EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

12z Best Track

Tropical Storm Agatha at 8 AM PDT.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

EP, 01, 2010052912, , BEST, 0, 130N, 934W, 35, 1004, TS

Doesn't surprise me that this is going to be upgraded shortly, I've suspected that this was probably at 35-40kts alrwady a few hours ago and I'll stick to that, that convection probably has 40kts in there right now in places I reckon...

The NHC forecast of 50kts looks good if it can stay out to sea long enough.

[Hurricane Andrew]

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My new forcast based on the info i have reseaved.(warm sea temps...proximity to land...ETC)

0 Hours-TD-35MPH
6 Hours-TS-45MPH
12 Hours-TS-50MPH
24 Hours-TS-65MPH
48 Hours-TS-50MPH, inland
72 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
96 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
120 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland...dissipating

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 291431
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM...WSW OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. AGATHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[cwachal]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291431
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
1500 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 93.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 93.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 93.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.4N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.8N 91.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.3N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.6N 91.1W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 91.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 93.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[Hurricane Andrew]

Holy katrina!

Tis is some storm!

[KWT]

Well that was certainly a quick upgrade from an invest to a TS in less then 6hrs, of course I think it was a TD a little bit before it was upgraded and as Stewart said it may well have been a TS earlier as well.

Sort of a race against time for this system now, its got good SST's to work with and conditions look decent so will be interesting to see how high it can go.

Main weather will be to the east of the system, not an awful lot of weater on the western side.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Oh man.

I told you it would pull a charley!

And NHC as the center wrong to.

[cycloneye]

Well that was certainly a quick upgrade from an invest to a TS in less then 6hrs, of course I think it was a TD a little bit before it was upgraded and as Stewart said it may well have been a TS earlier as well.

Sort of a race against time for this system now, its got good SST's to work with and conditions look decent so will be interesting to see how high it can go.

Main weather will be to the east of the system, not an awful lot of weater on the western side.

Maybe,they may make changes at the post season report.

[cycloneye]

Oh man.

I told you it would pull a charley!

And NHC as the center wrong to.

What are you talking about?

[KWT]

Oh man.

I told you it would pull a charley!

And NHC as the center wrong to.

Hardly a Charley, this system isn't even in the same league as that one. The track seems logical and one the models have been expecting for a while, though few took it far enough west in the first place, even the GFDL which did do well with the idea of taking it westwards when all others recurved it right away, wasn't nearly far enough west.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricane Andrew]

Oh man.

I told you it would pull a charley!

And NHC as the center wrong to.

What are you talking about?

I mean it is strengthening rapidly right off shore.

Come to think of it...Thats more like pulling an Arthur than a Charley.

[HURAKAN]

Track

[srainhoutx]

Oh man.

I told you it would pull a charley!

And NHC as the center wrong to.

Easy there. I would be cautious making statements regarding the NHC and their ability to locate a center. After all we are talking about folks that are the specialist in Hurricane forecasting.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 291459
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THAT...COMBINED WITH 35-KT WIND VECTORS
NOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS...IS THE BASIS ON WHICH THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND ALSO
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. AGATHA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
BROAD LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HWRF...IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE SHARP EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE
LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL...A SCENARIO WHICH
HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

SINCE AGATHA WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST
30C AND WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING A
NEAR 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED FOR THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OFTENTIMES WEAKENS.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...AND AS FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.1N 93.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 13.4N 92.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 13.8N 91.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 14.3N 91.2W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z 14.6N 91.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 91.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh man.

I told you it would pull a charley!

And NHC as the center wrong to.

What are you talking about?

I mean it is strengthening rapidly right off shore.

Come to think of it...Thats more like pulling an Arthur than a Charley.

Not exactly RI. Rapidly intensifying is generally considered when a storm (more like a Hurricane) is strengthening something over 30 MPH in speed in a day, or something around that. This system is not organized enough, and too close to land to rapidly intensify. It will strengthen moderately, but lets not say "rapidly", there is a difference.

[brunota2003]

I am actually surprised there is no recon scheduled for this storm that I can tell? Seems there has been ample time for the 24 hour window, and it is a threat to land (with a chance it could rapidly strengthen)

[gatorcane]

Well it would appear it had enough time over water to get named. Earlier this week, was thinking it would not have enough time giving it a 50% shot of getting named. Should have known better given extremely warm SSTs and near NIL shear over the system.

Nice outflow over the system, the only thing that may keep it from going to hurricane status is the fact it won't be over water long enough it looks like. But reading the latest discussion they indicate possible rapid strengthening, so just maybe can make it to hurricane status.

[cycloneye]

Well it would appear it had enough time over water to get named. Earlier this week, was thinking it would not have enough time giving it a 50% shot of getting named. Nice outflow over the system, the only thing really keeping it from going to hurricane status is the fact it won't be over water long enough it looks like.

Agreed. If this would be further away from land with those bombing sst's there,it would go thru rapid intensification to hurricane status.