91 Model Map updated 8AM EDT

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Scott_inVA
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91 Model Map updated 8AM EDT

#1 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Aug 11, 2003 7:15 am

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

GFS remains wishy-washy on the Invest but still is honking development in western GOM in next 36 hrs. Don't have time to check all the maps on that but it has been consistent (and the outlier) on that potential.

Scott
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#2 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 7:17 am

Seems as if the models shift a lil further S each run... Maybe it will go s. of FL all toghether
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2003 7:25 am

Wow they are spread out from north Florida to south of cuba but until there is a true center organized those models will continue to spread in different directions.
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#4 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:05 am

Now the Floridians can see how it feels to have the models all over the place and know what us GOM'ers went through earlier this year.

Patricia
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#5 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:12 am

cycloneye wrote:Wow they are spread out from north Florida to south of cuba but until there is a true center organized those models will continue to spread in different directions.


I've been watching the Eta to see what it is painting upstream CONUS.

While not the Mother of all Ridges, 1028mb High builds with "91" scooting through the FL straights. Looks like a 5H trof comes through Mid-Atlantic on Friday but "91" should be well south of that.

We'll see.

Scott
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#6 Postby DROliver » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:14 am

ticka1 wrote:Now the Floridians can see how it feels to have the models all over the place and know what us GOM'ers went through earlier this year.

Patricia


LOL!

Looks like this one could by pass Florida to the south and make a bee-line towards Texas! :o

The models are trending south and the pattern setup is favoring a Tex/La event in a few days.

We don't need anymore rain here,I heard Texas needs some! :o

Steve
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#7 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:23 am

Yeah these usually miss Florida. The only concern I have here is that the Trough may nudge it a bit NW before it pulls out, then have it on a WSW heading after that. It continues some organization this morning. Cheers!!
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#8 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:25 am

Convection still Very minimal
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#9 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:43 am

It isn't so much the models have trended south. Its that they initialized the system further South in the last run:):)

00Z intial 25.5

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 60.1W 25.6N 63.1W 26.2N 65.9W 26.9N 68.7W
BAMM 25.5N 60.1W 25.4N 63.5W 25.6N 66.5W 26.0N 69.3W
A98E 25.5N 60.1W 25.2N 62.9W 25.2N 65.5W 25.6N 68.0W
LBAR 25.5N 60.1W 25.5N 63.1W 25.9N 66.1W 26.4N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

and todays 006Z run its in intialized at 21.2

BAMD 21.2N 61.5W 21.5N 63.1W 22.5N 65.1W 23.7N 67.6W
BAMM 21.2N 61.5W 21.4N 63.4W 22.1N 65.3W 23.2N 67.6W
A98E 21.2N 61.5W 20.2N 64.5W 19.9N 67.2W 20.1N 69.9W
LBAR 21.2N 61.5W 20.7N 63.9W 20.7N 66.4W 20.8N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
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#10 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:46 am

I read in the NWS discussion yesterday a tropical wave would approach from the east..guesss this will be it :lol: :lol: :wink:
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#11 Postby bfez1 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:49 am

This one has Texas written all over it.
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#12 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:52 am

Looks like 21.2 is too far south from the IR. I know it's tough to guess a center from IR but It'll be interesting to see the visibles and see where the circulation really is.
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#13 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:53 am

Judging from the brown toast that used to be my lawn ... yes, Texas, or at least south central Texas, needs the rain.

We can do without the high winds, tornadoes, flash flooding, etc.

Most of the forecast discussions I've read from the NWS mets here in Texas indicate they are closely watching the system east of the Bahamas.
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#14 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:16 am

I AM WATCHING IT. BUT THE WHOLE GOM NEEDS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE. WHERE IT GOES WILL BE LIKE CLAUDETTE - we won't know until it MAKES LANDFALL.
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#15 Postby slosh » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:18 am

If the track of 91 takes it across Florida, What is the expected intensity at landfall? Will it get to Td or TS strength?
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#16 Postby bfez1 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:19 am

A round and a round and a round she goes, where she stops, know body knows!!! :)

Sorry, I couldn't help myself---lol
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#17 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:14 am

ameriwx2003 wrote:It isn't so much the models have trended south. Its that they initialized the system further South in the last run:):)

00Z intial 25.5

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 60.1W 25.6N 63.1W 26.2N 65.9W 26.9N 68.7W
BAMM 25.5N 60.1W 25.4N 63.5W 25.6N 66.5W 26.0N 69.3W
A98E 25.5N 60.1W 25.2N 62.9W 25.2N 65.5W 25.6N 68.0W
LBAR 25.5N 60.1W 25.5N 63.1W 25.9N 66.1W 26.4N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

and todays 006Z run its in intialized at 21.2

BAMD 21.2N 61.5W 21.5N 63.1W 22.5N 65.1W 23.7N 67.6W
BAMM 21.2N 61.5W 21.4N 63.4W 22.1N 65.3W 23.2N 67.6W
A98E 21.2N 61.5W 20.2N 64.5W 19.9N 67.2W 20.1N 69.9W
LBAR 21.2N 61.5W 20.7N 63.9W 20.7N 66.4W 20.8N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS


Interesting, it picked up on the second swirl SE of the ULL and initialized it. Something I noted last night (on visible imagery before sundown) and the so did the 12z UKMET ...

SF
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#18 Postby grentz7721 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:54 am

Most of the models are saying it's going to cross Florida and into the GOM.
:roll: It still has chances to go North after it hits Florida IMO.
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#19 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 3:11 pm

George, you think the ridge that is expected to build, is expected to
weaken before what is now 91L gets further west as say 75ºW?
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#20 Postby southerngale » Mon Aug 11, 2003 3:32 pm

bfez1 wrote:A round and a round and a round she goes, where she stops, know body knows!!! :)

Sorry, I couldn't help myself---lol


lol Bonnie! I say that often.....right before the bite goes into the little one's mouth :wink:
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