Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

HGX is already mentioning the chance for freezing temps. Monday morning would be my call as gusty winds will likely still be a factor on Sunday morning...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
CURRENT TEMP FORECAST. WILL TWEAK SKY COVER A BIT TO SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. MODELS SHOW A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ENTERING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8. IF THESE TEMPS VERIFY...FREEZING
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUN OR MON MORNING. THINK WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH AND MIXING WILL LIMIT A SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURE
DROP. 43

[HockeyTx82]

If by some miracle DFW gets snow out of this system would it count towards trying to beat the record for most snow this season? Being the first day of Spring on Saturday I was not sure how that would work........ Anyone know?

[Ntxw]

I think it would count. Areas up north that get snow up to May keeps the tallies with the adjacent season. In this case for 2009-2010 season.

12z Euro = Snow north Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

I think it would count. Areas up north that get snow up to May keeps the tallies with the adjacent season. In this case for 2009-2010 season.

12z Euro = Snow north Texas.

Cool, any guess as to how much might stick? I realize we have been "warm" for a while but just curious.

[Ntxw]

I think it would count. Areas up north that get snow up to May keeps the tallies with the adjacent season. In this case for 2009-2010 season.

12z Euro = Snow north Texas.

Cool, any guess as to how much might stick? I realize we have been "warm" for a while but just curious.

Track track track...I think an inch or two is very possible in places like Sherman and Gainesville. As for DFW itself none of the models show anything much more than a dusting at best. If the low is deep enough it could pull some heavier stuff up north due south. Lots of scenarios. This looks to be a very very cold core low (-30 at 20k ft or so) and lots of surface cold air advection. It won't take long to stick to grassy areas if it's heavy enough.

[somethingfunny]

LOL!

This is the BEST winter.

[Tejas89]

KRLD just mentioned a Winter Weather Advisory "for our area" (DFW) starting tomorrow at 9 a.m. Didn't say the specific counties though. Latest FTW discussion says models trending colder and full forecast later this afternoon.

The winter that keeps on giving.

[somethingfunny]

It's for the northern two tiers of counties. Basicaslly from US 380 northward. That could change as we get closer to the event.

[southerngale]

1st day of Spring - 40% chance of snow for Dallas Saturday night. 20% chance of snow on Sunday.

My forecast has lows in the 30s for 3 days, starting Saturday night. Welcome to Spring, everyone!

[Turtle]

Here is a snippet of Shreveport's AFD:

BUT THE CURRENT HWO HAS BEEN
GIVING A HEADS UP FOR ISOLATED STRONG POTENTIAL SINCE THE 12Z RUN
BECAME AVAILABLE. AS THE HEAVY RAIN IS ENDING...BACK WEST...ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-30...SNOW MAY MIX IN...BUT MAYBE NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN...EXPECTING RAIN TO TRANSITION
INTO SNOW FROM MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

[KatDaddy]

More snow for Texas. Glad I am in Dallas this weekend. Photos will be posted if we see snow.

[utweather]

More snow for Texas. Glad I am in Dallas this weekend. Photos will be posted if we see snow.

I hope you guys get some, that would be really cool:-)

[Turtle]

The 00 GFS seems to be showing colder temperatures for me. I hope to get a few inches of snow! Probably will just get a dusting though.

[Peanut432]

Sleeting heavy at my house in extreme sw Oklahoma 30 mile NE of Childress Tx

[Ntxw]

Areas around Lubbock are reporting unknown precip and thunder. Wonder if that's thundersnow? Amazing.

[somethingfunny]

Denton, Texas (33.2°N/97.1°W); Updated: 1:05 AM CDT (March 20, 2010);
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy;
Temperature: 62.3°F (16.8°C);
High/Low: 40/31°F (4/0°C);
UV: 0/16;
Humidity: 65%;
Dew Point: 50°F (10°C);
Pressure: 29.85 in/1010.7 hPa;
Wind: SSW at 2.0 MPH (3.2 KPH)

Decatur, Texas (33.2°N/97.6°W);
Updated: 1:05 AM CDT (March 20, 2010);
Conditions: Overcast;
Temperature: 46.7°F (8.2°C);
Windchill: 39°F (4°C);
High/Low: 36/31°F (2/0°C);
UV: 0.0/16;
Humidity: 85%;
Dew Point: 42°F (6°C);
Pressure: 29.85 in/1010.7 hPa;
Wind: NNW at 21.9 MPH (35.2 KPH)

I found the front.

[Turtle]

Wow that's amazing somethingfunny.

I'm getting a 40% rain/snow mix for Saturday night into Sunday according to the NWS.

[funster]

An inch possible for the metroplex... pretty unusual for mid March

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST WE/VE ADDED TARRANT...DALLAS...ROCKWAL...KAUFMAN AND VA
ZANDT COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING WSW.

IT IS A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS DUE THE
WINTER WEATHER INVADING THE NORTHERN CWA. A VERY INTENSE WINTER
CYCLONE IS IN THE MAKING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STANDARDIZED 500 MB ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING UP TO MINUS 4.0 AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST OF I-35 AND INTO LOUISIANA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A BONHAM TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE AT 3AM AND
MOVING ABOUT 16 KNOTS SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD CLEAR PALESTINE AND
CENTERVILLE AROUND 9AM. COLD AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NORTH OF
I-30 ARE ALL FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITE PRODUCTION DOWN TO I-30
TONIGHT. MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
STRONG TROWEL SIGNATURE OVER OKLAHOMA THAT NOSES DOWN INTO NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS FEATURE WILL BE NORTH OF A
DENTON TO EMORY LINE WITH FANNIN AND LAMAR COUNTIES IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR 3 PLUS INCHES OF SNOWFALL. FOR THIS REASONING
WE/VE ADDED SOME COUNTIES TO WSW...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX WHERE
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY COULD SEE ONE INCH. WOULD EXPECT THE
SNOWFALL TO AFFECT I-35...DENTON AND NORTHWARD...THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL INTO OKLAHOMA WILL BE DIFF CULT AND TREACHEROUS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUST TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FREEZE WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF SUNDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
NORTH OF I-30 MONDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE MIDWEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL.

[Texas Snowman]

Heavy rain here, in the 40s, and heading down.

Based on what I can glean from forecasts, AFD's and OKC NWS snowfall map, right up here along the river where I'm at in extreme northern Grayson County, somewhere between 2-4 inches may fall.

Pretty amazing stuff...

[wall_cloud]

we're sitting under about 4-5 inches of new snow this morning. luckily winds have relaxed to less than 30 mph so vsbys have increased accordingly. a little more is on the way, but additional accumulations should be minimal. winter sucks.