SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F/19P)

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 16/1320 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 SOUTH
178.6 WEST AT 161200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.2S 178.6W AT 161200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 14 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRLCE AND 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.2S 176.8W AT 170000 UTC.
AND NEAR 28.1S 172.8W AT 171200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.

[Sanibel]

Dang. Missed a major Fiji landfaller.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 23.0S 177.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 177.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.2S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.2S 168.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 177.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 161637Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TC TOMAS HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS RE-ESTABLISHED A
PARTIAL EYEWALL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO HAVE COME UP TO 115 KNOTS. TC TOMAS HAS
INTENSIFIED DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST CAUSED BY A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC TOMAS IS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JETSTREAM, TRACKS OVER
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STARTS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 170900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looks like westerly shear affecting Tomas