Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[HockeyTx82]

I don't think so. I emailed the FW NWS and this is what they said:


No registration needed, just show up and everything will be taken care of.


That being said I don't see anything that says we would have to pay. It's a volunteer thing so I would think not on our end. Anyone ever gone to one of these classes?

I would like to go to the one in Mansfield 3/27. Just to confirm, you just show up?

That's what they told me in my email. I have never gone so I am not even sure what to expect. Check out this page. It has the contact info for each region of Texas in regards to the training.

http://www.stormready.noaa.gov/stormmaps/tx-cwa.htm

[wxman57]

worth taking note 12z nam just coming in and its putting some pretty heavy precip amts across eastern,se ok
for tomorrow. i have not looked in great detail yet as to if it would be all winter precip or what but def some high amts on the
order of 0.75"-1.00"

Here's the 12Z NAM snowfall accumulation chart for the storm. Looks like it's forecasting that precip to be rain. This is the greatest snow accumulation I could find over the next 24 hours:



And here's the NAM precip chart. 36hr total accumulated precip. It's all rain:

[HockeyTx82]

worth taking note 12z nam just coming in and its putting some pretty heavy precip amts across eastern,se ok
for tomorrow. i have not looked in great detail yet as to if it would be all winter precip or what but def some high amts on the
order of 0.75"-1.00"

Here's the 12Z NAM snowfall accumulation chart for the storm. Looks like it's forecasting that precip to be rain. This is the greatest snow accumulation I could find over the next 24 hours:

Take that image away, find me one that has snow!!!!

[msstateguy83]

sorry i got busy but thanks for the follow-up on that wxman57 i must say it could go either way tomorrow in oklahoma
but has high chance of being total bust with temps being to warm...

[wxman57]

sorry i got busy but thanks for the follow-up on that wxman57 i must say it could go either way tomorrow in oklahoma
but has high chance of being total bust with temps being to warm...

See the 2nd image I posted above. NAM's precip is all rain in SE OK. Too warm for snow, so it says. Now I do NOT like the NAM much for its snow predictions. It did a bad job with recent snow events across our region. I'd follow the GFS more closely.

[msstateguy83]

gfs looks close to the same only very light snow accums mostly in far se ok

edit: maybe a dusting up along the redriver say sherman-denison but further south gfs says no go for tomorrow

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS snow accumulations valid 6am tomorrow..



9am..

[wxman57]

That twisterdata.com site (http://www.twisterdata.com/) is a great site for analyzing the model projections of snow and rain. It's often hard to tell just when that precip is falling using the NCEP model graphics, as the precip could occur up to 6 hours before the valid time of the chart when temps are too warm for snow.

But you can use that Twister site to compare a models projection of total precipitation AND snow accumulation to separate the rain from the snow. With the 12Z NAM, we could see that all the precip it forecast in SE OK was rain, with only a tiny area of light snow. GFS is heavier with the snow, and I think it's more realistic as far as accumulations.

Also on the plus side, the Twister site updates as each panel of the model is downloaded, so no wait for a few hours after the model run is done.

[msstateguy83]

i do note there is some lighter amts say even at points near sps (my area) iam not really concerned w/this storm
most likely wont even hardly stick b/c of temps later in the peroid being above the frzing mark so no major issues
with respect to roadways,exc... now i-40 up near oklahoma city could be a little bit different have not looked into
detail that far north and also possibly eastern ok if temps are to cool down enough...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[msstateguy83]

good point wxman i find twisterdata to be great also matter of fact i would even say better then some pay sites that i use...

[Ivanhater]

Cutting into this thread real quick...What do you think about the Snowfall for the Florida Panhandle for Saturday wxman? That sure would be something!

[wxman57]

Cutting into this thread real quick...What do you think about the Snowfall for the Florida Panhandle for Saturday wxman? That sure would be something!

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

I think the sounding (from that Twister site, too) for that area looks very "funky" for snow accumulations. The GFS sounding definitely shows snow aloft, but a strange dry and warm pocket about 1000-2000 feet above the ground with temps above freezing at ground level.

As such, I'm more inclined to believe that the area could see some snow flurries but accumulations are questionable. Even snow flurries are questionable if the GFS sounding is correct.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks wxman...I'll keep looking at the next set of runs. That sure was a wake up though!

[orangeblood]

sorry i got busy but thanks for the follow-up on that wxman57 i must say it could go either way tomorrow in oklahoma
but has high chance of being total bust with temps being to warm...

See the 2nd image I posted above. NAM's precip is all rain in SE OK. Too warm for snow, so it says. Now I do NOT like the NAM much for its snow predictions. It did a bad job with recent snow events across our region. I'd follow the GFS more closely.

wxman57 - I think it should be noted that the NAM was the most accurate model in forecasting dfw's biggest 24 hour snowfall a few weeks ago. Over the past few winters, at least across North Texas, I've found the NAM to be more accurate for snowfall predictions than most models.

[wxman57]

wxman57 - I think it should be noted that the NAM was the most accurate model in forecasting dfw's biggest 24 hour snowfall a few weeks ago. Over the past few winters, at least across North Texas, I've found the NAM to be more accurate for snowfall predictions than most models.

I certainly don't remember it that way (though I'm not 100% sure I remember everything from prior to that event). I remember plotting the NAM the morning of the event and it showed the air to be too warm for snow. And it did a poor job with the snow earlier this week. It looks like the NAM is under-forecasting the snow and the GFS tends to over-forecast a bit. With the Dallas snow, the GFS initially (Monday) was forecasting a band of 8-10" across the area. Then it kind of lost the precip and dropped the forecast to 3-6".

