EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[Hurricane Andrew]

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Remenents of AGATHA are now moving into the carribean. A ball of deep convection has developed off the coast of Belize. If a surface low develops there, it has a chance of developing.

The system is over 83-87 degree water. tempeture of this range will help the storm to develop.

Based on the info above, this is my forcast.

0 Hours-X
6 Hours-X
12 Hours-X
24 Hours-X
48 Hours-TD-35MPH,nearing cuba
72 Hours-TS-45MPH,over cuba
96 Hours-TS-55MPH,over florida
120 Hours-TS-40MP,over the gulf stream

[ROCK]

It has an impressive look to it after being ripped up over CA this am. LLC might be intact however weak. Still its over the hottest part of the WCARIB right now....I would watch this through out today Florida. You might just have a weak TS knocking at your door tomorrow.

[AdamFirst]

Can these remnants still be traced back to Agatha? Usually if a storms existing remnants regenerate the storm will get its old name back...and now that there is the name crossover rule, do you think we will see it back to agatha if it does regenerate, or do you see the nhc just giving it the atlantic A name?

[Macrocane]

If it gets named the most likely name will be Alex because Agatha is officially dissipated though I'm not sure if it is the old circulation of Agatha or anew one, in case that it is the old one maybe they will rename it Agatha.

This is the accumulated rainfall between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today in El Salvador:

[ROCK]

Its the remants of AG....but you can tell its not vertically stack. Looks like the blob is a MLC with the weak LLC lagging behind....maybe I new low forms under the MLC....we shall see...

[djones65]

In 2004 the NHC renamed Ivan when a remnant vortmax from Ivan could be tracked across the Eastern US then down the Atlantic seaboard back into the Bahamas. I disagreed with that decision but I don't see the difference between the two scenarios. If, and a huge If this weak low off Belize develops further it should be given the name Agatha. There was a pre-existing trough that Agatha formed from and basically its remnant vorticity has tracked northeastward along it. The low/mid level spin off Belize does not appear to be a "new" entity from a new disturbance it seems to easily be tracked northeastward through Guatemala into Belize after Agatha's surface circulation dissipated. So, if this were to strengthen into a tropical storm I would vote it be given the name Agatha. However, with all that being said I personally do not believe this system will develop any further.

[KWT]

Yeah in theory but then thats the same thing really that occured with Alma/Arthur, slightly different angles but pretty much the same idea.

Can't totally rule it out but its heading towards conditions that aren't really all that conudsive slowly but surely, probably has a 24-48hrs window, which could be just enough. I'd still say no more then 10% chance for now.

[I-wall]

I'm curious why the NHC has not mentioned this storm? They have an atlantic floater dedicated to "agatha" but the home page says nothing about the possibility of a developing storm. I would think they would at least mention it considering how it looks right now. What do you guys think?

[Macrocane]

I am surpised too, they not even mentioned that it is related to Agatha's remains.

[Macrocane]

Here you can see some pictures of the floodings in the east part of El Salvador, clic on one of the numbers below the picture and wait for it to load:

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/component/ignitegallery/view/2848.html

[cycloneye]

131 dead in Central America

My prayers go to those victims familys.

[ROCK]

no invest...nada from the NHC...boogles my mind sometimes....

[RL3AO]

no invest...nada from the NHC...boogles my mind sometimes....

Why should there be an invest? Its a thunderstorm with absolutely no sign of a LLC and heading into increasing shear.

[I-wall]

no invest...nada from the NHC...boogles my mind sometimes....

Why should there be an invest? Its a thunderstorm with absolutely no sign of a LLC and heading into increasing shear.

We aren't saying it should be a named storm; just that maybe there should be an invest. It seems to have some rotation, so there has to be a low associated with the thunderstorms. I guess this is the typical invest vs. no invest discussion

[NEXRAD]

The convection across the NW Caribbean/east of the Yucatan definitely has some sort of a circulation. Whether it has much of a surface reflection is a bigger question. The circulation is also quite weak as evidenced by surface obs. Over the past few hours there's been some sort of an outflow boundary (maybe combined with a sea breeze?) surging west out of the convection over the Ern Yucatan. There also seems to be some sort of a boundary situated SE of the convection. If these are in fact outflows, then the activity is definitely not well organized from a tropical systems perspective.

Whatever is going on offshore Mexico/Belize, it doesn't have long to persist. Southeasterly low level steering winds will push whatever surface or near surface circulation we're seeing onshore the Yucatan tonight. The GFS has been on this with all of its last several runs and shows (a realistic) dissipation of this feature over land. The moisture and convective activity will be pulled northeast towards Florida thanks to the mid/upper troughing moving through the Gulf of Mexico. With the persistent sheer over the Gulf and Florida, I really don't see this system as developing. It will, though, enhance Florida's shower & t'storm activity this week.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

Officially it has been deactivated.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep012010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005312054
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[KWT]

Can't really add anymore then what Jay has just done, the low is sitting there whilst the convection is streaming off towards W.Cuba and Florida whilst the LLC itself (well the LL turning anyway) gets slowly pushed towards land again.

[tolakram]

This is the scariest thing I've ever seen.


The office of Guatemala's president handed out this aerial view of a crater that opened up after Agatha hit.

I hope that's fake but CNN claims it's real.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/ ... tml?hpt=T1

[JonathanBelles]

That thing looks photoshopped. Its too perfect!

[Andrew92]

How deep is that thing? And I knew about this sinkhole yesterday but while very damaging I didn't think it quite looked that dramatic.

-Andrew92