Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[jasons2k]

say that to me again when this pans out that was quite an ignorant statement

I would be careful what you ask for. The last forecast didn't pan-out so well "Mostly Northwest of DFW".

[txagwxman]

Well looks like Monday's snow threat is less...GFS/ECMWF are weaker with the upper-level low...see what happens with the other runs later. By late next week temps could reach in the 70s across TX...so we may finally get some warmer weather.

[jasons2k]

OH, and this is the whole reason why I came to post until I started reading....

It sure is a bit colder here today than forecast. It ended-up at 29F instead of just 32F. We need these freezes to cease b/c everything here is really blooming now. It started a few weeks ago but now most of the trees are leafing-out.

[txagwxman]

why do some of you wishcast so much?

serious question...its march. you need dynamic systems with unseasonably cold air for snow in march. No cold front comes through the day before. Sunday we will see temps in the 50s.

Fort Worth NWS is inserting as a possibility in their forecasting discussion, so it's not an outrageous forecast. No one has been forecasting massive amounts of snow for this system in their "wishcasts".

Wishcast? ECMWF yesterday was a snow storm...today's models indicate that the low won't be as strong...wasn't -removed-, it is forecasting.

[DentonGal]

Back to the weather....I see some of our pro mets are online now. I know what the GFS is showing based on the 6z run, what about some of the other models for Friday and Sunday/Monday? Is there going to be enough moisture for even a lengthy cold rain? Are temps going to be borderline, or does it look to be coming through well above freezing? TIA!

Tammie

[srainhoutx]

OH, and this is the whole reason why I came to post until I started reading....

It sure is a bit colder here today than forecast. It ended-up at 29F instead of just 32F. We need these freezes to cease b/c everything here is really blooming now. It started a few weeks ago but now most of the trees are leafing-out.

I posted in the "Post Your Low Temp" Topic. 28 here with a very heavy frost. I hope that Spring is not too far away! But I suspect we have not seen the last of the frosts. ~Sigh~

[txagwxman]

OH, and this is the whole reason why I came to post until I started reading....

It sure is a bit colder here today than forecast. It ended-up at 29F instead of just 32F. We need these freezes to cease b/c everything here is really blooming now. It started a few weeks ago but now most of the trees are leafing-out.

Trees will be fine...should be some nice weather today...tomorrow rain. Still border-line rain/snow mix just north of DFW tomorrow...

[wxman57]

One thing I did notice was that while the HPC did call the GFS and UKMET "outliers", that term was based upon each model's handling of the low once it moves off the East U.S. Coast, not the impact over Texas. The GFS did quite well (very well, actually) with the last event across Texas. Certainly it was much better than the NAM. We can't choose to believe it when it forecasts a storm and say it can't be trusted when it says not much will happen.

What it's saying for the storm on Sunday/Monday is that there isn't nearly as much moisture available and the lower-level temps will be considerably warmer. It's really difficult to use a model that we only see one panel every 24 hours of (ECMWF) and make a conclusion about its forecast of snow in an area. However, last night's 00Z ECMWF is quite similar to the GFS, with the exception of how each model handles the storm along the East Coast. I think the Euro has the better handle on it, as the GFS always seems to want to take these systems off to the east and out to sea too fast.

Here are a couple of meteograms and a plot of GFS-predicted snow accumulation for Sunday/Monday. I guess the GFS thinks that there will be some accumulation even with temps above freezing at the surface. Sort of like we had just north of Houston with the last event. It's forecasting a small area of 1" accumulations between Dallas and Wichita Falls. Currently, neither model appears to be forecasting any major event across Texas. Neither does the Canadian, though it didn't perform very well with the last event across Texas.

Dallas-Ft. Worth:


Wichita Falls:


Snow Forecast:

[txagwxman]

Back to the weather....I see some of our pro mets are online now. I know what the GFS is showing based on the 6z run, what about some of the other models for Friday and Sunday/Monday? Is there going to be enough moisture for even a lengthy cold rain? Are temps going to be borderline, or does it look to be coming through well above freezing? TIA!

Tammie

Going to be close in Denton tomorrow---too close to call. Sounding data shows < 32F 925 mb and above for Denton tomorrow afternoon/evening...but near 40F down at the surface with dewpoints in the mid 30s...maybe rain/snow mix at the end of the rain.

[DentonGal]

Back to the weather....I see some of our pro mets are online now. I know what the GFS is showing based on the 6z run, what about some of the other models for Friday and Sunday/Monday? Is there going to be enough moisture for even a lengthy cold rain? Are temps going to be borderline, or does it look to be coming through well above freezing? TIA!

Tammie

Going to be close in Denton tomorrow---too close to call. Sounding data shows < 32F 925 mb and above for Denton tomorrow afternoon/evening...but near 40F down at the surface with dewpoints in the mid 30s...maybe rain/snow mix at the end of the rain.

Thanks! Nobody is really talking much about Friday, and even though it may not be a "big" event, I thought Denton was borderline for snow/rain mix.

[wxman57]

Thanks! Nobody is really talking much about Friday, and even though it may not be a "big" event, I thought Denton was borderline for snow/rain mix.

GFS has all significant snow north of the Red River tomorrow. Just a trace in your area (mixed with rain) and temps above freezing. Looks reasonable.

