Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Tejas89]

Steve McCauley (WFAA Dallas) was hinting at a possible 'return to winter' with one model showing a pronounced North->South pattern next week (week of 21st..). Thoughts? He added that another model (he didn't name either) was similar but more modified air.

[Ntxw]

Steve McCauley (WFAA Dallas) was hinting at a possible 'return to winter' with one model showing a pronounced North->South pattern next week (week of 21st..). Thoughts? He added that another model (he didn't name either) was similar but more modified air.

The models have shown chillier weather, however they keep pushing it back as we approach the period in which they had predicted previously. Cold intrusions are becoming less and less likely. Though in the past, Easter in Texas has been somewhat the exception for spring with colder air often times making a visit to our state (a blizzard in the panhandle last year). Snow fell in central Texas Easter of '07 I believe, though an event like that is highly unlikely. This week is very nice so we should enjoy it with mild days and cool nights before the oppressive heat kicks in.

[Ntxw]

After doing some searching, I found a great site people can use to look at the winter storms this previous season. Just put in the date and what type of satellite\radar you want to view and voila, relive those systems!

http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/case-selection/

I find the RadarComposites and satellite options fun

[TeamPlayersBlue]

After doing some searching, I found a great site people can use to look at the winter storms this previous season. Just put in the date and what type of satellite\radar you want to view and voila, relive those systems!

http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/case-selection/

I find the RadarComposites and satellite options fun

well, there goes my day!

[Ntxw]

Don't look now, but the models are latching on to a colder period next week with a potential major winter storm in the central plains and parts of the southern plains. Deep cut off low, all shown within a reasonable time frame. Though the sun angle would count against this system (for Texas and Oklahoma), there is fresh cold air coming down.

0z GFS 108hrs, 12z was similar.





114 hrs





120hrs

[aerology]

Well weirder things have happened, In my analog forecast I have both tornadoes and heavy snow, showing up depending on which cycle you want to go with, for the 20th thru 24th.

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't be the first time to have both in the same period. That's what spring is famous for afterall . Folks looks more and more likely chillier weather is coming this weekend.

[somethingfunny]

Looks like it's almost time to make another snow chase to Oklahoma!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Looks like it's almost time to make another snow chase to Oklahoma!

If you're planning one, I suggest northwest Oklahoma from Woodward, OK to the northern Texas panhandle (preferably along the Kansas border). Alva, Ok had 2 ft in the late March blizzard last year while Dalhart was reporting 2-4 ft drifts. That's the most likely place this time of year for hefty snows relative to us.

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts on the upcoming pattern and system. Very interesting at the least...winter isn't quite done yet.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner

Recalling any pattern changers in Dec?

[wxman57]

No, winter's not over, but it does look over for the Dallas area. The snow with this system will likely be across extreme northern OK and southern KS. It looks like it'll be too warm in the lower levels while the precip is falling over NE TX.

[Ntxw]

No, winter's not over, but it does look over for the Dallas area. The snow with this system will likely be across extreme northern OK and southern KS. It looks like it'll be too warm in the lower levels while the precip is falling over NE TX.

If you read the previous posts, it's only been mentioned that chillier weather (temps) regarding disruptions to planting, not snow. It's pretty clear the winter precip is in far NW Oklahoma to the central plains. Where is snow for Dallas mentioned?

However, looks like these cold intrusions are setting up a more active severe weather pattern. Just need the Gulf to warm up a bit to get that going a bit more =P

[jasons2k]

Thoughts from Jeff Lindner this morning:

Strong cold air outbreak headed for TX this weekend.

Potential for frost/freeze across portions of SE /SC TX Sunday and Monday mornings.

Upper level storm system responsible for the rains yesterday has pushed east of the area. Water vapor images show a strong vort over the Midwest dropping southward on the backside of this system however with very limited moisture only an increase in clouds can be expected late this afternoon as this system drops down the Sabine River.

Very nice weather in store for the region Thursday and Friday with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s under mostly sunny skies and increasing southerly winds.

Next item of interest is a strong storm system/cold front combo on Saturday. Models continue to come in deeper and colder with this system with a good cold push out of NW Canada as a strong ridge develops along the US west coast with a deep downstream eastern US trough. Moisture return begins in earnest on Friday as pressures lower over the TX panhandle. Do not expect showers until sometime Saturday morning. Cold front plows southward Saturday reaching the area around midday and sweeping off the coast by late afternoon. While moisture return looks marginal there should be enough to squeeze out a round of showers and thunderstorms along the front. SPC has already highlighted our eastern counties for a risk of a few severe storms…but this looks highly marginal. A good temperature drop and increase in NW winds will make Saturday afternoon feel like we are back in deep winter again with temps. Falling through the 50’s into the upper 40’s under NW winds of 15-25 mph.

