GOM Oil Spill - BP Stops Oil Leak

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thanks for your explanations, Dencolo: sounds like you have wide knowledge in the oil business.

Here are some of the latest BP updates (late May 14, 2010) from http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article215109.ece

Second Macondo relief well to spud Sunday

BP plans to spud a second relief well to intercept the Macondo well bore on Sunday, according to BP operations boss Doug Suttles.
Transocean’s semi-submersible rig Development Driller II is on location and has been inspected by Coast Guard officials.

The US Minerals Management Service is reviewing the drilling permit for the second well and expects to approve the request by Saturday, MMS Gulf of Mexico boss Lars Herbst said at a press conference Friday.

The Development Driller II is expected to “race” the Transocean semi-submersible rig Development Driller III, which already spud the first relief probe, to reach the Macondo well bore on Mississippi Canyon Block 252 in the US Gulf of Mexico.

Also: First relief well stalled
Flow rates questioned
Riser insertion tube
'Top hat' doffed
Top kill looks possible
Cement confusion

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Offshore Disaster in the Gulf of Mexico

"....Deepwater Horizon was finishing work on an exploration well named Macondo, in an area called Mississippi Canyon Block 252. After weeks of drilling, the rig had pushed a bit down over 18,000 feet, into an oil-bearing zone. The Transocean and BP personnel were installing casing in the well. BP was going to seal things up, and then go off and figure out how to produce the oil -- another step entirely in the oil biz.

The Macondo Block 252 reservoir may hold as much as 100 million barrels. That's not as large as other recent oil strikes in the Gulf, but BP management was still pleased. Success is success -- certainly in the risky, deep-water oil environment. The front office of BP Exploration was preparing a press release to announce a "commercial" oil discovery."...

"According to the Coast Guard and BP, oil is leaking from two spots along what is left of the riser system. Here's a schematic view:"



http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=49272&pt=msg&mid=8929606

[Sanibel]

I think BP said this well is capable of 60,000 barrels a day unrestricted flow. Some of the techy guys on The Oil Drum said the Purdue professor didn't take into account some highly technical flow characteristics and factors they are aware of so his estimates aren't valid. So I'd split the difference and say 25,000 barrels might be reasonable. However don't forget the reason this well blew-out was because it had unusually high pressure.

The Oil Drum posted a highly technical government survey done on Gulf Of Mexico oil well blowouts. Apparently at 1500 meters deep the natural gas immediately freezes into hydrate ice which has a heavier density than oil and separates away from it. The oil isn't thrust to the surface by the usual gas plume but instead stays sub-surface and drifts far from the well underwater. And sure enough that is exactly what the slick is doing. It is mostly at 3000 feet and drifting in a narrow slick as predicted. This should create more of an ocean spill than seashore spill for now.

This could have been prevented if the Blowout Preventer Stack had a bypass where a pipe could be connected from the surface and a special drill could penetrate the casing and drill pipes causing the flow to go through the bypass and up through the new riser. After all, why try to intercept the runaway pipe at 5000 feet when you can do it safely right in the Blowout Preventer Stack?

[HurricaneBill]

While the environmental impact from this spill is the main focus (as it should be), there's one thing I think many have overlooked:

At the heart of oil spill, 11 grieving families

R.I.P. to the 11 workers who lost their lives in the explosion:

Gordon Jones, 28, Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Aaron Dale Burkeen, 37, Philadelphia, Mississippi

Adam Weise, 24, Yorktown, Texas

Jason Anderson, Bay City, Texas

Karl Kleppinger Jr., 38, Natchez, Mississippi

Dewey Revette, 48, State Line, Mississippi

Shane Roshto, 22, Liberty, Mississippi

Donald Clark, 49, Newellton, Louisiana

Stephen Curtis, 40, Georgetown, Louisiana

Blair Manuel, 56, Gonzalez, Louisiana

Roy Wyatt Kemp, 27, Jonesville, Louisiana

[Stephanie]

While the environmental impact from this spill is the main focus (as it should be), there's one thing I think many have overlooked:

At the heart of oil spill, 11 grieving families

R.I.P. to the 11 workers who lost their lives in the explosion:

Gordon Jones, 28, Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Aaron Dale Burkeen, 37, Philadelphia, Mississippi

