ATL : INVEST 90L

[HURAKAN]

Shear:



Upper Divergence:



Lower Convergence:

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251558
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Whilst I suppose you still can't rule out a subtropical system with this system convection is still well displaced and is going to have to get closer if we are to get this upgraded to a subtropical storm, conditioons aloft do appear better though convergence is a big issue, given there is a real lack of it right now near the center of the system.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 90, 2010052518, , BEST, 0, 308N, 725W, 40, 1005, LO

[HURAKAN]

Moving closer to the Gulf Stream, lets see what it does in the next 24 hours

[MGC]

I doubt the gulf stream can help 90L....still too much shear and dry air. Hope it stays this way all season.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

I doubt the gulf stream can help 90L....still too much shear and dry air. Hope it stays this way all season.....MGC

If you look at a loop, shear isn't a problem. The main problem is the dry air and also, the low SST values.

[KWT]

Most important problem is the lack of covergence with the system, there is some weak convergence to the NW which is helping to develop the convection there but its not really enough yet...

That being said if the convection can hold where it is right now then we may see it back upto orange in 12hrs time or so. Still doesn't look that good, though we've seen only marginally better looking systems upgraded before...but in this event I don't think its going to happen.

Looks like the models suggest it has another 48hrs in marginal conditions before the system lifts out ENE/NE.

[Cookie]

I don't think people should ever right these things off, until their is zero chance. time and time again watching hurricanes all years around things happen that are unexpected.

[HURAKAN]

Not dead, not just yet!

[HURAKAN]

The most deep it has ever been

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[JonathanBelles]

The last hour or so on satellite has been quite interesting. Rain is very near the coast now. The loop current could change things over the next 18+ hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest loop

[Patrick99]

That's gotta be some Gulfstream-enhanced convection, right there, I would think.

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 90, 2010052600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 734W, 40, 1005, LO

[HURAKAN]

comparison

[HURAKAN]

Satellite + Radar

[HURAKAN]

Today could be interesting