Is New York due for a Hurricane?

[Category 5]

No such thing as being "due"

[Kingarabian]

But it surely is interesting.

For a New York or any upper East coast states to be affected by a Hurricane, are specific conditions needed in that season.

[wxman57]

those surge maps likely are way off

In 1893, the last direct NYC hit, Hog Island was obliterated. No trace of the island was found for 100 years.

That was a cat 1 hurricane

The big problem with those kind of surge maps is that they attribute a storm surge height with the hurricane's Saffir-Simpson category. A hurricane's Saffir-Simpson rating (its peak wind speed that may occur in only a small area) plays only a very small part in storm surge generation. What's more important is the size of the hurricane wind field. A large Cat 1 or Cat 2 can easily produce a surge equal to what that map shows for a Cat 4. Many learned that lesson in 2008 when Ike struck the upper TX coast as "only a Cat 2".

[jasons2k]

those surge maps likely are way off

In 1893, the last direct NYC hit, Hog Island was obliterated. No trace of the island was found for 100 years.

That was a cat 1 hurricane

I dunno about that.

Yes, true, there are a lot of lowlands/marshes around JFK and Long Island that will flood, along with the perimeter of Staten Island, Manhattan, etc.

But NYC isn't like other coastal cities that are a flat expanse for miles inland. It's right on the fall line so the elevation rises quickly. Points of Staten Island are several hundred feet above sea level, for example.

Localized surge will be devastating, no doubt. But there won't be this massive flow of water across the whole city.

Long Island is another story though. If that map went as far east as Hog Island I'm sure it would be shown in the Cat 1 surge zone.

[Patrick99]

They don't seem to ever be moving in the right direction, for NYC to be really hit by a big one.....seems more likely for Cape Cod/coastal Mass. to get nailed.

[Trader Ron]

NYC was NOT hit by the 1938 hurricane

the last NYC hurricane was 1893

The last LI hurricane was 1985

The 1938 hurricane, which made landfall in Suffolk County, produced winds in Manhattan to 75 mph. The East River flowed inland 3 blocks. The entire city lost power.

Hurricane Gloria in 1985 made landfall also in Suffolk county......Long Beach.....which is about 14 nautical miles from the NYC line. Battery Park had a storm surge (lower Manhattan) of more than 8 feet.

Gloria hit at dead low tide, which saved Fire Island from being overwashed.

History is to picky about where the lines are drawn.

[Trader Ron]

Interesting tidbit about the '38 hurricane. A fellow bought a barometer and it was falling so fast, he brought it back, thinking it was broken.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Interesting tidbit about the '38 hurricane. A fellow bought a barometer and it was falling so fast, he brought it back, thinking it was broken.

And he came back to find his house destroyed! i read 'bout 'dat.

[Category 5]

They don't seem to ever be moving in the right direction, for NYC to be really hit by a big one.....seems more likely for Cape Cod/coastal Mass. to get nailed.

Well, a track into that area requires an unusual set of circumstances, a very, very unusual set.

[Iune]

They don't seem to ever be moving in the right direction, for NYC to be really hit by a big one.....seems more likely for Cape Cod/coastal Mass. to get nailed.

No offense for the people of Cape Cod/Massachusetts, but is that not a good thing that they miss NYC?

[CrazyC83]

Those categories are misleading too. A hurricane hitting NYC is likely to be large and either steady or weakening, and also becoming extratropical to some degree. Those all increase storm surge far beyond what the intensity would naturally suggest.

[Steve H.]

No! They will have a 1978 type blizzard the first week in February 2014 Feel free to delete.

[StormingB81]

No! They will have a 1978 type blizzard the first week in February 2014 Feel free to delete.

Is this for the Superbow in New Jersey? lol

[StormingB81]

Anyways I remember Gloriia. We lived in CT at the time..had like no power or water for like 5 days.

[HurricaneBelle]

My first ever hurricane was 1976's Belle (hence the name), and out in Eastern Long Island (Coram to be specific) we were without power for 3-4 days, even though Belle may have really been a high-end tropical storm when it made landfall on Long Island.

[Steve H.]

I remember Belle. Knocked out power in Oyster Bay for a couple of days. Probably had winds of 65 - 70 mph at the peak. Nice slow moving tropical cyclone for the NE. Even given some recognition on the TV show Night Court (though they didn't mention her name).

[AdamFirst]

You must remember, NYC doesn't have Dade County-strength building codes. I believe if a high-end category 2 hits Brooklyn, Staten Island....there could be irreversible damage to all kinds of infrastructure. They're not exactly maintaining the roads, bridges, railroads or the power grid up there with any sort of "contemporary" urgency.

[bob rulz]

Don't forget that any hurricane that would hit New York City would likely be moving fairly fast, in addition to having a large wind field, which would drive the storm surge yet higher through the narrow rivers and bays.

New York is so densely populated that there really is no place in the city in which a high storm surge wouldn't cause significant damage. It wouldn't be a Katrina-like scenario where the entire city is flooded and the water doesn't drain out, but it would still likely be fairly devastating.

Of course, a direct strike on New York City, especially by a hurricane stronger than say category 2, would require some very unlikely set of meteorological circumstances...but unlikely doesn't mean impossible!

[somethingfunny]

To me the nightmare scenario is just Isabel with a slightly sharper tweak to her recurve.

[HurricaneBelle]

To me the nightmare scenario is just Isabel with a slightly sharper tweak to her recurve.

Yes, the key would be for the storm to approaching from the SE moving NW or NNW rather than the typical NE fade most storms take at that latitude.