[srainhoutx]

HPC does agree with wxman57's analysis concerning the East Coast and the GFS and it's ensemble members. What concerns me is the mention of Polar Air flooding the Central part of the CONUS. This blocking pattern has been relentless. As txagwxman metioned yesterday 2005= Hurricanes, Winter 2009/2010= El Nino Winter

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

VALID 12Z MON MAR 01 2010 - 12Z THU MAR 04 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/25 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-6 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A MODEST
INCORPORATION OF THE ECENS MEAN DAY 7 TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY
IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. FOR THE SOUTH
AND EAST...THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WAVE THE MODELS TRACK ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
WINTER SEASON HAS SEEN WAVE AFTER WAVE CROSS THE GULF OR DEEP
SOUTH...AND THEN TURN EITHER SUBTLY OR SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. IN MOST CASES...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHY ABOUT LIFTING THESE SYSTEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...WITH AN INEVITABLE CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS WITH
TIME. THE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE WEEKS AGO
IS AN EXAMPLE OF SUCH A CASE...WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOT
GIVING THE REGION ITS DUE UNTIL A MERE 36 HOURS FROM IMPACT. TOOK
THE CUE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND USED THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF...WHICH TRACKED CLOSEST TO THE COAST DAY 6. THIS MODEL HAS
THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM GLOBAL...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN CENTRES. THE GFS AND ITS
ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE PACKAGE LOOKED FLAT BASED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF
THIS SEASON. THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE SPLITTING
POINT OF WAVES COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH A COUPLE INTENSE
COLD MARITIME POLAR VORTICES SLATED FOR THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUAL FEED OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...THIS
REGIONS LOT IN LIFE IN THE TENACIOUS BLOCKING REGIME OF THE WINTER
OF 09-10.


CISCO

[wxman57]

Yeah, I don't see any break in sight, srain. No sign of spring on the horizon. No light at the end of the tunnel, just darkness at either end. This winter just won't quit.

Last February, Houston hit 70+ 21 times, including 3 days above 80. Average temperature was 5.9F above normal last February. This February, we've only hit 60 degrees 9 times with only a single day of 70+ (last Sunday's 72). Our average temperature this month is 6.8F below normal, and I think it'll drop to 7F below normal by Sunday.

[msstateguy83]

worth taking note 12z nam just coming in and its putting some pretty heavy precip amts across eastern,se ok
for tomorrow. i have not looked in great detail yet as to if it would be all winter precip or what but def some high amts on the
order of 0.75"-1.00"

[HockeyTx82]

Thanks! Nobody is really talking much about Friday, and even though it may not be a "big" event, I thought Denton was borderline for snow/rain mix.

GFS has all significant snow north of the Red River tomorrow. Just a trace in your area (mixed with rain) and temps above freezing. Looks reasonable.

Hmm, well a little snow never hurt anyone.

Off Topic: Is anyone on the board going to be a the Skywarn Training on Saturday here in Denton? I plan on being there, just curious if anyone else was going.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

[DentonGal]

Thanks! Nobody is really talking much about Friday, and even though it may not be a "big" event, I thought Denton was borderline for snow/rain mix.

GFS has all significant snow north of the Red River tomorrow. Just a trace in your area (mixed with rain) and temps above freezing. Looks reasonable.

Hmm, well a little snow never hurt anyone.

Off Topic: Is anyone on the board going to be a the Skywarn Training on Saturday here in Denton? I plan on being there, just curious if anyone else was going.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

Hmmm. I wasn't even aware there was a class. Is there a fee involved?

[Portastorm]

Katheria we need another good snowstorm so you can take more of those amazing pictures! Portastorm has been quiet lately, I wonder if he's been soaking in the reality of his Blizzard of AUS.

I enjoyed our Blizzard of AUS (apologies to Ozzy) and the 0.5 to 1.5 inches of beautiful snow we received on Tuesday ... if I am soaking in the reality of anything it is that the likelihood of any wintry precipitation in or near my zip code in the next few weeks is very, very slim. I really think winter, outside of a few more nights here and there of freezing temperatures, is over for my part of the state.

It will probably be next November before you see me posting and crowing about a GFS or Euro run which portends wintry weather for AUS.

[HockeyTx82]

Hmm, well a little snow never hurt anyone.

Off Topic: Is anyone on the board going to be a the Skywarn Training on Saturday here in Denton? I plan on being there, just curious if anyone else was going.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

Hmmm. I wasn't even aware there was a class. Is there a fee involved?

I don't think so. I emailed the FW NWS and this is what they said:


No registration needed, just show up and everything will be taken care of.


That being said I don't see anything that says we would have to pay. It's a volunteer thing so I would think not on our end. Anyone ever gone to one of these classes?

[Tejas89]

I don't think so. I emailed the FW NWS and this is what they said:


No registration needed, just show up and everything will be taken care of.


That being said I don't see anything that says we would have to pay. It's a volunteer thing so I would think not on our end. Anyone ever gone to one of these classes?

I would like to go to the one in Mansfield 3/27. Just to confirm, you just show up?

[Nederlander]

Seems to warm/dry for me to bite on any wintry precip.. Models do seem to be struggling with this system though.. GFS has performed well thus far so I am inclined to trust it before other models.. Nothing scientific about it, just by preference.

As far as the -removed- goes, yes it does exist, but shouldnt be made into a huge deal.. those who have been around here for a while know that the Pro Mets do a great job on keepin things in check here.. Just listen to those who have some credibility on here.. When someone comes out claiming a HUGE, MASSIVE system every time they see a blip on a model, then they lose credibility with me, especially when its 10 days out.. I dont like it when people do that because I feel like its an unnecessary alarm for people that dont know any better.. but for me personally, I can choose to agree with their statements or disagree with there statements.. I choose to listen to those with some credibility around here...