MSLP forecast to be low during peak of 2010 Atlantic season

[cycloneye]

For those members who dont know what MSLP is,here is what it is= (Mean Sea Level Pressure)

The lower pressures in the Atlantic will a big factor that for sure will cause the 2010 season to be above average.And I am not talking about other factors like the above average sst's and the El Nino gone by the summer.See graphic at hyperlink below that is for July,August and September.

ECMWF long range forecast of pressures



ECMWF Mean Sea Level Pressures forecast for July,August,September

[HURAKAN]

Not good, look at the region in question. Prime hurricane territory for the Caribbean and US.

[Blown Away]

Wow, it just seems like all the ingredients are in place for a busy season! The Bermuda High strength and position during the season is still an unknown. I don't want anybody to deal with hurricane landfalls but I don't want to track these types of systems this season!

[wxman57]

I was just going to post something about this, cycloneye. Here's a comparison between last month's ECMWF forecast of SLP in the tropics for June-August vs. the current forecast for July-September. Quite amazingly low pressures forecast compared to the very high pressures in the East Pacific. This implies a weaker Bermuda High, lower trade wind speeds, warmer water and more rising air in the MDR for 2010. And to top it off, the ECMWF is predicting neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific by May (<0.5C above normal in Nino 3.4 region). The whole setup looks just the opposite of 2009.

[cycloneye]

Scary graphic:

[Blown Away]

What effect would the upper-level easterlies expanding westward and weaker easterly trade winds have on the track of tropical systems? This graphic does not show the high expanding westward, wouldn't that suggest more recurves?

[Hurricaneman]

What effect would the upper-level easterlies expanding westward and weaker easterly trade winds have on the track of tropical systems? This graphic does not show the high expanding westward, wouldn't that suggest more recurves?

maybe, but if what you're saying is right, the carolinas need to be watchful this year, and possibly northeastward, but we still have to figure out the strength and orentation of the bermuda high

[Ivanhater]

Even if the Bermuda high is "weaker", with the lower pressures the Euro is advertising, there could be many "home grown" systems developing in the Western Atlantic and Western Caribbean. This is what the Gommers will have to worry about in my opinion. I'm more interested in what the wx pattern will be across the East coast, if a trough sets up or not.

I'm afraid the U.S could be a dartboard this season, hopefully one of them does not hit your number.

[wxman57]

In addition, the Euro is predicting a rapid transition to La Nina by fall. Considering how well it did with last Summer's El Nino, I think it's something not to discount:

[MGC]

I sure hope all these long range forecasts bust....if not, it is looking to be an active season.....MGC

[RL3AO]

I sure hope all these long range forecasts bust....if not, it is looking to be an active season.....MGC

I think these models will need to bust just to be an active season. If they're right, it could be a hyper-active year.

[Cookie]

i keep hearing the word hyper active being bounded around,

whats the differnce between say a non hyper active seasona and normal active season?

[RL3AO]

i keep hearing the word hyper active being bounded around,

whats the differnce between say a non hyper active seasona and normal active season?

Seasons with ACE of 153 or more are called "hyperactive" by some. Its not really an official term.

[KWT]

[quote="wxman57"]In addition, the Euro is predicting a rapid transition to La Nina by fall. Considering how well it did with last Summer's El Nino, I think it's something not to discount:

The ECM looks a LOT like 1998 with how rapidly it switches everything over, its quite insane!

There is some support from other models, that being said the models struggle with ENSO around this time of year so still far too early to know, I personally think the ECM is seeing a pattern and running it to its extreme.

If we go slight cold neutral, then things will probably be nearly or maybe as favourable as we saw in 2005...something I never thought I'd say!

[Derek Ortt]

please hold el nino
please hold el nino
please hold el nino

[Macrocane]

Though I understand why you and other people want El Niño to hold on, here in Central America we're hoping for El Niño to go because that would be very very bad to our countries. Last year the rainfall was significantly reduced because of El Niño and if it persists this year we will have below average rainfall again and the crops will suffer serious damage, the dams will have less water to produce power and the temperatures will rise. So we don't want El Niño to survive.

[Derek Ortt]

careful what you wish for Macrocane

most of the devastating WC hurricanes are when there is no el nino

[Macrocane]

careful what you wish for Macrocane

most of the devastating WC hurricanes are when there is no el nino

You're right and that's even more scary than another El Niño. Both scenarios have their pros and cons. The best thing would be a Neutral year without destructive hurricanes but maybe that's too much to ask for especially in this phase of the AMO.

[Cookie]

i keep hearing the word hyper active being bounded around,

whats the differnce between say a non hyper active seasona and normal active season?

Seasons with ACE of 153 or more are called "hyperactive" by some. Its not really an official term.

thanks mate, for clearing that up.

[Ptarmigan]

Even if the Bermuda high is "weaker", with the lower pressures the Euro is advertising, there could be many "home grown" systems developing in the Western Atlantic and Western Caribbean. This is what the Gommers will have to worry about in my opinion. I'm more interested in what the wx pattern will be across the East coast, if a trough sets up or not.

I'm afraid the U.S could be a dartboard this season, hopefully one of them does not hit your number.

Most storms in 2005 formed in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.