its actually that big of a deal really, conditions are so good that its not going to really matter IMO what the ITCZ does, as long as it doesn't stay way south.

I think what your seeing is simply the fact that we had such a huge -ve AO spell in the winter/spring and that had kept the ITCZ surpressed, both 05 and 98 wasn't nearly quite as extreme as this year has been in late winter/early spring.

[Macrocane]

you're right KWT, the position of the ITCZ may not be a big deal of the tropical waves found very good conditions, for example Ivan and Felix became tropical storms and they even became hurricanes at an unusual low latitude.

[Aquawind]

During the period from Jun1-10, 2010, there was a considerable advancement in the position of the ITF particularly over portions of the central and eastern Sahel regions. The mean western portion of the ITF was approximated at 15.9N, and has shifted closest to the climatological mean position for this time of the year. This was due to an anomalous increase in southerly winds and moisture over parts of Mali and Niger in early June. The eastern portion of the ITF experienced a significant northward shift, and currently remains ahead of the climatological mean position, particularly over central and eastern Sudan. Figure 1 reflects the current ITF position relative to its climatological mean for early June, and its previous placement during late May. Figures 2 and 3 illustrate that the western portion of the ITF is near average, with the eastern portion of the ITF being above-average in its latitudinal position for early June.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml

[Aquawind]

During the period from Jun 11-20, 2010, there were some noticable changes in the ITF relative to the previous dekad. The mean western portion of the ITF was approximated at 16.9N, and has exceeded the climatological mean position of 16.2 N during mid- June. The advancement of the western portion of the ITF was attibuted to enhanced southerly winds along the Prime Meridian that produced anomalous amounts of moisture and rainfall across Mali and Niger, extending as far north as southern Algeria during the last week. Meanwhile, the eastern portion of the ITF experienced a slight withdraw compared to its previous dekadal position in early June. The eastern portion of the ITF was approximated 14.2N, but still remains above the climatological mean for mid-June. Figure 1 reflects the current ITF position relative to the positions of climatology and the previous dekad. Figures 2 and 3 are time series of latitudinal positions of the western and eastern portions of the ITF, respectively.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... itcz.shtml