ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[shah8]

Again, I have to disagree with the placement. It looks like it's jogging NW now (and freaking getting stronger again on land).

Judged by 430z mateo-7 visual.

Edited to say that I'm wrong about the placement. Storm has pretty much gone straight north, and the NE eyewall is on Sur. A few hours and all of the eye will be over water again, in remarkably good shape.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘PHET’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY TWO ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 04 JUNE 2010 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 04 JUNE 2010.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, 4TH JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 21.50N AND LONG. 59.50E VERY CLOSE TO OMAN COAST, ABOUT 170 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUR (OMAN) AND 150 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND (OMAN) AND 1050 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NALIYA (KUTCH, GUJARAT), 950 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (PAKISTAN), LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS NOW CROSSING OMAN COAST NEAR LAT . 21.50N.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 65 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 978 HPA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SUR(OMAN) REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 30 KNOTS WITH MSLP OF 995.3 AND MAXIMUM 24 HRS PRESSURE FALL OF 9.1 HPA AT 0000 UTC OF 04 JUNE, 2010.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T4.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN/SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 17.50N TO 24.50N AND WEST OF LONG. 62.50E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -750 C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 21.50 N OVER THE REGION.

AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR SOME TIME WHILE WEAKENING GRADUALLY, THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS PAKISTAN COAST.

GALE WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 110-130 KMPH GUSTING TO 140 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE WIND SPEED REACHING 100-120 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF MAKRAN COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL ALONG AND OFF THIS COAST.

STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FOR OMAN COAST: STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 2 METRES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WOULD OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF LANDFALL POINT.

[salmon123]

ARB 0/2010/29 Dated: 04.06.2010

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST



Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ crossed Oman coast.



The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved further northwards, crossed Oman coast near lat. 21.50N between 0530 and 0730 hours IST. It weakened into a severe cyclonic storm and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, 4th June 2010 over coastal Oman near lat. 22.00N and long. 59.50E, about 50 km south of Sur (Oman), 950 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 850 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan),



Available observations and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models guidance suggest that the system would move northward for some more time, then recurve northeastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea and move northeastwards towards Pakistan coast.



Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:


Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

04-06-2010/0830
22.0/59.5
100-110 gusting to 120

04-06-2010/1130
22.0/59.5
100-110 gusting to 120

04-06-2010/1730
22.5/59.5
100-110 gusting to 120

04-06-2010/2330
23.0/60.0
100-110 gusting to 120

05-06-2010/0530
23.5/60.5
100-110 gusting to 120

05-06-2010/1730
24.0/62.0
90-100 gusting to 110

06-06-.2010/0530
24.5/64.0
80-90 gusting to 100

06-06-.2010/1730
25.0/66.0
80-90 gusting to 100

07-06-.2010/0530
25.5/68.5
70-80 gusting to 90






Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.



Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, 04th June 2010.

[shah8]

Been trawling omani forums...

Early reports state that Sur area having serious damage...

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=1 ... ref=search

for those of you wanting to keep up with local reaction.

[Chacor]

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS AND CROSSED OMAN COAST NEAR LAT. 21.50N BETWEEN 0000 UTC AND 0200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH JUNE. IT WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH JUNE OVER COASTAL OMAN NEAR LAT. 22.00N AND LONG. 59.50E , ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH OF SUR, OMAN(41268) AND 950 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NALIYA (42631), 850 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 60 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 984 HPA.

SURFACE OBSERVATION OF RAS AL HADD, OMAN (41270) REPORTED SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 37 KNOTS WITH MSLP OF 991.5 AND MAXIMUM 24 HRS PRESSURE FALL OF 13.8 hPa AT 0300 UTC.

SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOWS BROKEN/SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 18.50N TO 24.50N AND WEST OF LONG. 62.50E AND OVER EASTERN OMAN. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -750 C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS). THE WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 21.50 N OVER THE REGION.

AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND EMERGE INTO NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS PAKISTAN COAST.

GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 100-110 KMPH GUSTING TO 120 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WIND SPEED REACHING 100-110 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF MAKRAN COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL ALONG AND OFF THIS COAST.

[hartg]

Hi, I've just joined. I'm in Muscat, Oman. It's been raining on and off since 7 this morning. Some wind on and off, as we await to see what happens and whether it's going to be anywhere as nasty as Gonu in 2007.

[KWT]

Looking pretty impressive given its been overland for a while, the structure looks great. When it recurves back ENE I'd be worried thaqt it strengthens somewhat once it sorts itself out in terms of getting re-adjusted to the waters again.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Visible:
http://www.sat24.com/sa

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.9N 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.2N 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.5N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.2N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.7N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A
HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF
NORTHERN OMAN AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 040424Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND FROM
NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IRAN. BY TAU 12, TC 03A SHOULD MAKE IT BACK
OVER WATER INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI, PAKISTAN
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INLAND BY TAU 72. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS INITIALLY TO THE EAST OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE BRIEF
TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY, AS
MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASING VWS. THERE IS
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE TC PHET WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH AS IT BREAKS FREE FROM THE TUG OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. IN
THIS CASE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO
DISSIPATION AND/OR A SUCCEEDING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SINAI PENINSULA, COMES ALONG TO PULL IT NORTHEAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Classic dry and stable air signature there Hurakan, got a great looking sturcture but convection is very much on the weak side.

[HURAKAN]

Impact of Phet

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.4N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.6N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.0N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.8N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.3N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TC 03A
HAS EXITED BACK INTO WATER IN THE GULF OF OMAN WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING INTACT AFTER CROSSING THE EASTERN TIP OF THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WITH ELONGATION
OCCURRING ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
A 041130Z 1-KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.O FROM PGTW. TC
PHET HAS COMMENCED A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AFTER ROUNDING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. IT IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES, THEN MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INLAND BY TAU 72. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see whether the northern eyewall can redevelop over the hot waters or whether the air coming from the desert in the north will prevent that.

[shunshu]

Hi Shunshu,
In light of your very smart observations, I thought you might like this research paper I wrote about GONU back in 2007:

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/GONU%20&%20THE%202007%20ONSET%20VORTEX/PROJECT%20-%20GONU%20AND%20THE%202007%20ONSET%20VORTEX.htm

It proves your point.

Thanks that made a very interesting read. If Phet had recurved earlier towards India, the subcontinent would have received some rains and probably helped the monsoon. Although I do see that monsoon clouds are back around the southern tip of India

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the storm did quite well over Oman, probably almost maintained hurricane-equivalent strength. I'd guess the current intensity to be 60 kt.

[KWT]

Its sturcture did well over Oman Crazy, though the convection is somewhat shallow now. I'll be very interested to see whether it has enough time and resources to mix out again before it makes landfall again in say 24-36hrs time.

[shah8]

Looks like shear is nailing this sucker's grave right now...

[Chacor]

TROPICAL STORM ‘PHET’ ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SEVEN ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 04 JUNE 2010 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 04 JUNE 2010.



THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “PHET” OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONERY AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC 0F 4 JUNE NEAR LAT. 23.00N AND LONG. 59.50E, ABOUT 50 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUR (41268), 950 KM WEST OF NALIYA (42631) AND 800 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (41780).



SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 986 HPA.



SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOWS BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 21.00N AND WEST OF LONG.64.00E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS -650 C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS). THE WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 21.00 N OVER THE REGION.



AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS PAKISTAN COAST.



GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 100-110 KMPH GUSTING TO 120 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. GALE FORCE WIND SPEED REACHING 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF MAKRAN COAST DURING NEXT 24 HRS. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH ALONG AND OFF THIS COAST.