91L looks like it is dying

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:38 am

Looks to me horrible the very poor organization of it as it has a broad circulation with many mini vortexes but (NOT A 1 TRUE CENTER) and that is why the models didn't iniciate at 12:00z.So unless it get's it's act together soon it will be only a rain event for florida.

I haved seen in other boards that some people said evacuations,trees down,I have to get panels ready etc,etc. :roll:

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:41 am

I agree... Toast!!

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:43 am

Would you like white... rye or wheat?? :lol:

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:55 am

I noted last night on last light visible loops that it appeared to have multiple centers (and even put that on the 5:30 pm EDT Storm2k Tropical Weather Outlook).

It still does. It looks like we still have multiple LLS embedded withing a larger broad scale circulation.

SF

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:57 am

Yes SF that continues and if that holds NADA then until it gets into the GOM if it does so where it may have better conditions.

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:02 am

Well, I just told over 200 customers that it's looking more likely that the Gulf of Mexico may be threatened by a TS by Thursday.

Don't expect this type of system to develop very quickly. Don't be concerned that there is no organized convection. If such a system makes it into the Gulf of Mexico as forecast then the situation could change VERY quickly. I'd say there's probably a 30-40% chance of TS development in the Gulf on Thu/Fri. This system is looking more threatening with time, not less so.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:08 am

wxman57 has a point here. Remember what the environment around 91L is - still cyclonic - it takes some time for that environment to improve, and until it does, consolidation and development if any, is very slow to occur. Once the transition takes place, it can be like a snowball effect ... what starts out slow can develop very rapidly once the right conditions are in place.

SF

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:10 am

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:10 am

Agree wxman57 that the GOM presents better conditions for it to develop but I was more thinking of what is happening right now with it and about the floridians that may have a relief in terms of a big system windwise TS or cane type moving in their direction but I think that they dont want more rain there.As I said in my post above yesterday some people in other boards said trees going to be down,Panels ready,Evacuations going to be ordered etc etc.

mf_dolphin · #10 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:14 am

WHile it's not a pretty system right now it's not dead either :-)

Looks like convection is building to the north and it's headed for much warmer water temps. I agree it's not going to be a big deal for Florida in all likelyhood but it does bear watching :-)

Scott_inVA · #11 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:45 am

cycloneye wrote:Looks to me horrible the very poor organization of it as it has a broad circulation with many mini vortexes but (NOT A 1 TRUE CENTER) and that is why the models didn't iniciate at 12:00z.So unless it get's it's act together soon it will be only a rain event for florida.

I haved seen in other boards that some people said evacuations,trees down,I have to get panels ready etc,etc.

I'd stay away from the toaster right now, fellas :wink:

SMM/I clearly showed a LP at the SFC. Models are basing track/intesity on ULL backing away which IMO is reasonable.

There is no bombing out with this in the next day b/c it can't with the UL. But, if one goes with Ridge building as PROGGED, development is certaily possible.

Scott

91L looks like it is dying

91L looks like it is dying

91L

Re: 91L looks like it is dying

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