Adam Weise, 24, Yorktown, Texas

Jason Anderson, Bay City, Texas

Karl Kleppinger Jr., 38, Natchez, Mississippi

Dewey Revette, 48, State Line, Mississippi

Shane Roshto, 22, Liberty, Mississippi

Donald Clark, 49, Newellton, Louisiana

Stephen Curtis, 40, Georgetown, Louisiana

Blair Manuel, 56, Gonzalez, Louisiana

Roy Wyatt Kemp, 27, Jonesville, Louisiana

Good point HurricaneBill. I think this is the first time I saw the list of names of the dead workers, may they rest in peace.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

BP says tool is working 'as planned' to capture leaking oil in Gulf

By Dennis Persica, The Times-Picayune
May 16, 2010, 2:09PM

A tool inserted into the leaking drill pipe on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico is pumping oil to a surface ship, a BP official said Sunday afternoon.
Kent Wells, BP's senior executive vice president, said the tool was inserted into the riser on the Gulf floor Saturday night.
However,"we were just starting to get oil to the surface when the tool got dislodged," he said.
The tool was reinserted Sunday morning and "It's working as planned," Wells said.
Both oil and natural gas are being pumped to the surface; the natural gas is burned off while the oil is stored on a vessel, said Wells, who spoke at a news conference in Houston.

Wells said the insertion tool is extracting "some" of the flow from the leaking pipe.
"We will continue to increase the amount" of oil being extracted, but will do so slowly, Wells said. "It will take a little time."
"We will do everything we can to capture as much as possible," he said. He had no estimate on how much of the leaking oil is being captured by the tool.

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/bp_says_tool_is_working_but_ca.html

My sincere condolences to the eleven families. Yes, they should not remain nameless. Thank you for your post.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Giant Plumes of Oil Forming Under the Gulf

"Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given.

The plumes were discovered by scientists from several universities working aboard the research vessel Pelican, which sailed from Cocodrie, La., on May 3 and has gathered extensive samples and information about the disaster in the gulf....

Scientists studying video of the gushing oil well have tentatively calculated that it could be flowing at a rate of 25,000 to 80,000 barrels of oil a day. The latter figure would be 3.4 million gallons a day. But the government, working from satellite images of the ocean surface, has calculated a flow rate of only 5,000 barrels a day.

BP has resisted entreaties from scientists that they be allowed to use sophisticated instruments at the ocean floor that would give a far more accurate picture of how much oil is really gushing from the well.

“The answer is no to that,” a BP spokesman, Tom Mueller, said on Saturday. “We’re not going to take any extra efforts now to calculate flow there at this point. It’s not relevant to the response effort, and it might even detract from the response effort.” ...."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/us/16oil.html?hp

[brunota2003]

hm...i would think it would be relevant, so we could figure out just exactly how much has spilled

[gtalum]

Why does BP have any say in the US government response to the spill? If the feds want to monitor the flow more closely, I don't see how BP can stop them.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Hearing this in the Gulf Oil Spill headlines:

"Satellite images taken Saturday by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory show that the oil may have already entered the Gulf loop current, which could pull it through the Florida Keys and into South Florida, according to an analysis by Mitch Roffer, a Florida-based oceanographer who runs Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service and has tracked the spill."

http://www.miamiherald.com

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground delivers the horrible news.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:38 PM GMT on May 17, 2010

Satellite imagery today from NASA's MODIS instrument confirms that a substantial tongue of oil has moved southeast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. The Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and then along the west side of the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 10 - 20 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the transport could be just 4 - 5 days. It now appears likely that the first Florida beaches to see oil from the spill will be in the Lower Florida Keys, not in the Panhandle.

[Stephanie]

Way to go BP!!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

White House to Create Panel to Study Gulf Oil Spill

By JOHN M. BRODER
May 17, 2010

..."Government officials insisted that the oil had not yet entered the gulf’s so-called loop current, and that they were continuing to monitor the movement of the spill closely. But two independent scientists, analyzing ocean current and satellite data, said the oil was in an eddy that was quickly being drawn into the current, portending a much wider spread of the hazardous slick.

The White House, meanwhile, said late Monday that President Obama would soon name an independent commission to investigate the cause of the spill and the response to it, largely supplanting the inquiry now being conducted by the United States Coast Guard and the Minerals Management Service, the Interior Department agency responsible for overseeing offshore oil operations. The role of both agencies in approving the drilling, preparing for an accident and supervising the cleanup are part of any overall inquiry and have raised questions about the independence of their work...."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/us/18spill.html

[dizzyfish]

Started hearing about the oil hitting the loop current yesterday morning.

