ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[shah8]

Yeah, I got some doubts about weakening. Also, at the end of the day, it was *always* gonna be about the rain that will do the destructive work +maybe storm surges on the ports on that eastern coast if it hits at the right angle.

Those very high cloudtops promise true torrents like Morakot.

Edited to remark that the omanis have apparently slashdoted some links...

[CrazyC83]

Trying to form a second center in that powerful convection to the south?

[shah8]

No, it's still intensifying, energywise, but what's going on is that it's pulling up *vast* amounts of water. I didn't just namedrop Morakot for no reason.

No developed storm will form a new center--think about it, cyclones are practically ontologically opposed to forming new centers.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather's track

[ozonepete]

Hey guys,
I'm having trouble with photobucket so I can't post images yet, but here's a few points:

GFS definitely had it right up to now - it's been going much more NW than the other models like ECMWF had.

It sure looks like it's weakening now. As a lot of you said, it just has to be ingesting dry air from the west into its middle levels, where it hurts the most.

In the last few frames it looks like it's either stalling or moving southwest. I think that mid-level/upper trough is coming in rapidly now and exerting its influence. Maybe PHET will even loop.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 18:26:45 N Lon : 59:39:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 927.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.3 4.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[salmon123]

where is IMD update ?

[Grifforzer]

Their website is overloaded with traffic and is currently unavailable.

FKIN20 VIDP 021630
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100602/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: PHET
NR: 6
PSN: N1800 E06030
MOV: NW 6 KT
C: 970 HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN+6HR: 02/1800Z N1830 E06000
FCST MAX WIND+6HR: 85 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/0000Z N1900 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 90 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 02/0600Z N1930 E05900
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 95 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/1200Z N2000 E05900
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 100 KT

NEXT MSG: 20100602/1800Z

---

This is all we have now from the India Meteorological Department for now until their website works again.

[brunota2003]

Hmm...The weakening flag is on, AND it is flagged for rapid dissipation. Not good signs for Phet. Perhaps it is beginning quite an impressive collapse? One could hope...

[ozonepete]

Their website is overloaded with traffic and is currently unavailable.

Yes, that's gotta be what it is. They must be getting bombarded with traffic and are still not equipped to handle this. It's a shame.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Remember what quite a few Hurricanes do when they come close to the Gulf Coast, something similar will happen this time with Phet.

I think the dry air from Oman was always going to be a big issue for Phet, I think the western side really is being destroyed by that stable dry air coming off land, however the inflow is still superb and the system is dragging in some very unstable air with it developing a big convective tail.

[HURAKAN]

Latest computer models

[bob rulz]

The overland route over Oman at the very least is good news for Pakistan.

Of course, good news for one area is bad news for another.

[KWT]

Yep, even if this weakens quite rapidly your still going to see a fairly strong system make landfall in an area that isn't used to it really.

[HURAKAN]

A nice pic of Phet at its best

[CrazyC83]

Certainly peaked at 1200Z - probably around 120 kt - then rapidly weakened. I'd say about 85 kt right now as it has weakened faster than Dvorak constraints allow (the Raw T# of 4.8 translates to about 85 kt though). I believe Gonu was 80 kt when it hit Oman.

[P.K.]

FKIN20 VIDP 022030
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20100602/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: PHET
NR: 7
PSN: N1830 E06000
MOV: NW 6 KT
C: 970 HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN+6HR: 02/0000Z N1900 E05930
FCST MAX WIND+6HR: 85 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/0600Z N1930 E05900
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 90 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 03/1200Z N2000 E05900
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 95 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/1800Z N2030 E05900
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 100 KT
NEXT MSG: 20100603/0000Z

[HURAKAN]

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