Bigger concern is how cold will it get as spring green up is well underway and sensitive plantings could be damaged by a frost/freeze. Current guidance suggest near freezing temperatures across the northern portion of SE TX then SW toward the northern coastal bend by Sunday morning as cold air advection brings near 0C 850mb temperatures southward. 540mb thickness values support some fairly chilly air for Sunday. Will go with a light freeze north of Hwy 105 Sunday morning and in the rural areas along and west of a line from Cypress to Katy to Richmond. Bigger concern for a more widespread freeze/frost will come Monday morning under clear skies and light winds. Models are showing weak return flow by early Monday morning and dewpoint recovery to above freezing however if this is delayed by a few hours several locations could bottom out in the 30-34 degree range especially along and NE of a line from Bay City to Wharton to Giddings.

[wxman57]

No, winter's not over, but it does look over for the Dallas area. The snow with this system will likely be across extreme northern OK and southern KS. It looks like it'll be too warm in the lower levels while the precip is falling over NE TX.

If you read the previous posts, it's only been mentioned that chillier weather (temps) regarding disruptions to planting, not snow. It's pretty clear the winter precip is in far NW Oklahoma to the central plains. Where is snow for Dallas mentioned?

However, looks like these cold intrusions are setting up a more active severe weather pattern. Just need the Gulf to warm up a bit to get that going a bit more =P

Posts were read - nothing about gardening on this page at all, just mention of Larry Cosgrove's article talking about snow potential down to Dallas. That's not going to happen.

[Ntxw]

I don't think he said snow in Dallas, he mentioned the arc (marker points) of those locations west of that line is where the colder temps would be for snow (where it can snow) and east of that line won't likely see much wintry weather. Either way, frost and freezes (usually referring to gardening interests this time of year) are possible in north, northwest and northern s\e Texas particularly outside the immediate metro areas.

[gboudx]

Morning email from jeff

Nice weather today and Friday will end Saturday as a strong late season cold front brings an impressive cold snap for mid March.

Potential for frost/light freeze on Sunday morning and Monday morning for portions of the area.

High pressure will begin to move eastward today allowing the development of onshore winds by tonight. Gulf of Mexico is highly worked over from the past storm system with little moisture to be found. SE winds will increase on Friday with dewpoints recovering into the 50’s by Friday evening. Potent upper level storm will drop through the Rockies and into late Friday into Saturday while cold air over NW Canada surges southward down the plains. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be fairly modest with only upper 50 degree dewpoints expected by early Saturday. ECMWF is slower and deeper with the trough and provides a much better shot at showers and thunderstorms. However will side toward the faster GFS with a dense cold air mass likely pushing southward faster than guidance would tend to show. Additionally, systems of late have had a tough time producing wetting rains over TX with poor quality moisture return off a rather cold Gulf of Mexico.

Dynamics will be impressive with this system and if better quality moisture can be drawn northern then a severe weather threat would be possible mainly along and east of I-45. Feel most areas will see some rainfall with this event given strong frontal forcing…with the greatest coverage E of I-45 and the least coverage toward Matagorda Bay. Very strong offshore flow develops behind the front with 40-50kts around 850mb for Saturday afternoon and temperatures dropping into the lower 50’s.Expect sustained 15-25mph winds at the surface making for a very blustery first day of spring.

Big question is how cold for Sunday and Monday mornings. Feel winds will stay up some overnight Saturday and this may help save some areas from a freeze. With that said lows of 32-35 will be possible from roughly Columbus to Conroe to Livingston Sunday morning. Past studies suggest the second night behind the front is usually the coldest and this seems likely with this event with clear skies, light winds, and surface ridge nearly overhead. Guidance continues to come in warmer for Monday morning, but I like a colder solution given the above reasoning. Will go with a light freeze and heavy frost (given small T/Td depressions) for areas along and N of a line from Victoria to Wharton to Sugar Land to Cypress to Kingwood to Liberty. Only a few hours of near or at freezing, but with the spring planting and green up season underway some significant damage is possible. It is still possible that the surface ridge will translate across the region during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday morning allowing weak onshore flow to develop and a slight enough increase in dewpoints to keep more of the SW and W counties a tad warmer…I think this is what the models are hinting at with their warmer lows for Monday.

[wxman57]

GFS has trended toward the Euro with colder air over OK (and TX) with Saturday's storm. It's making the mistake of indicating snow in the D-FW area but the lower few thousand feet should be well above freezing. (like the last few events). But it is looking like OK will see some quite significant snow. 12Z GFS has over a foot of snow in east-central OK northeast through SW Missouri.

[orangeblood]

This system is trending colder and further south. The models have been doing this for most of the winter. I wouldn't rule out snow flying around in Dallas on Saturday quite yet.

[orangeblood]

GFS has trended toward the Euro with colder air over OK (and TX) with Saturday's storm. It's making the mistake of indicating snow in the D-FW area but the lower few thousand feet should be well above freezing. (like the last few events). But it is looking like OK will see some quite significant snow. 12Z GFS has over a foot of snow in east-central OK northeast through SW Missouri.

wxman57 - don't you think this system looks much colder than the last two ? On the GFS and NAM, the freezing line is down into North Texas on Saturday evening.

[Ntxw]

One thing to note, the GFS winds it up very tightly in the Arklatex region quite similar to the Christmas storm to about the same gradient. Curious to see how much cold air in the lower levels the storm would pull down being so intense. I'd figure this would be a near blizzard in E\NE Oklahoma to NW Arkansas and SW Missouri. NAM does similar but is a tad further north.