Today on the radio they were talking about it again and said what I have been saying all along - "all bets are off on where the oil goes if a tropical system enters the gulf".

Sure hope that doesn't happen but they are running real short on time to get it cleaned up before "something tropical" comes along.

10:38 am - just saw this on local news. Tar balls on beaches in the Keys. http://www.wtsp.com/news/topstories/sto ... &catid=250

[vbhoutex]

Started hearing about the oil hitting the loop current yesterday morning.

Today on the radio they were talking about it again and said what I have been saying all along - "all bets are off on where the oil goes if a tropical system enters the gulf".

Sure hope that doesn't happen but they are running real short on time to get it cleaned up before "something tropical" comes along.

10:38 am - just saw this on local news. Tar balls on beaches in the Keys. http://www.wtsp.com/news/topstories/sto ... &catid=250

My guess is that these are not from the spill. According to all estimates I've seen the oil from this spill shouldn't reach that area till this weekend at the earliest.Believe me I am not pooh poohing anything here, just stating what I think. I grew up on the beaches of NW FL and we saw tar balls many times on those pristine beaches. Even the article says they may not be from the spill.
Unfortunately, it doesn't matter whether they are from the BP spill or not. We are possibly looking at the worst manmade environmental disaster ever before all is said and done if the well isn't brought under control very soon.

[thetruesms]

Like vbhoutex said, tarballs on the beaches are not uncommon, and I would be really surprised if they did turn out to be from the spill. In a way, it's kind of a bad thing that they've gotten so much attention before their origin has been determined - without any wild speculation about these tarballs, there's plenty of serious stuff out there that we do know more about more concretely.

Aqua should be passing over the area this afternoon -I'm looking forward to seeing if it can get a good glimpse of what the plume looks like today

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Today's satellite view of Gulf Weather. Perhaps someone knowledgeable might wish to comment on the weather:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Dionne]

All crude oil has a specific chemical fingerprint. Upon analysis the techs will be able to tell exactly what well the crude (tar balls) came from.....it's a very precise scientific analysis.

I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that the tar balls origin in question are probably from Horizon. As an avid beachcomber in Mississippi, Florida, the Virgin Islands and the Eastern Caribbean (West Indies).......I've found a lot of interesting things. But never a cluster of 20+/- tar balls from 4-8 inches diameter.

I hope I'm wrong.

Although the various numbers we're getting on current loop flow rates out of the GoM vary. And I suspect it is entirely possible that the leading edge of crude in the loop could very well be further south than we expect.

This has gone from an accident to an incident to a disaster and now the possibility of a widespread environmental and economic tragedy that could last for decades.

The bottom line is that we are now aware there are large plumes of crude undersea......some is settling, some is dispersing and some is traveling.

The absolute worst part is watching the wildlife suffer at our expense. I've witnessed the same in Prudhoe Bay, Prince William Sound and now the Gulf of Mexico.

[thetruesms]

All crude oil has a specific chemical fingerprint. Upon analysis the techs will be able to tell exactly what well the crude (tar balls) came from.....it's a very precise scientific analysis.

I'm going to go out on a limb and speculate that the tar balls origin in question are probably from Horizon. As an avid beachcomber in Mississippi, Florida, the Virgin Islands and the Eastern Caribbean (West Indies).......I've found a lot of interesting things. But never a cluster of 20+/- tar balls from 4-8 inches diameter.

I hope I'm wrong.

Although the various numbers we're getting on current loop flow rates out of the GoM vary. And I suspect it is entirely possible that the leading edge of crude in the loop could very well be further south than we expect.

This has gone from an accident to an incident to a disaster and now the possibility of a widespread environmental and economic tragedy that could last for decades.

The bottom line is that we are now aware there are large plumes of crude undersea......some is settling, some is dispersing and some is traveling.

The absolute worst part is watching the wildlife suffer at our expense. I've witnessed the same in Prudhoe Bay, Prince William Sound and now the Gulf of Mexico.

The tarballs were not found at once in a cluster, though - it was at multiple locations and spaced throughout the entire day. Now, whether or not the amounts found were normal, I have no idea. But at this point, it's probably better to focus on what we do know and can observe while we wait for the origin of the tarballs to be determined.

I know I posted a link to their models page earlier, but USF has added a subsurface currents component to their spill section, that others might be interested in checking out, since this situation is evolving at more than just the surface. http://ocg6.marine.usf.edu/~zheng/resea ... _traj.html

[thetruesms]

Aqua's pass did not turn out very well