SPO : EX TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH

[tolakram]

It's now Sarah, according to the NHC floater.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float6.html

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 261200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 26/1401 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH CENTRE [995HPA] [CAT1] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
163.2W AT 261200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. 10 MINUTE AVERAGED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL
MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER
OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH,EAST AND SOUTH. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO AREA OF
DECREASING SHEAR. SST AROUND 27C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP=0.6
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEYOND 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING IT INTO COOLER SST AND
INCREASING SHEAR.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000UTC 17.2S 162.7W MOV SE 04 KTS WITH 40 KTS
WIND CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200UTC 17.9S 162.2W MOV SE 04 KTS WITH 50 KTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000UTC 18.4S 161.8W MOV SE 03 KTS WITH 50 KTS
WIND CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200UTC 18.6S 161.4W MOV SE 02 KTS WITH 40 KTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 262030
UTC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPS21 PGTW 261400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 163.4W TO 18.5S 164.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 163.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
163.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 163.6W, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 260823Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED BUT SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED L0W-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE MOTION HAS BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 260824Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE
COVERING THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
TO 20-25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTED 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0219 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH CENTRE [995HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S
163.2W AT 270000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 02 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGED WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE DECREASING TO BELOW GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

LLCC EXPOSED ABOUT 57NM WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION
REDEVELOPED ALONG BAND TO NORTHEAST AND TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER SHEAR REGION
JUST SOUTH. SST AROUND 29C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN
YIELDING DT=2.0, PT=1.5, MET=1.5. FT BASED ON PT THUS,
T1.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRACK AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID 271200UTC 17.6S 163.1W MOV S 02 KTS WITH 30 KTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID 280000UTC 18.0S 163.1W MOV S 02 KTS WITH 30 KTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID 281200UTC 18.4S 163.0W MOV S 01 KTS WITH 25 KTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID 010000UTC 18.6S 163.1W MOV SSW 01 KTS WITH 25 KTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE SARAH UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

[Sheronz]

Redeveloping but still partiallly exposed, strong wind shear just south.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0818 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH CENTRE [995HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
162.9W AT 270600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED JUST TO THE EAST OF LLCC IN THE LAST 6
HOURS. THE EXPOSED LLCC IS ABOUT 30NM WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER SHEAR
REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 29C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRACK AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID 271800UTC 17.6S 162.6W MOV SSE 02 KTS WITH 35 KTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID 280600UTC 18.1S 162.5W MOV SSE 02 KTS WITH 30 KTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID 281800UTC 18.5S 162.1W MOV SE 03 KTS WITH 25 KTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID 010600UTC 18.8S 162.0W MOV SE 01 KTS WITH 25 KTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SARAH WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
271400 UTC 0R EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 27/1407 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH CENTRE [995 HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
162.6W AT 271200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC IS NOW ON THE
EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST CONVECTION. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER SHEAR REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH. SST
AROUND 29C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=3.0.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 17.8S 162.3W MOV SE 03 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 18.3S 161.8W MOV SE 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 18.6S 161.4W MOV SE 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 18.9S 161.1W MOV SE 02 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SARAH BE ISSUED AROUND
272000 UTC OR EARLIER.

[cycloneye]

JTWC Final Warning



WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SARAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SARAH) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 162.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 162.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8S 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 162.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SARAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS PROPAGATED BACK OVER A PREVIOUSLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND FROM A 270803Z ASCAT IMAGE AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM
PGTW. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PHFO, KNES AND NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17P IS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC SARAH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO HIGH VWS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271200Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 27/2017 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH CENTRE [995 HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
162.2W AT 271800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS
DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC SHEARED 20NM WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. COLD TOPS
ALONG BAND TO NORTHEAST PERSISTED PAST 12 HOURS BUT BEGINNING TO
DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER SHEAR REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 29C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=3.0. PT AND MET
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK AND GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 18.0S 162.1W MOV SSE 01 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 18.1S 162.0W MOV SE 01 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 18.3S 161.9W MOV SSE 01 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 18.9S 161.1W MOV SE 02 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC SARAH WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 280230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

Fully exposed.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 28/0159 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH CENTRE [995 HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S
162.9W AT 280000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS
DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FULLY EXPOSED LLCC SHEARED 90NM WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29C. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=1.5. PT AND MET AGREE.
CONSTRAINTS BROKEN TO REFLECT RAPID WEAKENING TREND. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, T1.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS BASED ON LATEST JMA AND UK RUNS
WHICH GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AND WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 17.1S 163.3W MOV WNW 02 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 17.0S 163.6W MOV W 02 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 17.1S 163.9W MOV W 01 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 17.1S 164.3W MOV WSW 02 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC SARAH
UNLESS IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 28/0846 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F EX-TC SARAH CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 17.0S 163.1 AT 280600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT-IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. TD NOW MOVING
NORTHWEST ABOUT 09 KNOTS.SST AROUND 29C. CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS UP TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOW MOVEMENT OF 11F TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST WITHOUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD 11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 28/2251 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F EX-TC SARAH CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 16.4S 161.3 AT 282100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. TD11F SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 29C. LLCC
EXPOSED AND SHEARED WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ORGANISATION
POOR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOW MOVEMENT OF 11F WITHOUT ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Back from Cuba! Went to see my family!

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/0851 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F EX-TC SARAH CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 16.3S 161.2W AT 010600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. TD11F SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 29C. EXPOSED
LLCC LIES TO THE WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ORGANISATION
POOR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SLOW SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF 11F WITHOUT ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 01/2257 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F EX-TC SARAH CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 17.2S 161.3W AT 012100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. TD11F SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 29C. EXPOSED
LLCC LIES TO THE WEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ORGANISATION POOR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SLOW MOVEMENT OF 11F WITHOUT ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Bursting but the shear is strong

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 02/0902 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F EX-TC SARAH CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 17.3S 161.8W AT 020600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 29C.

ORGANISATION POOR. EXPOSED LLCC LIES TO THE WEST OF SOME REDEVELOPED
CONVECTION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND IT IS SLOW MOVING WITH
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 02/2328 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F EX-TC SARAH CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 17.0S 163.2W AT 022100 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION GOOD BASED
ON VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 29C.

LLCC EXPOSED. CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH CENTRE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD11F TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ISSUE FOR THIS
SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Sheronz]

Still there but poorly organized.