As a matter of fact, I happened to have saved a NAM forecast from the day before the heavy snow event. It showed temps in the mid to upper 30s and only about 1/4" liquid equivalent precip. There may have been one or two runs where the NAM showed higher precip in the D-FW area than the GFS, but I think the GFS beat the NAM in that event.

[jasons2k]

Another good post today from the Chron's "Sci Guy" (click link to see pics, etc.)

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ousto.html

Another Texas-bound winter storm looming, but Houston should miss the worst

Amid the winter that will not end, another cold weather storm is headed toward Texas, but it looks like this one will spare Houston any freezing precipitation. That doesn't mean it won't feel cold, however.

Before Monday's front we actually have chance at a reasonably nice weekend, especially Sunday when highs could reach into the mid-60s with moderate east and southeast winds. But then comes another very strong front Monday morning, says meteorologist Fred Schmude, with ImpactWeather.

And it will get cold, again:

Temperatures behind the front will gradually fall from the mid-50s and down into the 40s after sunrise. Temperatures will more than likely remain in the mid 40s to near 50 during the day as overrunning clouds and periods of light rain linger over the area behind the departing cold front.

There might even be a little mixed sleet just north of the Houston area over East Texas on Monday, but we doubt it will move into the Houston area before the rain ends late in the afternoon. Gusty north winds of 10 to 20 mph will make it feel even colder during the day as Canadian high pressure builds rapidly southward across Texas.

Clouds are forecast to decrease Monday evening followed by mostly clear and cold conditions with a chance of a light early morning freeze on Tuesday over far northern and western Harris County. Mostly sunny and cool weather conditions are expected during the day on Tuesday with decreasing winds and high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s.

Another light freeze early Wednesday, again mainly north and west of Downtown Houston, will be followed by mostly sunny and even milder weather during the day with high temperatures reaching well into the 60s.

Someone asked Tuesday why there was all this hoopla about a few snowflakes and cold-ish weather in Houston. Clearly this is nothing like what northerners experience, or even people in Dallas. Are we Houston folk just wimps, then?

Uhh, no.

Despite two official snowfalls this winter, snow is a rare occurrence in Houston, typically happening only about every four years. It's a novelty. It's fun.

As for the cold weather, during many years we may only get a handful of freezes. And by late February we're accustomed to 70-degree days, not freezing nights.

Consider last year's February in Houston, when 21 of the month's 28 days had high temperatures of 70 degrees or above, and there was not one night of freezing temperatures. On three days temperatures topped out in the 80s.

Contrast that with this February, when we've had just one -- just one! -- day when temperatures reached 70 degrees. And so far there have been four freezes.

For people who know Houston weather, this winter has felt really cold. And we know that after Valentine's Day we can begin to expect warmer days, albeit followed by cool fronts. But we don't expect strong Canadian fronts and regular chances at snow.

So that's why this is a big deal. Houston just had its second latest snowfall in the city's history on Tuesday night, and more cold weather is on the way. We're wondering where our spring is right about now.

[Nederlander]

is there any need to announce that you are leaving?? if you want someone to know, this forum has a PM feature.. back on topic

I dont want to discourage those DFW folks that are hoping for a last minute snowfall to break the record.. but it looks like spring is trying to knock on the door for texas in the upcoming weeks

[Portastorm]

is there any need to announce that you are leaving?? if you want someone to know, this forum has a PM feature.. back on topic

I dont want to discourage those DFW folks that are hoping for a last minute snowfall to break the record.. but it looks like spring is trying to knock on the door for texas in the upcoming weeks

Yep Nederlander, it might be time to cue up that ol' Peggy Lee song "Is That All There Is?"

[orangeblood]

wxman57 - I think it should be noted that the NAM was the most accurate model in forecasting dfw's biggest 24 hour snowfall a few weeks ago. Over the past few winters, at least across North Texas, I've found the NAM to be more accurate for snowfall predictions than most models.

I certainly don't remember it that way (though I'm not 100% sure I remember everything from prior to that event). I remember plotting the NAM the morning of the event and it showed the air to be too warm for snow. And it did a poor job with the snow earlier this week. It looks like the NAM is under-forecasting the snow and the GFS tends to over-forecast a bit. With the Dallas snow, the GFS initially (Monday) was forecasting a band of 8-10" across the area. Then it kind of lost the precip and dropped the forecast to 3-6".

As a matter of fact, I happened to have saved a NAM forecast from the day before the heavy snow event. It showed temps in the mid to upper 30s and only about 1/4" liquid equivalent precip. There may have been one or two runs where the NAM showed higher precip in the D-FW area than the GFS, but I think the GFS beat the NAM in that event.

I guess we both have different opinions on what models performed better during that event. That was the 06Z run the day before the event. The NAM starting catching up and beat the GFS on precip totals a good 24 hours prior to the event. The NAM had over 1 inch of liquid precip over the DFW area while the GFS never got above .60 inches for that event. That's a big difference when you're talking total snowfall accumulations. Not trying to beat a dead horse here but I think its very important to document which models outperform which during certain winter weather events. For that event in particular, if the NWS had followed the NAM models precip projections, the energy companies could have been put on more of an alert for the potential of numerous falling trees during that event. It caused a lot of headaches around here due to the fact that power was out for 2 or 3 days in certain parts of the metroplex.

[Bigdeewxguy]

long Time reader, first time poster. I just wanted to say yous guys here are great.I trust you guys more then some our local weather men in Houston.I also have learned alot about models and all..