EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Looks like an upgrade very soon.

EP, 90, 2010052818, , BEST, 0, 128N, 945W, 30, 1005 , LO

Where is the link to the BT?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Iune]

18z Best Track

Looks like an upgrade very soon.

EP, 90, 2010052818, , BEST, 0, 128N, 945W, 30, 1005 , LO

Where is the link to the BT?

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Thanks

[I-wall]

Does anyone know when or if we will get any quickscat images or microwave images of this system?

[tolakram]

Quikscat died last year, it is no more.

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone know when or if we will get any quickscat images or microwave images of this system?

QuickSCAT failed several months ago.

[I-wall]

Does anyone know when or if we will get any quickscat images or microwave images of this system?

QuickSCAT failed several months ago.

How much does that affect the NHC's ability to determine if a system is organized enough to be classified as a depression? How else can you tell if a system has a closed circulation if the center is covered by clouds?

[theavocado]

Does anyone know when or if we will get any quickscat images or microwave images of this system?

QuickSCAT failed several months ago.

How much does that affect the NHC's ability to determine if a system is organized enough to be classified as a depression? How else can you tell if a system has a closed circulation if the center is covered by clouds?

There are still three other scatterometers flying, ASCAT, WindSat and the partially mission capable ERS-2. All three can provide the same data, but with considerably smaller swaths.

Also, to answer the earlier question, there is plenty of microwave available at the FNMOC and NRL TC Pages.

[tolakram]

For example:

[cycloneye]

TD could form at any time

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN A
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS ORGANIZED...
THERE ARE NO EVIDENCES OF A WELL DEFINED CENTER AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA AND THE AREA
OF HEAVY RAINS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS EL SALVADOR. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[KWT]

Looks like the first tropical depression of the EPAC season is pretty close, the banding isn't bad from the looks of those images at least on the NE side...will be interesting to watch the track of this system in the next 24-36hrs as its heads towards the coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

When (not really a question of "if" anymore) 90E is upgraded, what do you think the NHC will predict? A death over land or a crossover into the Caribbean/Gulf? If they go for the latterer, the news will have a different reason to annoy us with talk about the Gulf.

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL doesn't develop the low as much as the previous run did. Pretty much loses the vortex right at the coast.

HWRF maintained its develop to tropical storm before dying at sea scenario.

NHC wouldn't forecast a crossover into the Atlantic. Even the CMC's solution is more dissipate then regenerate vice a storm holding together during the crossover. I would expect their forecast to be remnant low / dissipation within 48-72 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looking very close to depression status

Loop link - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hi everyone! I leanve to see a disorganized low, i come back to find a Low close to a TD!

[srainhoutx]

I agree HURAKAN. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade a bit later IMHO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A few notes i want to point out.

1)Notice the storm is in 83F plus water.
2)Notice its close to land
3)notice its slow speed

Conclusion:I think it might make 60MP beofre landfall then weaken rapidly to a TD.

Why?:It has very warm water to feed off of but it is close to land, very mountaines at that. It should make TS briefly, then weaken rapidly.

Forcast...based off of the Parameters
0 hours-X
6 hours-TD-35MPH
12 hours-TD=35 MPH
24 Hours-TS-40MPH
48 Hours-TS-60MPH, making landfall
72 Hours-TD-30MPH, inland
96 Hours-TD-25 MPH, inland

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't about the required personal disclaimer.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks jeremey. I always forget something. *facepalm*

It looks so organzied on SHORTWAVE!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-ir2.html

[cycloneye]

Maybe not so fast? SSD dvorak doesn't like 90E.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

28/2345 UTC 14.1N 95.9W T1.0/1.5 90E -- East Pacific

[wyq614]

00z Best Track

EP, 90, 2010052900, , BEST, 0, 130N, 942W, 30, 1005, DB