SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[Kingarabian]

Is this because of El Nino, or do we have this every year?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0658 UTC 15/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.0S
Longitude: 158.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots [270 km/h]
Central Pressure: 925 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/S/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1800: 13.3S 158.0E: 050 [095]: 120 [220]: 930
+24: 16/0600: 13.5S 157.5E: 080 [150]: 120 [220]: 916
+36: 16/1800: 13.8S 157.8E: 110 [210]: 125 [230]: 910
+48: 17/0600: 14.3S 158.2E: 145 [270]: 125 [230]: 912
+60: 17/1800: 15.2S 158.8E: 190 [355]: 125 [230]: 912
+72: 18/0600: 16.4S 159.2E: 240 [445]: 125 [230]: 913
REMARKS:
Analysis based on Vis pic with embedded centre.

DT is 6.0, MET is 6.0 also, Final T 6.0. CI is 6.0

System has reintensified during the past 6 hours with a better defined eye.
Outflow to south remains very strong.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[Macrocane]

Is this because of El Nino, or do we have this every year?

El Niño makes the Pacific basins more active and with stronger systems than during Neutral years, that's why SPAC has been that active this season.

[KWT]

ECM still has a very tricky to call set-up, the model takes Ului right upto the coastline and then holds it there before taking it back eastwards.

Therefore it seems just about anything is still possible with this system.

Also does look like it maybe strengthening again...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 158.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 158.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.3S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.6S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.1S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.7S 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.6S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.2S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.4S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND A 180820Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 130 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ULUI CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
IN AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WEAKENS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDING IN. BY TAU 72, THE
STR SHOULD BUILD BACK IN AND BEGIN SPEEDING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST.
INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE WITH INCREASING VWS
AND DECREASING OHC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED IN THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FORECAST WAS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1309 UTC 15/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 158.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 13.4S 158.1E: 060 [110]: 115 [215]: 917
+24: 16/1200: 13.6S 157.7E: 090 [165]: 115 [215]: 916
+36: 17/0000: 13.8S 157.6E: 120 [225]: 125 [230]: 903
+48: 17/1200: 14.2S 158.0E: 155 [285]: 125 [230]: 904
+60: 18/0000: 14.9S 158.3E: 200 [375]: 125 [230]: 905
+72: 18/1200: 16.1S 158.7E: 250 [465]: 125 [230]: 907
REMARKS:
Analysis based on enhanced IR satellite image with embedded centre pattern.

White surround with banding feature, gives DT of 5.5. MET and PT suggest 5.0 and
5.5 respectively. FT based on DT as it appears reasonably clear.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

That is definitely not 130 kt, I don't know where that estimate came from. I would guess around 105 kt.

[HURAKAN]

Starting to look much better organized

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0048 UTC 16/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 158.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 13.5S 157.8E: 050 [095]: 100 [185]: 939
+24: 17/0000: 13.8S 158.0E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 934
+36: 17/1200: 14.4S 158.6E: 110 [210]: 105 [195]: 935
+48: 18/0000: 15.1S 159.1E: 145 [270]: 105 [195]: 935
+60: 18/1200: 16.2S 159.6E: 190 [355]: 105 [195]: 936
+72: 19/0000: 17.4S 159.1E: 240 [445]: 105 [195]: 937
REMARKS:
Eye pattern with W surround with OW centre, giving DT of 6.5. MET and PT both
suggest 6.0. Final T based on MET.

Expect steering of the system to become more northerly during the next 48 hours
as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the south. From Thursday a new
mid-level ridge develops south of the system and steering should become more
NE'ly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

EWRC?

[HURAKAN]

Latest VIS

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.7S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.1S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.0S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.8S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 158.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATLEY 750 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A 20-NM RAGGED EYE WHILE A 151829Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE, POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS WANED DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY
PRESENTED BY INFRARED IMAGERY AND A LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY NEAR
16/00Z. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF AGREE AT 115 KNOTS.
TC ULUI HAS TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS, TC ULUI WILL START TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CAUSES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RECEDE
AND ENABLES A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO BECOME THE
DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE. BY TAU 48, THE MID-LATIUDE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO THE EAST AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA TO
RE-DEVELOPS THIS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL ALLOW TC
ULUI TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, ROBUST
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BY TAU 48
WILL ENABLE TC ULUI TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THOUGH THE DIFFERENT MODELS EACH CHARACTERIZE THE DEGREE TO WHICH
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY. THE UKMO
SOLUTION IS ON THE FAR WEST EDGE OF THE ENVELOP WHILE THE GFS MODEL
TRACKER SHOWS THE GREATEST SOUTHEAST TURN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Squarethecircle]

Continuing to improve on IR (eye is nice and warm).

[HURAKAN]

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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0705 UTC 16/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [246 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 13.8S 157.6E: 050 [095]: 110 [205]: 926
+24: 17/0600: 14.3S 157.7E: 080 [150]: 110 [205]: 926
+36: 17/1800: 14.9S 158.0E: 110 [210]: 115 [215]: 921
+48: 18/0600: 15.6S 158.3E: 145 [270]: 115 [215]: 921
+60: 18/1800: 16.7S 158.1E: 190 [355]: 115 [215]: 922
+72: 19/0600: 17.8S 157.2E: 240 [445]: 115 [215]: 924
REMARKS:
Eye pattern with B surround and OW centre, giving DT of 6.0. MET and PT both
suggest 6.0. Final T based on DT as it appears clear.

Expect steering winds associated with the system to become more northerly during
the next 24 hours as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the south.
From Thursday onwards a new mid-level ridge will develop south of the system and
steering winds should become more NE'ly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 157.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 157.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.8S 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.4S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.2S 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.0S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.8S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0S 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 157.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TOWARDS AN IRREGULAR
AND CLOUD-FILLED 20 NM EYE. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A 110 KNOT SYSTEM, IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTH (TOWARDS A TROUGH-INDUCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE) IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TC. THIS WILL ALLOW ULUI TO TURN WEST TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FORCE. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 20S. PRIOR TO THAT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD HOVER AROUND 100 KNOTS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS 2
RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Seems like the JWTC take this into E.Queensland as a SS cat-1. Will be very interesting to see how this evolves.

If this stays further north then progged then the shear won't be quite so damaging, equally the further south it goes the less the risk is for a damaging TC.